Cal Nearly a Three-Touchdown Favorite in Opener Vs. UC Davis

Golden Bears have beaten FCS opponents in recent years, but have not covered the spread in most of those games

Cal Golden Bears faced UC Davis in 2022 / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

Cal has not announced who its quarterback will be for its season opener against UC Davis on Saturday, but bettors don’t seem to care as the Golden Bears are nearly three-touchdown favorites for the game.

However, the results of Cal’s recent games against FCS teams such as Davis suggest gamblers should be careful betting on the Bears when they are huge favorites against teams from the lower division.

Cal opened as a 23.5-point favorite against Davis, but that spread has gotten a little smaller.  As of Sunday, Fan Duel lists Cal as a 20.5-point favorite over the Aggies, while Bally Bet and BetRivers both list Cal as a 19.5-point favorite. (A lot of betting sites don’t have a betting line for the game.)

Cal is 6-0 against FCS teams over the past five seasons, but the Bears are only 1-5 against the spread in those games. All six games were against teams from the Big Sky Conference.

The last time Cal faced UC Davis was the 2022 opener, and the Golden Bears were 21.5-point favorites in that game at kickoff time.  Cal won the game by 21 points (34-13), barely failing to cover the spread and no doubt annoying folks who bet on Cal to beat the spread.

UC Davis scored first in that game, and Cal led by just 11 points midway through the third quarter. The Bears barely outgained the Aggies 415-387, and UC Davis got to the Cal 24-yard line late in the fourth quarter, threatening to make the final score closer.

Teddye Buchanan had a team-high eight tackles and an interception for UC Davis in that game, and he is expected to be a starting inside linebacker for Cal in Saturday’s game against his former teammates.

The Aggies finished 6-5 in 2022 and 7-4 last year, and they are picked to finish fourth the 12-team Big Sky Conference this year in both the coaches and media preseason polls.

Cal head coach Justin Wilcox has not announced whether the Bears’ starting quarterback for Saturday’s opener will be Fernando Mendoza, Chandler Rogers of CJ Harris, and comments he made last week suggest he might not name a starter at all before the Bears offense takes the field for the first time Saturday.

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