Cal Sports Report

ACC Football Review: Will SMU, Miami, Clemson Get Into College Football Playoff?

A Clemson win over SMU would seem to provide the best chance for two ACC teams to reach the 12-team playoff

Jake Curtis

Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord (right) celebrates with tight end Jamie Tremble following the Orange win over Miami
Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord (right) celebrates with tight end Jamie Tremble following the Orange win over Miami / Rich Barnes-Imagn Images
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OK, so we know SMU and Clemson will meet in the ACC championship game on Saturday at 8 p.m. Eastern time in Charlotte, North Carolina.  We also know SMU is a slight favorite, with both FanDuel and DraftKings making the Mustangs 2.5-point favorites as of Sunday morning.

But we have questions about how the results of that game will affect the chances of SMU, Clemson and Miami to reach the 12-team College Football Playoff. The field for the College Football Playoff will be announced on Sunday.

The CFP rankings to be released Tuesday will give a better idea of where things stand, although CFP rankings figure to closely parallel the AP rankings released Sunday.

Which ACC teams would get into the College Football Playoff if SMU beats Clemson in the ACC championship game?

In that scenario SMU, which would be 12-1, would get into the College Football Playoff as one of the top four seeds and receive a first-round bye.

Even with its loss to Syrcuse, Miami (10-2 and ranked No. 14 in this week's AP poll) possibly could make the 12-team field and play a first-round CFP game on the road. But it seems more likely that the Hurricanes would be left out in favor of Alabama, a three-loss team ranked No. 11 in the AP poll. The Miami-or-Alabama debate would be a close call and would draw criticism from ACC fans for a second straight year if the Hurricanes are left out.

Clemson, which would be 9-4, would be out with four losses, even though it reached the ACC title game and Miami didn’t.

An SMU win is the scenario that most favors Miami’s chances, but an SMU win also means the ACC might get just one team in the College Football Playoff.

Miami’s chances will become clearer when the CFP rankings are announced Tuesday.

Which ACC teams would get into the College Football Playoff if Clemson beats SMU in the ACC title game?

This is more complicated.

Clemson would get in as the ACC champ but it would be a 50-50 shot whether it would get a first-round bye.

The Big Ten and SEC champs would grab two of the top-four seeds.

The fact that Notre Dame, which is ranked fourth in the AP poll released Sunday, is not eligible for a top-four seed because it’s not in a conference would help Clemson’s chances of getting a bye.

Clemson, which is ranked 18th in the AP poll, might challenge Boise State for the No. 3 seed if Boise State beats UNLV in the Mountain West championship game.  However, a 12-1 Boise State team, which is ranked 10th in this week’s AP poll and whose only loss was to Oregon, would probably receive a higher ranking than a 10-3 Clemson team that beats SMU. So the Broncos are more likely to get that No. 3 seed as the Mountain West champ.

That would leave one bye spot available, and surging 12th-ranked Arizona State (10-2) might claim the No. 4 seed as the Big 12 champ if it beats Iowa State (10-2) in the conference title game.

So if Boise State, Arizona State and Clemson win this week, the Tigers probably would get a berth as the No. 11 or 12 seed and play a first-round CFP game on the road.

If Clemson wins and either Boise State or Arizona State loses, Clemson might sneak into the No. 4 seed and get a first-round bye.

It would be sticky for SMU and Miami.  SMU, at 11-2, would have a good shot at getting an at-large berth to the College Football Playoff and play a road game in the first round as a No. 11 or 12 seed.

Miami, at 10-2, might sneak in as a No. 11 or 12 seed, but the Hurricanes could be left out in favor of Alabama (9-3) for the final CFP spot in a close call depending on what happens elsewhere. South Carolina (9-3) also would have a case to get a berth rather than Miami. The Hurricanes would be on shaky ground.

In short, Miami is hoping SMU beats Clemson to have its best chance of reaching the College Football Playoff. The ACC could conceivably get as many as three teams into the CFP, but is more likely to get just two berths and might get just one.

What is this nonsense that a team won’t get “punished” for losing a conference title game?

We heard time and again from the TV analysts in recent days that a team shouldn’t get “punished” for reaching a conference championship game and losing.

Why not?

This theory suggests that a team can lose its conference title game and not lose ground in its bid for a College Football Playoff berth.  It applies specifically to Georgia, which the experts say will be invited to the 12-team national championship playoff even if it loses to Texas and suffers its third loss of the season.

The conference title game is a football game presumably against a quality opponent, so its resuls should be judged in that context, like many other games during the season. Afterall, some conference title-game berths are determined by tie-breaker scenarios that may not favor the most deserving teams.

Florida State got “punished” for its performance in the ACC title game last year, and the Seminoles won that game.  But because the Florida State offense looked so pitiful in that game without quarterback Jordan Travis, the CFP committee determined that unbeaten Florida State did not have enough offense to play in the four-team College Football Playoff.

Why is planting a team’s flag on the opponent’s field after a big road win a thing now?

Talk about a provocative maneuver.

A visiting team planting a flag on the opponent's home field after a big road win nearly always leads to postgame fights. The most publicized one was in Columbus, Ohio, but it also occurred in two games involving ACC teams.

North Carolina players did not take kindly to North Carolina State players planting its flag on the Tar Heels field . . .

. . . and Florida State coach Mike Norvell blamed Florida coach Billy Napier when the Gators planted their flag in Tallahassee, Florida.  Norvell refused to shake Napier’s hand, then ripped the Florida flag away.  Finishing 2-10 after being ranked No. 10 in the preseason poll can make a coach a little testy.

Look for the NCAA or conferences to create a rule to prohibit flag-planting in the furture.

ACC Player of the Year

Who Should Win: Quarterback Cam Ward, Miami – Nation-leading 36 TD passes, 7 interceptions for a team ranked 14th in the AP poll released Sunday.

Who Should Be the Runnerup: Quarterback Cade Klubnik, Clemson -- 29 TD passes, 4 interceptions, 437 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs for a team in the ACC title game.

Who Should Be Third: Quarterback Kevin Jennings, SMU – His numbers weren’t eye-popping, but the Mustangs are 9-0 with him as their starter and he ranks 10th in the nation in passer rating.

Who Should Be Fourth: Quarterback Kyle McCord, Syracuse – He’s the national leader in passing yards and is fourth in TD passes (29) for a team that went 9-3 and overcame a 21-0 deficit to beat Miami.

Who Should be Fifth: Running back Omarion Hampton, North Carolina – Hampton is second in the nation in rushing yards (1,660), but his team is just 6-6 overall and 3-5 in the conference.

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Jake Curtis
JAKE CURTIS

Jake Curtis worked in the San Francisco Chronicle sports department for 27 years, covering virtually every sport, including numerous Final Fours, several college football national championship games, an NBA Finals, world championship boxing matches and a World Cup. He was a Cal beat writer for many of those years, and won awards for his feature stories.

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