Cal Sports Report

Will Jaylon Tyson Be a First-Round NBA Draft Pick?

Experts split on whether Cal star Tyson will be taken on Wednesday or Thursday

Jake Curtis

Cal guard Jaylon Tyson
Cal guard Jaylon Tyson / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
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The NBA draft will take place Wednesday and Thursday, and the question for Cal’s Jaylon Tyson is this: Will he be selected in the first round on Wednesday or the second round on Thursday.

The experts seem to be split on the issue, with some believing he will be drafted late n the first round and others projecting he will go early in the second. And there is a difference between being taken on the first day of the draft instead of the second.

The NBA rookie wage scale sets the salary for each pick of the first round, with the first two years of a four-year contract usually guaranteed. The final pick of the first round will probably sign for approximately $13 million over four years.  The rookie wage scale does not apply to second-round picks, who must negotiate their own contracts (through their agents), usually with some guaranteed money but not always.  Last year, Jalen Pickett, signed a four-year, $8.2 million contract with the Denver Nuggets, with $5.8 million guaranteed. The last pick in the second round, Chris Livingston, signed a four-year contract worth $7.6 million with the Milwaukee Bucks, and it included $3.01 million guaranteed.

NBA teams find it much easier to release second-round picks than first-rounders.

There are 30 picks in the first round, which begins at 5 p.m. Pacific time on Wednesday, and Tyson was not one of the 25 players invited to attend the draft, according to Draft Express:

We looked at 12 reputable sites that posted mock NBA drafts.  Six project that Tyson will be taken in the first round, six say he won’t.

Sites that project Tyson to be taken in the first round:

CBS Sports (Colin Ward-Henninger)

No. 25 overall, to the New York Knicks

The Knicks are clearly ready to contend in the East, so Tyson -- a physical, NBA-ready prospect at 21 years old -- makes a lot of sense for them here. He'll benefit from a simplified role at the next level, where he's not relied upon for as much creation as he was at Cal. If everything clicks, he can be an excellent bench scorer with defensive upside, but he'll need to work on his efficiency. The key will be his 3-point shot, which profiles to be at least league average from the wing.

NBAdraft.net

No. 23 overall, to the Milwaukee Bucks, with this chart.

The Athletic (via the New York Times)

No. 28 overall, to the Denver Nuggets          

Tyson has gone on a real journey. After entering college as a top-40 player in his recruiting class, Tyson went from Texas to  to Cal in three years before finally emerging as an NBA prospect this past season. At 6-7 with long arms, he has great measurements for the NBA. He’s not an explosive player, but he’s powerful and isn’t bothered by contact, allowing him to get the most out of his length and athleticism. He averaged 19.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 47 percent from the field and 35.8 percent from 3.

The Nuggets tend to draft older players under general manager Calvin Booth, so it wouldn’t be surprising if they viewed Tyson as the kind of player who could potentially create shots in their second unit — especially if they lose  and promote  to the starting lineup if  departs in free agency.

Bleacher Report

No. 23 overall, to the Milwaukee Bucks

Pro comparison: Caleb Martin

Jaylon Tyson is top 20 on some team boards. He figures to get looks from teams starting in the mid-to-late first round after a breakout season averaging 19.6 points and 3.5 assists.

A 30.1 percent usage on a 13-19 California team does cast a cloud over his statistical production. But the eye test clearly shows a scorer with NBA traits and skills, including 6'6" size, ball-handling for creation/playmaking and tough shotmaking.

Net Scouts Basketball

No. 27 overall, to the Minnesota Timberwolves

CBS Sports (Cameron Salerno)

No. 28 overall, to the Denver Nuggets.

Tyson would be the perfect pick for an experienced team less than a year removed from winning an NBA title. Tyson was Cal's No. 1 option last season. He is a proven two-way wing who could contribute to the rotation from Day 1.

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Sites that don’t project Tyson to go in the first round

ESPN

No. 33 overall, third pick of the second round, to the Milwaukee Bucks

The Ringer

No. 39 overall, ninth pick of second round, to the Memphis Grizzlies

After transferring twice in college, Tyson blossomed with the ball in his hands at Cal. Will he be able to adjust to a downsized role in the NBA? A team like Memphis could be the best place for him to find balance.

CBS Sports (Gary Parrish)

Not in the first round (only one round projected)

Yahoo Sports

No. 31 overall, first pick of second round, to the Toronto Raptors

USA Today

Not in the first round (only one round projected)

Newsday

Not in the first round (only one round projected)

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Other Assessments of Tyson

ESPN's Top 100 Big Board

Tyson is ranked No. 31 (This is not a mock draft, but it indicates Tyson is right on the borderline.)

Strengths: Tyson is a big, versatile guard who nearly doubled his scoring average at Cal to lead the Pac-12 in points per game (19.6, from 10.7).

Weaknesses: He lacks high-end length and explosiveness, and he will likely need to scale down his shot selection and decision-making in a more compact off-ball role at the next level.

The verdict: Tyson was one of the most improved players in college basketball last season. He put the ball in the basket in a variety of ways, putting pressure on the rim and showing growth as a pull-up 3-point shooter. His consistency off the ball on both ends will be a point of interest moving forward.

NBA.com

Analysis

At 6-foot-6, Tyson has the size to get to the rim and match up with opposing wings on the defensive end. The 21-year-old’s biggest strength is his ability to create his own shot, but he has also proven to be a reliable spot-up shooter. Tyson is a willing passer and can find teammates as a playmaker in the pick-and-roll.

Projection

Tyson projects as a scoring option off the bench with secondary playmaking capabilities for second units. Tyson’s game has shades of Kelly Oubre Jr. and Caleb Martin due to his ability to create his own shot from all over the court while possessing the size and length to defend opposing wings. 

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Jake Curtis

JAKE CURTIS

Jake Curtis worked in the San Francisco Chronicle sports department for 27 years, covering virtually every sport, including numerous Final Fours, several college football national championship games, an NBA Finals, world championship boxing matches and a World Cup. He was a Cal beat writer for many of those years, and won awards for his feature stories.

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