Cal, CFP Bowl Projections: Cal Sliding Out of the Postseason Picture

Miami and Clemson continue to be the ACC's representatives in the College Football Playoff projections, but Indiana has entered the 12-team tournament according to several experts

Cal defensive lineman T.J. Bollers / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

When Cal was 3-0 every reputable college expert who posted bowl projections had the Bears in a postseason game. A few left Cal out of their bowl predictions when the Bears slipped to 3-3. But now, after the 24-23 loss to North Carolina State left Cal's record at 3-4, the Bears are on the outside looking in.

Ten of the experts we cited projected all bowl games, and seven of those 10 predicted that Cal would not get a bowl berth. The only three who still expect Cal to be in a postseason game are ESPN's Kyle Bonagura (LA Bowl), College Football News (Gasparilla Bowl) and Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury (ESPN pool bowl).

And Wilner added this comment to Cal's bowl situation:

ESPN bowl Team: Cal Schedule: vs. Oregon State, at Wake Forest, vs. Syracuse, vs. Stanford, at SMU. Comment:The last game of the season (at SMU) is likely the only instance in which the Bears (3-4) will be a substantial underdog. But with four ACC losses coming by a total of nine points, Cal has repeatedly shown an expertise in snatching defeat from the brink of victory.

Cal might get back into the postseason picture if it beats Oregon State in Berkeley on Saturday, and the Bears are 10-point favorites in that game as of Monday.

(Remember, teams that were in the Pac-12 in 2023 will go to Pac-12-affliated bowls this year. The pecking order of Pac-12-affiliated bowls is listed at the end of this report.)

We cited 12 reputable sites that projected a College Football Playoff field, and Miami and Clemson remain the ACC's prospective representives in that 12-team tournament. All 12 experts had Clemson in the field and only one (College Football News) did not have Miami in its 12-team College Football Playoff. Seven of the 13 predicted Miami would be one of the four teams receiving a first-round bye, and five projected that Clemson will get that first-round bye.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of this week's projections is the addition of Indiana to the CFP party. Six of the 12 experts who projected a College Football Playoff field put the Hoosiers in their 12-team field for the first time.

It should be noted that some of the experts projected what the 12-team CFP field would look like if the selections were made today, while others predicted what the College Football Playoff field is likely to be at the end of the regular season.

Here are the projections of 10 experts who predicted all the bowl matchups, plus two more experts who projected only a College Football Playoff field

ESPN (Kyle Bonagura)

Cal Bowl

LA Bowl – Cal vs. UNLV

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

No. 1 – Oregon

No. 2 – Georgia

No. 3 – Miami

No. 4 – Boise State

First Round

No. 5 – Penn State

No. 6 – Ohio State

No. 7 – Texas

No. 8 – Indiana

No. 9 – Clemson

No. 10 – BYU

No. 11 – Iowa State

No. 12 – Notre Dame

.

ESPN (Mark Schlabach)

Cal Bowl

No Cal bowl (Washington in LA Bowl, Arizona in Independence Bowl)

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

No. 1 – Oregon

No. 2 – Georgia

No. 3 – Miami

No. 4 -- BYU

First Round

No. 5 – Ohio State

No. 6 – Penn State

No. 7 – Texas

No. 8 – Tennessee

No. 9 – Clemson

No. 10 – Indiana

No. 11 – Iowa State

No. 12 – Boise State

.

CBS Sports (Jerry Palm)

Cal Bowl

No Cal bowl ( USC in LA Bowl, Oregon State in Independence Bowl)

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

No. 1 – Georgia

No. 2 – Ohio State

No. 3 – Miami

No. 4 – Iowa State

First Round

No. 5 – Oregon

No. 6 – Texas

No. 7 – Penn State

No. 8 – Alabama

No. 9 – BYU

No. 10 – Clemson

No. 11 – Texas A&M

No. 12 – Boise State

.

Action Network (Brett McMurphy)

Cal Bowl

No Cal bowl (Arizona State in LA Bowl, Utah vs. Oregon State in Independence Bowl)

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

No. 1 – Oregon

No. 2 – Georgia

No. 3 – Miami

No. 4 – Iowa State

First Round

No. 5 – Ohio State

No. 6 – Penn State

No. 7 – Texas

No. 8 – Clemson

No. 9 – LSU

No. 10 – Texas A&M

No. 11 – BYU

No. 12 -- Army

.

Athlon Sports (Steven Lassan)

Cal Bowl

No Cal bowl (Washington in LA Bowl, TCU vs. Tulane in Independence Bowl)

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

No. 1 – Oregon

No. 2 – Georgia

No. 3 – Miami

No. 4 – Kansas State

First Round

No. 5 – Texas

No. 6 – Ohio State

No. 7 – Penn State

No. 8 – Tennessee

No. 9 – Clemson

No. 10 – LSU

No. 11 – Notre Dame

No. 12 – Boise State

.

247 Sports (Brad Crawford)

Cal Bowl

No Cal bowl (Utah in LA Bowl, Arizona in Independence Bowl)

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

No. 1 – Oregon

No. 2 – Georgia

No. 3 – Clemson

No. 4 -- BYU

First Round

No. 5 – Texas

No. 6 – Ohio State

No. 7 – Miami

No. 8 – Penn State

No. 9 – Notre Dame

No. 10 – Indiana

No. 11 – Texas A&M

No. 12 – Boise State

.

USA Today (Erick Smith)

Cal Bowl

No Cal bowl (Washington in LA Bowl, Arizona State in Independence Bowl)

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

Georgia

Ohio State

Clemson

Kansas State

First Round

Texas

Oregon

Penn State

LSU

Miami

Notre Dame

Iowa State

Boise State

.

College Football News

Cal Bowl

No Cal bowl (Colorado in LA Bowl, Utah in Independence Bowl)

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

No. 1 – Ohio State

No. 2 – Georgia

No. 3 – Clemson

No. 4 – Iowa State

First Round

No. 5 – Oregon

No. 6 – Penn State

No. 7 – Notre Dame

No. 8 – Texas A&M

No. 9 – Texas

No. 10 – Tennessee

No. 11 – Boise State

No. 12 – Washington State

.

Bleacher Report (David Kenyon)

Cal Bowl

Gasparilla Bowl – Cal vs. South Carolina

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

No. 1 – Oregon

No. 2 – Georgia

No. 3 – Clemson

No. 4 – Iowa State

First Round

No. 5 – Texas

No. 6 – Ohio State

No. 7 – Penn State

No. 8 – Notre Dame

No. 9 – Miami

No. 10 – Indiana

No. 11 – Tennessee

No. 12 – Boise State

'

San Jose Mercury News (Jon Wilner, CFP projections only)

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

No. 1 -- Georgia

No. 2 -- Oregon

No. 3 -- Clemson

No. 4 -- BYU

First Round

No. 5 -- Ohio State

No. 6 -- Texas

No. 7 -- Penn State

No. 8 -- Tennessee

No. 9 -- Notre Dame

No. 10 -- Miami

No. 11 -- Indiana

No. 12 -- Boise State

.

San Jose Mercury News 2 (Jon Wilner, Pac-12-affiliated bowls only)

Cal Bowl

Cal in ESPN bowl (see Pac-12-affiliated bowls below)

.

The Athletic (Stewart Mandel, CFP projections only)

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

No. 1 – Georgia

No. 2 – Ohio State

No. 3 – Miami

No. 4 – Iowa State

First Round

No. 5 – Oregon

No. 6 – Penn State

No. 7 – Texas

No. 8 – Tennessee

No. 9 – Clemson

No. 10 – LSU

No. 11 – BYU

No. 12 – Boise State

.

The Athletic (Austin Mock, based on metrics and algorithms, CFP projections only)

College Football Playoff

First-Round Byes

No. 1 – Oregon

No. 2 – Miami

No. 3 – Georgia

No. 4 – Iowa State

First Round

No. 5 – Ohio State

No. 6 – Penn State

No. 7 – Texas

No. 8 – Notre Dame

No. 9 – Clemson

No. 10 – Indiana

No. 11 – Tennessee

No. 12 – Boise State

.

2024 pecking order of Pac-12-affliated bowls, which applies to teams that were in the Pac-12 in 2023

College Football Playoff

Alamo Bowl (December 28, San Antonio)

Holiday Bowl (December 27, San Diego)

Las Vegas Bowl (December 27, Allegiant Stadium)

Sun Bowl (December 31, El Paso, Texas)

LA Bowl (December 18, SoFi Stadium)

Independence Bowl (December 28, Shreveport, Louisiana)

ESPN bowl pool

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