Heisman Trophy Odds for Jaydn Ott, Fernando Mendoza, Chandler Rogers

All three Cal players are on the Heisman board in at least one major betting site, but Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel is the preseason favorite

Jaydn Ott at the ACC Kickoff media day / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Standout Cal running back Jaydn Ott is getting plenty of preseason accolades, including preseason first-team all-ACC and Doak Walker Award watch list, but even if he has a great season statistically, he has two things working against him when it comes to his chances of winning the Heisman Trophy.

1. The Heisman winner has to be on a team that is ranked at the end of the regular season.  No one is picking the Bears to be ranked, and few expect Cal to be an ACC contender in 2024, so Cal would have to pull off a surprisingly successful season to get Ott into Heisman discussions. (The last Heisman winner to play for a team that was unranked in the final regular-season poll was UCLA’s Gary Beban in 1967, but the AP ranked only 10 teams that year and the Bruins were No. 4 in the next-to-last poll. There is the inexplicable case of 1956 Heisman winner Paul Hornung, the only Heisman winner who played for a team with a losing record as his Notre Dame team went 2-8 that season.)

2. Quarterbacks usually win the Heisman. (The last three Heisman winners and 10 of the past 12 have been quarterbacks. Before the turn of the century, running backs regularly won the Heisman, but today’s college offenses are so dependent on quarterbacks that they get most of the attention and most of the rewards.)

Not surprisingly Ott is a longshot to win the Heisman on the major betting sites, but you could win a lot of money if you bet on Ott and he somehow becomes the first Cal player ever to win the Heisman Trophy.

You could also win money if you bet on either of the Cal quarterbacks vying for the starting job – Fernando Mendoza and Chandler Rogers – and your pick wins the Heisman. 

Not every betting site has Ott, Mendoza or Chandler on its board, but three sites featured on Vegas Insider have odds for Mendoza, two have odds for Ott and one has odds for Rogers.

Ott’s Heisman odds:

+12500 or 125-to-1 (Caesars Sportsbook)

+20000 or 200-to-1 (Draft Kings)

So if you be bet $100 on Ott to win the Heisman on the Draft Kings site, and Ott wins, you would take home $20,000

Mendoza’s Heisman odds:

+20000 or 200-to-1 (Bet365)

+25000 or 250-to-1 (Caesars Sportsbook)

+50000 or 500-to-1 (Fan Duel)

If you bet $100 on Mendoza to win the Heisman at the Fan Duel site, you would win $50,000 if he did it.  Nice payoff, but considering he still has not officially won the starting job for a team that is picked to finish 10th in the ACC standings it’s quite a gamble.

Rogers’ Heisman odds:

+20000 or 200-to-1 (Caesars Sportsbook)

Even if Rogers does not win Cal’s starting job for the opener, he might become the Bears’ starting quarterback sometime during the season.  That was the case for Rogers last year at North Texas, where he did not become a starter until the third game.

A $100 bet on Rogers to win the Heisman at Caesars Sportsbook would bring back $20,000 if he pulls it off.

The Favorites

Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel is the betting favorite on most sites at the moment, with his odds ranging from +550 (11-to-2) to +700 (7-to-1), depending on the site. These are long odds for someone who is the favorite, suggesting this Heisman race is wide open.

Next in line is Georgia quarterback Carson Beck at +650 (13-to-2) to +900 (9-to-1).

Third in the betting is Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers at +750 (15-to-2) to +1400 (14-to-1).

Ohio State quarterback Will Howard, Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava, Mississippi quarterback Jaxson Dart and Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe are next in line according to the oddsmakers of the various betting sites.

What do they all have in common? They are all quarterbacks whose team is ranked in the top 15 of the preseason AP poll. In fact, each of the top six teams in that preseason poll has its quarterback among the top seven Heisman favorites.

The last five Heisman winners were all among the top three preseason favorites the year they won it.

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