ACC Football Review: SMU, Miami, Clemson Face Important Finales

SMU will play in the ACC tile game against either Clemson or Miami, and then the CFP possibilities follow from there, based, to some extent, on this weekend's game

SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings / Amber Searls-Imagn Images

College football analysts across the country will tell you there is only one ACC game of significance on Thanksgiving weekend – Saturday’s Miam-Syracuse matchup in Syracuse.

That is clearly the most important game because if Miami wins, the Hurricanes will play in the ACC championship game against SMU, and if Miami loses, Clemson will play the Mustangs in the conference title game on December 7.

However, SMU and Clemson also play games on Saturday that could impact whether they get into the College Football Playoff.

Of course, the ACC title game will play in the College Football Playoff with a good chance to get a top-four seed and a first-round bye.  We’re talking here about whether the loser of the conference championship game might also get into the 12-team postseason tournament, and there are a lot of ifs, ands and buts.

Let’s take a look -- and try to follow along:

No. 8 Miami (10-1, 6-1 ACC) at Syracuse (8-3, 4-3 ACC), 3:30 p.m. Eastern time

Miami is ranked No. 8 in the AP poll this week, and the College Football Playoff rankings typically closely parallel the AP rankings.

Step one for the Hurricanes is pretty simple. If Miami beats Syracuse, the Hurricanes will play SMU in the ACC championship game. The Hurricanes would win a tiebreaker with Clemson for the second ACC championship game berth.

The Hurricanes would then move on to the College Football Playoff, probably with a first-round bye, if they beat the Mustangs on December 7.

If Miami beats Syracuse, but loses to SMU, the Hurricanes might be left out of the College Football Playoff entirely, although it would be a close call.  How competitive Miami is in the conference title game might determine whether the Hurricanes are one of the 12 teams in the postseason playoff.

If Miami loses to Syracuse, the Hurricanes presumably would be out of the College Football Playoff mix.  Miani losses to Georgia Tech and Syracuse with its only notable win being a road victory over 7-4 Louisville would not make of an favorable impression on the CFP committee.

Syracuse will provide a challenge, especially on the Orange’s home field in the dome. Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord leads the nation in passing yards per game, and Miami quarterback Cam Ward is second.  McCord has been outstanding in the Orange’s short-passing game when he has time to throw, but Miami ranks among the nation’s leaders in sacks with 32. Ward, for all his talent, makes questionable decisions sometimes, and his play will determine the outcome.

No. 18 South Carolina (8-3) at No. 17 Clemson (9-2, 7-1 ACC), Saturday, noon Eastern time

Clemson has completed its ACC schedule, and its only hope to reach the ACC title game is for Miami to lose to Syracuse. Clemson’s game on Saturday will be over by the time Miami takes the field in Syracuse, but the Tigers still have incentive to win even before it knows its title-game fate.

If the Tigers lose to South Carolina, Clemson’s only chance to reach the College Football Playoff would be for Miami to lose to Syracuse and Clemson to beat SMU in the ACC title game.

A loss to South Carolina along with a loss in the conference title contest would no doubt keep the Tigers on the outside of the 12-team field.

A win over South Carolina, even if Clemson does not reach the conference title game, would make things interesting in terms of the Tigers’ College Football Playoff chances. But they would probably be left out, considering they had a lopsided loss to Georgia and also lost to Louisville.

A Clemson win over South Carolina, a berth in the ACC title game, and a subsequent loss to SMU would give Clemson three losses, more than an ACC team can afford to have to reach the College Football Playoff.

Interestingly, Clemson's chances of making the College Football Playoff would be better if it beats South Carolina and does not play in the ACC title game than it would be if Clemson beats South Carolina, gets a berh in the ACC championship cones, but loses in the ACC title game.

In all likelihood, Clemson probably needs to win Saturday, have Miami lose to Syracuse, then beat SMU on December 7 to get a College Football Playoff berth and perhaps a first-round bye.

Beating South Carolina will be difficult. The Gamecocks have won five in a row, including wins over Texas A&M and Missouri.

Cal (6-5, 2-5 ACC) at No. 9 SMU (10-1, 7-0 ACC), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. Eastern time (2:30 p.m. Dallas time)

SMU assured itself a berth in the ACC title game by beating Virginia. (Just take our word for it.) And we can assume the Mustangs will be somewhere around ninth in the CFP rankings released Tuesday.

If SMU beats Cal, then wins the ACC title game, the Mustangs would likely get a top-four seed and the all-important first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.

If SMU beats Cal, and does so convincingly, then loses in the conference title game in a close contest, it would be a tough call as to whether the Mustangs and the ACC would get another berth in the CFP. They would have a good argument to be included, but the ACC found out last year that doesn’t count for much.

If SMU loses to Cal but wins the ACC title game, it would get into the 12-team playoff, but its chances for a first-round bye or to host a first-round game might be in jeopardy.

If SMU loses to Cal and loses the ACC title game, the Mustangs are out of contention for a spot in the CFP with three losses.

The Mustangs need to beat Cal to maximize their CFP chances.

One other thing: We claim SMU guaranteed itself a spot in the ACC championship game by beating Virginia 33-7. But in retrospect SMU earned that title-game berth back on October 26 with a pregame coaching move that should earn Rhett Lashlee ACC coach of the year based on that move alone.

Before its game against Duke that day, SMU coaches spoke to officials to make sure SMU coaches and officials knew the rule when it comes to attacking the snapper on place kicks. Apparently a defensive player can legally jump over the offensive line in an attempt to block a field goal as long as that player does not put his hands on the snapper. SMU coaches made sure officials were aware of that.

And wouldn’t you know it, Duke was in position to attempt a game-winning, 30-yard field goal with three seconds left in a tie game.

Lashlee called a timeout before Duke’s Todd Pelino attempted the kick, and reminded his players of the rule and what the Mustangs wanted to do.

SMU’s Jahfari Harvey jumped completely over the offensive line without touching anyone and blocked the kick, sending the Mustangs to an overtime win.

Here is that play:

ACC Player of the Year Standings

--1. Quarterback Cam Ward, Miami – Hard to argue with a nation-leading 34 TD passes and just seven interceptions for a team competing for the ACC title.

--2. Quarterback Cade Klubnik, Clemson – A stat-stuffing game against The Citadel gives Klubnik the nation’s second-best touchdown-to-interception margin (29 TDs, 4 interceptions).

--3. Quarterback Kevin Jennings, SMU – The Mustangs are unbeaten with Jennings as their starting quarterback. He has thrown 17 TD passes and has run for 315 yards.

--4. Quarterback Kyle McCord, Syracuse – McCord will be a serious contender if he has a big game against Miami.

--5. Running back Omarion Hampton, North Carolina – He is still fourth in the country in rushing with 1,475 yards, but North Carolina’s 3-4 conference record works against him.

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Top Five ACC Teams

(We rank based on which teams have had the best results, not which teams we believe are the best teams)

--1. SMU (10-1, 7-0 ACC) – The Mustangs hang onto the top spot, but it becomes more tenuous as BYU, which beat SMU, keeps losing.

--2. Miami (10-1, 6-1 ACC) – The Hurricanes beat Louisville, and Clemson lost to the Cardinals, so Miami has a razor-thin edge over Clemson.

--3. Clemson (9-2, 7-1 ACC) – The Tigers are done with regular-season ACC play and face South Carolina on Saturday.

--4. Louisville (7-4, 5-3 ACC) – Despite the embarrassing loss to Stanford, Louisville earns this spot based on its victory over Georgia Tech.

---5. Georgia Tech (7-4, 5-3 ACC) – The Yellow Jackets topped Norh Carolina State  with freshman quarterback Aaron Philo leading a late-game touchdown drive.

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