Cal Sports Report

Cal a Surprisingly Big Favorite over Stanford in the Big Game

Despite Saturday’s results, the Golden Bears are two-touchdown favorites over their archrival

Jake Curtis

Members of the Cal axe committee carry the Axe onto the field at Stanford in 2023
Members of the Cal axe committee carry the Axe onto the field at Stanford in 2023 / Robert Edwards-Imagn Images
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Even though Stanford has a better conference record than Cal, and even though Stanford had a much better result than the Golden Bears this weekend, Cal is still a heavy favorite against the Cardinal for Saturday’s Big Game at Cal.

On Sunday, Draft Kings lists Cal as a 14-point favorite over Stanford, while FanDuel has the Golden Bears as a 13.5-point pick over the Cardinal.

A lot of betting sites have yet to post opening point spreads for college games, and it would not be a bit surprising to see the Cal-Stanford point spreads at Draft Kings and FanDuel shrink over the next few days.   But for now, Cal is a heavy favorite, even though . . .

Even though Cal, a 10.5-point favorite, lost at home to Syracuse 33-25 on Saturday.

Even though Stanford, a 21-point underdog, upset 19th-ranked Louisville 38-35 on Saturday.

Even though Stanford is 2-5 in ACC play and Cal is 1-5 in conference play.

Even though Stanford beat Syracuse on the road earlier this season and Cal lost to Syracuse at home this week.

Cal has defeated Stanford in the past three Big Games, and Cal’s overall record this season (5-5) is better than Stanford’s (3-7). So that may explain the point spread to some extent.

Also, Cal’s statistics are much more impressive than Stanford’s.

The Golden Bears rank 10th in the ACC in scoring at 28.3 points per game, and the Cardinal is 16th at 22.2 points.

Cal ranks first in the conference in scoring defense, allowing 20.7 points per contest, while Stanford is 17th and last in scoring defense, giving up 34.6 points per game.

Cal leads the ACC and is third in the country in turnover margin at plus-14 (22 takeaways, 6 turnovers), while Stanford is 16th of 17 ACC teams and tied for 101st nationally in turnover margin at minus-5 (14 takeaways, 19 turnovers). Only seven FBS teams have turned the ball over more than the Cardinal.

Still, a two-touchdown point spread?

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Jake Curtis
JAKE CURTIS

Jake Curtis worked in the San Francisco Chronicle sports department for 27 years, covering virtually every sport, including numerous Final Fours, several college football national championship games, an NBA Finals, world championship boxing matches and a World Cup. He was a Cal beat writer for many of those years, and won awards for his feature stories.

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