Analyzing What Would Constitute a Successful Season for Cal's Defense

Cal’s 2026 defense is a mystery, a mix of potential with limited proven production.

Guessing how the Bears’ defense will perform in 2026 is a risky venture. Determining what would constitute a successful season for the Bears’ defense is difficult, but the bar is not set nearly as high for the Bears’ defense as it is for Cal’s offense.

Only two players who were regular starters for Cal’s defense last year – outside linebacker Jayden Wayne and safety Aidan Manutai – are back this season, and only Wayne seems assured of being a starter this season.

A third player, safety Isaiah Crosby, was a starter when the 2025 season began but he missed most of the season with an injury. He’s a likely starter this season, but it’s not a certainty.

Transfers are likely to fill seven or eight of the 11 starting spots on defense. Most of them were not regular starters for their previous teams but have the potential to be standout players.

Phil Steele’s preseason college football magazine did not have must respect for the Bears’ defensive units, ranking its defensive line as the 13th-best line in the 16-team ACC, the Bears’ linebackers 15th in the conference and the Cal secondary ninth.

The responsibility of the Bears’ defense is be effective enough to give the offense a chance to win games. But what does that mean? Does Cal need to rank in the top half of the ACC in scoring defense. Does it just need to limit opponents to less than 30 points a game?

We will give our opinion on what would be considered a successful season for the defense after considering a few points

Defensive Mindset

Defense carried Cal to whatever success the Bears had under Justin Wilcox. Cal finished in the top half of the conference (ACC and Pac-12) in scoring defense in six of the past eight seasons, and the Bears wound up in the top three in three of those seasons.

Wilcox made his reputation as a defensive coordinator, which accounts for much of the Bears’ effectiveness on that side of the ball.

Current Cal head coach Tosh Lupoi also made his reputation as a defensive coordinator, turning Alabama and Oregon into defensive monsters. He could have the same impact on Cal’s defense that Wilcox did.

Star Power

Cal’s defenses in recent years were highlighted by first-class inside linebacker play and outstanding secondaries.

Eleven defensive backs who played at Cal in the past seven seasons are currently on preseason NFL rosters, and most of them will be around for the regular season.

There are no proven stars on Cal’s current defense, but three transfers have the potential to become all-conference-caliber players – redshirt sophomore outside linebacker Solomon Williams (from Texas A&M), redshirt sophomore safety Kingston Lopa (from Oregon) and redshirt freshman inside linebacker AJ Tuitele (from USC). None of them was a regular starter last season, but if any or all emerge as standouts in 2026, Cal may have something.

Youthful Coordinator

Cal’s new defensive coordinator Michael Hutchings is just 31 years old and has never been a coordinator. That doesn’t rule out success; it just means we must withhold judgment.

Having a proven defensive coordinator as the head coach should assist Hutchins in his transition to defensive scheming, game-planning and signal-calling.

Hutchings comes from the NFL – he coached the Minnesota Vikings’ defensive backs last season – but it’s a good bet he will run a defense similar to what Oregon ran under Lupoi.

Cohesiveness

With Cal putting so many new players into key defensive positions, cohesivenes becomes an issue. The best defenses typically have players who have played together for several years. That creates a familiarity and a comfort level that allows players to perform at their best.

If Cal maintains the same defensive starting lineup throughout the season, the defense should improve as the season progresses. Coordination of the parts is critical for a defense, and that can only be achieved by playing together.

The Schedule

Only one of Cal’s three nonconference opponents – UNLV – is sure to have a strong offense. The Rebels averaged 37.2 points last season and may put up similar numbers this season.

UCLA, which opens its season on September 5 at Cal, was terrible on offense last season, averaging 18.2 points per game, but should be better this season with a new head coach (Bob Chesney) and a talented quarterback (Nico Iamaleava) who is expected to be better in his second season with the Bruins. How much better is the question.

The only ACC team expected to have an elite offense is Miami, and the Bears won’t face the Hurricanes this season.

SMU, which has an outstanding quarterback and offensive line, will be a major challenge, especially in Dallas, and Virginia’s effective offensive line will not be a picnic for Cal's defense on the road either.

However, overall, Cal’s defense won’t be facing a steady stream of offensive powerhouses.

The Bottom Line

If we assume Cal’s offense is going to score points, the Bears’ defense merely needs to avoid being dominated. Duke won the ACC championship last year while ranking 14th in the conference in scoring defense, allowing 29.4 points per game

Cal’s defense must to avoid major mistakes, so discipline is the key.

If Cal finishes in the top half of the ACC (top eight) in scoring defense and holds opponents under 26 points a game, that would constitute a successful season for the Bears’ defense and should lead to eight or nine wins.

Ten ACC teams yielded fewer than 26 points a game in 2025, so it is an attainable goal. The two worst ACC teams – Syracuse and Boston College -- gave up more than 32 points per contest, and both finished with 1-7 conference marks.

Last season, Cal allowed 27.2 points per game and still wound up with a winning record (7-6).

Cal's 2026 offense has a chance to be quite productive. We’re not expecting it to be as explosive as it was in 2015, with Jared Goff running Sonny Dykes’ wide-open, pass-happy offense, but that team allowed 30.7 points per game and still finished 8-5.

For Cal to get where it wants to go in 2026, Cal’s defense needs only to hold its own, and a defensive ranking in the middle of the ACC would indicate success.

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