ACC Game Picks: Cal Faces Oregon State as Non-Conference Foes

The two played for decades as Pac-12 rivals, where the Beavers won the past two and four of the past five meetings.

Gevani McCoy prepares to pass against Purdue / Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Everything has been new for the Cal football team, playing its first season in the Atlantic Coast Conference. And it’s been a rough start — 0-4 with the four defeats by a combined total of nine points.

Which leads us to Saturday and the Bears’ hiatus from ACC play for a non-conference game at home against Oregon State. Yep, the same team Cal has played virtually every season for six decades as a conference rival.

The Beavers feature a transfer quarterback in Gevani McCoy, but Cal knows him from a year when he led Idaho to a 17-0 lead at Memorial Stadium before the Bears rallied for a 31-17 victory. 

Coach Justin Wilcox talks in the video above about McCoy and the OSU offense.

The Bears under Wilcox, now in his eighth season, have followed a predictable pattern. They have been excellent in non-conference play, compiling a 17-4 record (excluding bowl games).

That includes wins over some legitimate competition: North Carolina (twice), Ole Miss (twice), BYU and Auburn. One of the defeats, a 24-17 loss at Notre Dame in 2022, still stings the Bears after a phantom offsides penalty against Cal on a Notre Dame field goal attempt — made by an ACC officiating crew — gave the Irish a first down and led to a touchdown.

The point is, Cal has been excellent outside conference, not nearly so good against league opponents. Including 0-4 this season, the Bears are 21-41 against conference foes since the start of Wilcox’s regime in 2017.

So what does that mean for this week? Oregon State is officially a non-conference opponent, but the Beavers beat Cal the past two years and four of the past five as a Pac-12 rival.

Like most everything else this season, good luck figuring this one out.

Week 9: 

Last week: Jeff 4-4, Jake 3-5,

Season: Jeff 51-37, Jake 50-38

All picks against the spread 

Betting line from vegasinsider

Thursday

— Syracuse (plus-5.5) at No. 20 Pitt, 4:30 p.m., ESPN

Jake: Neither team is as good as its record suggests, but the quarterback who has the better day between Syracuse’s Kyle McCord and Pitt’s Eli Holstein will be the winner. Holstein has a knack for producing when it matters most. Pick: Pitt

Jeff: The Orange’s surprising home defeat to Stanford prevents this from being a matchup of two 6-0 teams. Both teams are coming off byes. The spread worries me a bit because two of the Panthers’ wins — including the 17-15 escape vs. Cal — were by four points or fewer. Still . . . Pick: Pitt 

Friday

— Louisville (minus-6.5) at Boston College, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2

Jake:  Boston College is 3-0 a home and Louisville has lost three of its last four games.  But this is the ACC where nothing is as it seems. Pick: Louisville

Jeff: Yes, Louisville has lost three of its past four games, but the defeats to Notre Dame, SMU and Miami — teams with a combined record of 19-2 — all were close. BC’s 21-point loss to Virginia Tech was not encouraging. Pick: Louisville

Saturday

— Georgia Tech (plus-9.5) at Virginia Tech, 9 a.m., ACC Network

Jake: We don’t know if Georgia Tech QB Haynes King will play Saturday, so we’re picking blind.  But picking blind may make our choices more accurate. We’ll throw a dart and pick . . . Pick: Virginia Tech

Jeff: The Hokies have scored 73 points the past two games and Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King remains questionable after missing last week’s game vs. Notre Dame with an injury. Pick: Virginia Tech

— North Carolina (plus-5) at Virginia, 9 a.m., CW Network

Jake: North Carolina had a bye this past weekend, giving the Tar Heels time to mull over its four-game losing streak. That time off should be a major advantage for the Tar Heels, but we just don’t trust UNC or coach Mack Brown. Pick: Virginia

Jeff: The Tar Heels have allowed 166 points during their four-game losing streak. Virginia will welcome that defense after back-to-back games vs. Louisville and Clemson. Pick: Virginia

— Wake Forest (minus-3) at Stanford, 12:30 p.m., ACC Network

Jake: These are two bad teams, as indicated by the fact that Wake is just a slight favorite against a Stanford team that has lost its last four games by a combined margin of 122 points. Road teams have a winning record in ACC games, so that’s enough of reason to pick the Deacons. Pick: Wake Forest

Jeff: The Demon Deacons are winless at home vs. three FBS teams but are 2-0 on the road. That will be enough to win and cover the spread against the reeling Cardinal. Pick: Wake Forest

— Oregon State (plus-10) at Cal, 1 p.m., ESPN2

Jake: Cal is a two-score favorite even though it’s riding a four-game losing streak.  Those four losses were by a combined margin of nine points, though. Maybe the Bears will figure out how to close this week, although we have no evidence to support that. Pick: Cal

Jeff: The Bears will win another one sooner or later, but the four-game trend isn’t encouraging. I feel much the same way I did before the NC State game — Cal should win, but concerned the point spread is too big. Pick: Oregon State

— Florida State (plus-21.5) at No. 6 Miami, 4 p.m., ESPN

Jake: Miami did not win any of its three ACC games by more than seven points and could easily have lost two of them, so this is a perplexing spread.  But Florida State’s quarterback situation is a disaster. Remember in preseason, when this game was expected to be for a berth in the ACC championship game? Pick: Miami.

Jeff: As disappointing as the 1-5 Seminoles have been, they’ve only lost once by more than 16 points. On the other hand, the Hurricanes are averaging 48 points and will be eager to try to impress the CFP committee with a decisive win. Pick: Miami

— No. 21 SMU (minus-11) at Duke, 5 p.m., ACC Network

Jake:  SMU is rolling, and QB Kevin Jennings seems to be getting better. Luck has helped Duke to its 6-1 record, and that luck has run out . . . hasn’t it? Pick: SMU

Jeff: SMU’s three-point loss to still unbeaten BYU isn’t looking so bad these days. The Mustangs are rolling since then, 4-0 and averaging more than 45 points. Duke has had a terrific year, but basketball season is almost here. Pick: SMU