ACC Football Review: Three Teams for Two Spots

Miami's loss puts the Hurricanes, SMU and Clemson in a race to see which ACC team gets a chance to reach the College Football Playoff

Georgia Tech fans take down a goal post after he win over Miami / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The possibility that the ACC will get only one team into the College Football Playoff makes the race to the ACC title game that much more important. The winner of the ACC championship game will get into the CFP, possibly with a first-round bye, but it's uncerain whether any other ACC team will be among the 12 teams chosen for the national championship tournament.

Pitt may have removed itself from the race with two straight losses and a challenging remaining schedule that includes Clemson, Louisville and Boston College.

So it looks like it’s three teams for two spots, with SMU, Miami and Clemson vying for one of those berths. And since none of those three teams plays either of the other two in the regular season, we are apt to have a three-way tie for first place or a two-way tie for second place that may involve a complicated tiebreaking scenario.

It could come down the teams’ winning percentage against common opponents, or even the teams’ comparative ranking in the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics.

And if that does not break the tie, we’d have coin flips, and wouldn’t that be an interesting way to see which team or teams have a chance to reach the CFP.

Let’s look at the three teams competing for the two berths.

SMU (5-0 in the ACC)

The Mustangs were the biggest winners of the weekend because they did not play. Even though they dropped in the AP poll from 13th to 14th, they are in a better posittion to reach the ACC title game.
They now stand alone atop the standings as the only team unbeaten in conference play.

None of SMU’s three remaining opponents – Boston College (2-3), Virginia (3-3) and Cal (1-4) – has a winning conference record, and the Mustangs should be favored in every one. 

If SMU drops into a tie for one of the ACC title-game berths its victory over Louisville would probably loom large.

Chance of reaching the ACC title game: 70%.

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Miami (5-1 in the ACC)

The Hurricanes have played with fire much of the season and they finally got burned.

They overcame a 25-point, third-quarter deficit to beat Cal, overcame a 10-point third-quarter deficit to beat Virginia Tech and overcame an 11-point, third-quarter deficit to beat Duke.  And Miami nearly rallied from a 12-point, third-quarter deficit to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday.

However, Cam Ward’s fumble with 1:32 remaining doomed Miami to a 28-23 loss. Even a team with a Heisman Trophy-caliber quarterback cannot escape desperate situations every week.  It finally caught up to the Hurricanes, who dropped eight spots in the AP poll, from No. 4 to No. 12.

However, Miami is still in position to land a spot in the ACC title game if it finishes in a tie for second place with Clemson because Miami beat Louisville and Clemson lost to the Cardinals.

Miami’s final two conference games are against Wake Fores (2-3) and Syracuse (3-3), and the Hurricanes will be favored in both, but Miami has shown in its close calls to mediocre teams and its loss to Georgia Tech that it is capable of struggling against anyone.

The current situation favors Miami, but its erratic play does not.

Chance of reaching the ACC title game: 55%

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Clemson (6-1 in the ACC)

The Tigers looked like the best team in the conference through much of the season, but they are not trending in the right direction now.

Clemson looked very ordinary in the home loss to Louisville last week and was less than impressive in Saturday’s 24-14 victory over Virginia Tech when the Tigers committed three turnovers. Nonetheless Clemson moved up two spots in the AP poll to No. 17. That's noteworthy because last week's College Football Playoff rankings of the top 15 teams were nearly identical to last week's AP rankings. You can get a pretty accurate gauge of what the top dozen teams in the CFP rankings will be his week by looking at he AP top 25.

Clemson’s one remaining ACC game, against Pitt on the road, will not be a pushover although it will be easier if Pitt quarterback Eli Holstein does not play. 

Holstein left Saturday’s loss to Virginia with an apparent head injury so his status for next week is uncertain. Holstein has not been as effective recently, completing just 54.9% of his passes with no touchdowns and one interception over the past two games. But he would still be an improvement over his replacement, Nate Yarnell, who was 4-for-12 with two picks against Virginia.

Clemson’s major shortcoming in its bid for a title-game berth is that it lost to Louisville, a team both SMU and Miami beat.  That common-opponent tiebreaker could doom Clemson.

Clemson’s best hope is to beat Pitt and have Miami suffer another surprising loss to one of its two remaining opponents.

Chance of reaching the ACC title game: 40%

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And at the Other End We Have Florida State

--Florida State’s 49-point margin of defeat in Saturday’s 52-3 loss to Notre Dame ties the Seminoles’ 2018 loss to Clemson and the 1973 loss to Florida for the largest margin of defeat in program history. 

--Head coach Mike Norvell's response? He fired his offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and wide receivers coach on Sunday. Talk about a dramatic reaction. It's drastic but undestandable based on he fact that the Seminoles rank last among 134 FBS teams in scoring with 13.3 points per game and are 101st in scoring defense, allowing 29.8 points per game.

--According to several reports, Florida State becomes the first team ever to start a season 1-9 after being ranked in the preseason top-10. We can’t verify that bit of negative trivia, but we know Notre Dame finished 2-8 in 1956 after being ranked No. 3 in the preseason, and Illinois went 1-8 after being No. 5 in the 1954 preseason poll. AP began ranking teams in 1936, 88 years ago.

--Florida State has lost nine games in a season for the first time since 1974, when the Seminoles went 1-10 in the first of two seasons under head coach Darrell Mudra. That was two years before Bobby Bowden was hired.

--Florida State has won just one game, and it probably should have lost that game to Cal, which dominated the statistics in the 14-9 loss to the Seminoles.

--Florida State will not lose next weekend – it has a bye.

--The Seminoles next game is a November 23 home game against Charleson Southern, a 1-9 FCS team that has losses to Lindenwood and The Citadel and this past weekend lost to Tennessee-Martin 40-14. If Florida State loses to Charleson  Southern . . .

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ACC Player of the Year Standings

--1. Quarterback Cam Ward, Miami – He failed to pull out another comeback win, but he still leads the nation in touchdown passes with 32.

--2. Quarterback Cade Klubnik, Clemson – He has been less impressive lately, but his 26 TD passes rank third in the country and he leads a team that’s still in he national championship race.

--3. Running back Omarion Hampton, North Carolina – He didn’t play his week and North Carolina is just 5-4, but he is sixth in he nation in rushing with 1,178 yards.

--4. Quarterback Kevin Jennings, SMU – The Mustangs are unbeaten with Jennings as their starting quarterback.

--5. Wide receiver Xavier Restrepo, Miami – Restrepo’s numbers (934 receiving yards, 10 TDs) allow him to edge out running backs Phil Mafah of Clemson and Brashard Smith of SMU for the final spot.

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Top Five ACC Teams

(We rank based on which teams have had the best results, not which teams we believe are the best teams)

--1. SMU (8-1, 5-0 ACC) – The Mustangs’ only loss was to unbeaten, seventh-ranked BYU by three points early in the season.

--2. Miami (9-1, 5-1 ACC) – But the Hurricanes suddenly look vulnerable.

--3. Clemson (7-2, 6-1 ACC) – The Tigers face Pitt this week, then play – The Citadel?

--4. Louisville (6-3, 4-2 ACC) – All three of the Cardinals’ losses were by seven points, and all were to teams ranked among the top 25 in this week’s AP poll.

---5. Georgia Tech (6-4, 4-3 ACC) – The win over Miami is worth something.

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