Aaron Rodgers Predicted to Exceed Expectations and Underperform. Huh?

CBS Sports NFL experts have opposing opinions on how former Cal QB Rodgers will fare this season

New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers during the 2023 season opener. / Danielle Parhizkaran / USA TODAY NETWORK

Some feel former Cal quarterback Aaron Rodgers will return to his 2021 form when he won his fourth MVP and help the Jets reach the postseason.  Other believe just the opposite, that a 40-year quarterback coming off a torn Achilles will be a major disappointment.

So in CBS Sports’ predictions of which quarterbacks will exceed expectations in 2024 and which will underperform Rodgers is included in both groups, because the CBS Sports NFL experts disagree on how Rodgers will fare.

In the category of quarterback who will exceed expectations, Rodgers is joined by Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young, Russell Wilson and Jordan Love.  CBS Sports NFL writer Cody Benjamin offers this assessment of Rodgers in this category:

Benjamin: OK, so this is a tricky one, because on one hand, there's a ton of pressure on A-Rod to finally live up to his  hype. Is it possible we're actually underrating him a bit, though, considering he vanished from the scene due to injury in 2023, and is now widely considered more of an aging, risky, if big-name gamble? With familiar stars like Patrick Mahomes and  drawing easy praise in the AFC, Rodgers is poised to surge back into the conversation of top-shelf signal-callers with his offensive line at least better stocked this time around.

Rodgers's 2023 stats: One pass attempt, zero completions before injury

Rodgers 2022 stats: 8-9 regular season record, 3,695 yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions

Then Rodgers is also included in the group of quarterbacks expected to underperform, joining Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield and Justin Herbert in that category. CBS Sports NFL writers Shanna McCarriston and Jared Dubin provide these comments about Rodgers.

McCarriston: I grouped these two [Rodgers and Cousins] together because they are both coming off of injuries and getting up there in age. Rodgers is a popular pick for a quarterback who will underperform and there is reason for that. He moves in an odd way for a star quarterback who has something to prove this year, skipping team practices as one example. If I were a 40-year-old quarterback, coming off a season where I played just four snaps, with people wondering if I can be the same after an injury, I'd be doing everything to not give them extra material against me. Rodgers does not have me buying in at all and add the Jets' history of struggles, I can't see this going as well as New York fans are hoping. Call me a hater, but how can signing an aging quarterback who is coming off a major injury to a four-year, $180 million contract work out well? 

Dubin: It's fairly simple for Rodgers. I cannot get behind old dudes coming off Achilles tears suddenly snapping back and being their former selves. I'll let others bet on that.

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