Cal Football: Is Bears' Offense Better Than It Was Last Year?

Scoring points again has been the Bears' shortcoming despite their strong defense

Cal's offense is still its chief shortcoming, but is the Bears' offense better than it was last year?

“Yes,” said Bears offensive coordinator Beau Baldwin. “I definitely believe that.”

Maybe, but the answer is more complicated than the question. And the loss of quarterback Chase Garbers for several games in the heart of the season makes the assessment more difficult.

It doesn’t take much research to realize the Bears still must improve their offense significantly to be a Pac-12 title contender. Afterall, they have not reached the 30-point mark in any of their six games this season.

“We have to get a lot better,” Baldwin said. “There’s no doubt about it. There’s certain things we’re doing well at times, but it’s very spurty.”  

(Click here for a video of Baldwin's assessment of the offense at the halfway point.)

But have they shown measurable progress from last season? Are they on the right track?

Let’s start by comparing the numbers:

The Bears finished last in the Pac-12 in both scoring and total offense in 2018. Through six games this season, Cal is again last in the conference in scoring and total offense.

Bottom line, Cal’s offense was weak last year and continues to be subpar.

The Bears averaged slightly more yards of total offense per game last year (343.5) than this season (331), but the Bears are averaging more yards per play this year (5.0) than they did a year ago (4.9). Let’s call those numbers a wash.

The running game has not been as efficient. Despite the encouraging 197-yard rushing game from Christopher Brown Jr. in the opener against UC Davis, Cal is averaging 3.4 yards per rushing attempt this year, worst in the Pac-12, after averaging 4.2 yards per run last season.

The Bears scored more points in 2018 (21.5 per game) than they have this season (20.3 per game), but there is an important asterisk here: Cal’s defense and special teams accounted for six touchdowns last season, and those two units have not scored a point this season. If we consider only the points scored by the offense, Cal’s scoring average of 20.3 points this season is significantly better than the 18.3 points the offense accounted for in 2018.

Perhaps more important is that Cal has turned the ball over only eight times this season, an average of 1.33 times per game. Last year, Cal had the most turnovers in the country with 31, or 2.38 per game.

That number alone suggests considerable progress on the offensive end.

The other significant stat is explosive plays. Cal had only eight plays of more than 30 yards in 13 games last season, and the Bears have already produced eight plays of 30 yards or more this year. Cal has had 25 plays of at least 20 yards in 2019.

No one is ready to call Cal’s offense explosive, but at least it offers a hint of big-play potential this season.

And if you watched Garbers perform in the Mississippi game or the first half of the Arizona State game, it was pretty obvious Cal was making major strides in a passing game that had been a major shortcoming in 2018.

“The passing game really started to take off, I thought,” Cal head coach Justin Wilcox said.

(Click here for a video of Justin Wilcox's evaluation  of the offense through six games.)

Here are some highlights of that Mississippi game, when Garbers had the best performance of his career:

Garbers’ passer rating this season is about the same as Washington’s Jake Eason’s, if that comparison means anything to you.  

So it seemed pretty clear that Cal’s offense was better than last year’s attack . . . . as long as the Bears had Garbers and a fairly healthy offensive line, that is.

The injury that will sideline Garbers indefinitely set Cal’s offense back, and the Bears could not overcome it as well as some other Pac-12 teams that experienced injuries at the quarterback position.

“If you asked me coming off Ole Miss and early in the first half against Arizona State, I thought we were progressing very well,” Baldwin said. “We have to be able to, then, deal with some adversity and overcome that a little faster.”

Cal finished its game against Oregon with just one projected offensive-line starter in the game. The running game cannot survive through the rest of the Pac-12 season if some of those linemen don’t return.

And then there’s Devon Modster, Cal’s quarterback until Garbers returns, which will be at least a few more games. Modster was better against Oregon than he was against Arizona State, but he is still completing less than half of his passes (46.9 percent) with three interceptions and one touchdown pass. The Bears have scored just 17 points in the six-plus quarters in which he has been Cal’s quarterback.

(Click here for a video of Modster assessing his progress.)

Projecting how much Modster will improve over the next few games is tricky. Remember, in his five games at UCLA in 2017, he completed 64.6 percent of his passes for 647 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. That year he was 7-for-12 with a touchdown and no picks against a Washington team that led the Pac-12 in defense, and he went 8-for-12 with a touchdown and no interceptions against a Utah squad that was third in the Pac-12 in total defense.

Cal won’t forget that Modster went 14-for-18 for 191 yards in the Bruins’ 30-27 win over the Bears in 2017, and he was 21-for-34 for 298 yards, two scores and no interceptions in a bowl-game loss to Kansas State.

But can Cal can get the 2017 production out of Modster in 2019?

The Cal receivers represent a noticeable improvement over last season. Former Michigan player Kekoa Crawford has 10 catches and two touchdown receptions despite missing the past two games, junior-college transfer Trevon Clark has increased his production each week and is becoming a go-to receiver, and tight end Jake Tonges is catching passes no one expected him to grab. Add the increased big-play potential of Nikko Remigio and the consistent play of Jordan Duncan and you have a receiving corps that surpasses expectations.

Sure, Cal could use a receiver with 4.3 speed who could blow by defensive backs, but the wide-receiver room is not the issue. The issues – as they were at the start of the season -- are quarterback play and the offensive line.

Although it’s hard to know what to expect while Modster is the quarterback, it’s safe to say the Cal offense was better in the games Garbers played than it was last year.

Better is a relative term, though.