ACC Football Game Picks: Dismiss Vegas Point Spreads at Your Own Peril

Can Cal cover on the road against 12.5-point favorite Auburn in front of 88,000 fans at Jordan-Hare Stadium?

Cal will face not only the Auburn Tigers but 88,000 of their fans / Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK

Picking games against the spread is not supposed to be easy.

But the ACC made things extra difficult last week.

We’re constantly impressed by the ability of the Las Vegas oddsmakers to so accurately set the line on college football games. Presumably, they do just as well with the NFL, NBA and the Premier Lacrosse League, but those endeavors are not our concern here.

Six games in particular from last week make our point: 

— Syracuse was favored by 15.5 points over Ohio and won by 16, 38-22.

— Virginia was a 21.5-point favorite over Richmond and won by 21, 34-13.

— Georgia Tech gave 21.5 points against Georgia State and won by 23, 35-12.

— North Carolina was favored by 1.5 points over Minnesota, and won 19-17.

— Duke was favored by 24.5 points over Elon and won 26-3.

This one is our favorite:

— TCU was favored by 9.5 at Stanford and led by 10 points, 34-24, with less than a minute left. So the Horned Frogs had the spread covered . . . until Stanford kicked a meaningless field goal with 36 seconds, making it a 34-27 final score and allowing the Cardinal to cover.

In spite of all that, we actually did fairly well on our picks last week. 

But don’t bet on us doing that every week.

Last week: Jake 11-5, Jeff 10-6

Season: Jake 12-6, Jeff 10-8

All picks against the spread 

Betting line from sisportsbook.com

Friday 

— BYU (plus-10.5) at SMU, 4 p.m., ESPN2

Jake: I’m not completely sold on SMU, but the Mustangs have won nine straight at home and averaged 53.9 points in those nine games. Pick: SMU

Jeff: SMU looked shaky in its opener against Nevada and skated past an overmatched Houston Christian. In other words, we still don’t know what to think about the Mustangs. Too many points here. Pick: BYU

— Duke (plus-2.5) at Northwestern, 6 p.m., FS1

Jake: Mississippi State transfer QB Mike Wright will do enough for Northwestern as a runner to beat Duke. Pick: Northwestern

Jeff: We’re assuming Northwestern is better than Elon, which Duke handled in its first game. Maybe not that much better. Pick: Duke

Saturday

— Georgia Tech (minus-2.5) at Syracuse, 9 a.m., ACC Network

Jake: Georgia Tech’s win over Florida State is not as impressive now as it was at the time, but QB Haynes King can carry the Yellow Jackets on the road. Pick: Georgia Tech

Jeff: With victories on two continents, Georgia Tech has won me over until further notice. Pick: Georgia Tech

— Pitt (plus-2.5) at Cincinnati, 9 a.m., ESPN2

Jake: Transfer quarterbacks go against each other, and we like Pitt’s Eli Holstein a little better than Cincy’s Brendan Sorsby. Pick: Pitt

Jeff: Oscar Robertson’s old school beat Pitt on the road last year. The Bearcats get this one at home with a cozy point spread. Pick: Cincinnati

— Cal (plus-12.5) at Auburn, 12:30 p.m., ESPN2

Jake: Auburn won by 70 points in its opener. We’re figuring Cal can keep it a little closer than that if running back Jaydn Ott is not hampered by his ankle injury. Pick: Cal

Jeff: The point spread has jumped around a bit. So it comes down to this:  Do I believe the Bears will stay within two touchdowns the road against a team that scored 73 points against a bad FCS team? Pick: Cal

— Duquesne (no line) at Boston College, 12:30 p.m., ESPN+/ACC Extra

Jake: The Eagles are still flying high after that road victory over Florida State.  Even if they are not totally focused on this game, they should win. Pick: Boston College

Jeff: BC would win this game if 61-year-old Doug Flutie were playing quarterback. The Eagles have Thomas Castellanos, and he’s terrific. Pick: Boston College

— Jacksonville St. (plus-28.5) at Louisville, 12:30 p.m., ESPN+/ACC Extra

Jake: Jacksonville State got smoked by Coastal Carolina last week, and Louisville coach Jeff Brohm is not averse to pouring it on. Pick: Louisville.

Jeff: These big point spreads are making me crazy. Pick: Louisville

— Charlotte (plus-22.5) at North Carolina, 12:30 p.m., ACC Network

Jake: North Carolina lost its starting quarterback for the season last week, but No. 2 QB Conner Harrell should be sufficient with running back Omarion Hampton running wild. Pick: North Carolina.

Jeff: Coming off a 19-17 road win over Minnesota, the Tar Heels will be ready to score some points in this one. Pick: North Carolina

— Marshall (plus-20.5) at Virginia Tech, 1:30 p.m., CW Network

Jake: Virginia Tech suffered an embarrassing loss to Vanderbilt and should bounce back, but Marshall and QB Stone Earle should score enough to cover. Pick Marshall

Jeff: Will the Thundering Herd beat the Hokies for a second straight season? Maybe not, but they will be competitive. Pick: Marshall

— Florida A&M (no line) at No. 19 Miami, 3 p.m., ESPN+/ACC Extra

Jake: The Rattlers may make this one closer than expected, but they can’t win the game.  QB Cam Ward should put up impressive statistics while he’s in there, but he may not play the whole game. Pick: Miami

Jeff: If the Hurricanes are serious about competing for a spot in the 12-team playoff, they need to breeze by A&M. Pick: Miami

— Cal Poly (no line) at Stanford, 4 p.m., ESPN+/ACC Extra

Jake: This is not a gimme. After all, Stanford lost to Sacramento State at home last year.  But the Cardinal will do enough this time. Pick: Stanford

Jeff: The Cardinal has lost nine straight home games against FBS opponents. Good thing the Mustangs are an FCS squad. Pick: Stanford

— Virginia (plus-2.5) at Wake Forest, 4 p.m, ESPN2

Jake: Wake Forest found a way to look bad in a 32-point victory over North Carolina A&T, and Virginia QB Anthony Colandrea should make the Demon Deacons look worse. Pick: Virginia

Jeff: Wake won just one of its final nine games last season so we’re not terribly impressed by the Demon Deacons’ 44-10 rout of VMI last week. Pick: Virginia 

— No. 15 Tennessee (minus-7.5) at No. 24 North Carolina State, 4:30 p.m., ABC

Jake: Wolf Pack QB Grayson McCall must play much better than he did in the opener for NC State to beat the spread.  We don’t think he can get it done. Pick: Tennessee.

Jeff: If the SEC vs. ACC matchup between Georgia and Clemson is any indication, we’re not hopeful for NC State, even with the points. Pick: Tennessee

— Appalachian State (plus-17.5) at No. 14 Clemson, 5 p.m., ACC Network

Jake: Clemson’s offense took a lot of heat for scoring just three points against Georgia, and it needs to do some scoring to cover the spread against Appalachian State, the preseason Sun Belt favorite. Pick: Appalachian State

Jeff: Dabo Swinney remains (always) optimistic about his Tigers, even after the beatdown by Georgia. App State is not Georgia. Pick: Clemson