Cal a Two-Score Underdog Against SMU on Saturday

Both the Bears and No. 9 SMU have something to play for in their regular-season finales

Cal wide receiver Trond Grizzell makes a catch against Stanford / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Unlike the past two weeks when Cal was a double-digit favorite and failed to cover both times, this week Cal is a two-score underdog in its final regular-season game against SMU on Saturday in Dallas.

Both FanDuel and Draft Kings list SMU as an 11.5-point favorite over the Bears as of Sunday morning.

That seems like a reasonable point spread considering Cal is 6-5 overall, 2-5 in the ACC and had to rally at home to beat a struggling Stanford team 24-21 on Saturday in a game in which Cal was a 14.5-point favorite. Meanwhile, SMU is 10-1 overall, 7-0 in the conference and riding an eight-game win streak, including a 33-7 road win over Virginia on Saturday.

The perception tha Cal has a chance against SMU because the Mustangs have already clinched a spot in the ACC championship game and have nothing to play for is not quite accurate. Even though SMU is guaranteed a spot in the December 7 conference title game in Charlotte, North Carolina, the ninth-ranked Mustangs need to win to increases their chances of getting into the College Football Playoff.

If SMU loses to Cal, then loses to either Miami or Clemson in the title game the following Saturday, the Mustangs would be unlikely to get one of the 12 berths to the College Football Playoff. If SMU beats Cal, and looks impressive in doing so, SMU might sneak into the CFP if it then loses a close contest in the ACC championship game. A lot of ifs, ands and buts would go into the selection process if that scenario comes into play.

Of course, SMU would guarantee itself a spot in the College Football Playoff if it wins the ACC championship game not matter what it does against Cal.

Cal, meanwhile, is already bowl-eligible and can't improve its standing in the ACC a lot by beating the Mustangs. But a seventh win would assure Cal of its first winning season since 2019 and just its fourth in the past 13 seasons. The Bears are already guranteed of having their 15th straight losing conference record, the longest active streak in te country, but beating a ranked team for the first time this season would gratify the Bears after near misses against hen-No. 8 Miami and then-No. 22 Pitt.

Cal has not beaten a top-10 team since it upset eighth-ranked Washington State 37-3 in 2017. But that game was in Berkeley.

The Bears will have nothing to lose Saturday, so it will be interesting to see how they perform with the pressure of bowl-eligibility no longer a factor.

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