Cal in NFL Fantasy: Aaron Rodgers, Keenan Allen Get High Marks
Since former Cal quarterback Jared Goff, the weekly Fantasy whipping boy, played Thursday night in the Rams’ victory over New England, we have limited Fantasy expertise on the remaining ex-Cal players in NFL games on Sunday.
So we will look at Fantasy NFL rankings of former Cal quarterbacks and wide receivers:
(By the way, Goff had a decent – but not great – game in the Rams’ 24-3 victory over the Patriots after virtually every Fantasy expert advised Fantasy players to bench Goff this week, which is the advice they give practically every week.)
On to the Fantasy rankings for NFL Week 14 of ex-Cal players (and you will note that wide receiver Chad Hansen is part of the ex-Cal NFL contingent now):
---Let’s start with Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who hopes to keep his MVP bid going against the Detroit Lions.
The five Yahoo Fantasy experts are close in their ranking of Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes for the No. 1 spot, with Rodgers barely beating out Mahomes for the top position. Three of the experts picked Rodgers No.1, but two have him third, behind Mahomes and Russell Wilson:
Yahoo has this to say about Rodgers, giving you more numbers and information than you can digest:
If you were to break down every quarterback into fantasy points per actual pass attempt (no rushing), Rodgers has been head and shoulders above everyone. He's averaged 0.665 points per pass attempt, while the closest quarterback (Patrick Mahomes) has averaged 0.593 points per attempt. That's the reason he's the only quarterback in the top-eight with fewer than 152 rushing yards (he has just 87). Despite being a strictly pocket passer, he's finished with 18.2-plus fantasy points in 11-of-12 games. You can essentially do whatever you want against the Lions, as evidenced by the 1.56 PPR points per offensive play against them, which ranks as the second-most only to the Falcons. The Packers themselves average 1.58 PPR points per play, which leads the league. There are going to be a lot of fantasy points to go around for the Packers this week. Not only does Rodgers lead the league with his 36 passing touchdowns, but the Lions have allowed a passing score on 5.57 percent of pass attempts, the fifth-highest number in the league. There have been just two quarterbacks all year who've averaged fewer than 7.09 yards per attempt against them, which highlights the consistency of their struggles. The Lions rank as the 11th-worst team in terms of average pressure-rate, which is going to be an issue for them, as Rodgers has a ridiculous 126.9 QB Rating while throwing from a clean pocket. The Lions are also down their top two cornerbacks in Desmond Trufant and Jeff Okudah. The Lions are one of just two teams who Rodgers has thrown fewer than three touchdowns against this year, though Davante Adams did have to leave that game early. The only concern for Rodgers would be that the game is not competitive, and the running backs do all the work against a cakewalk Lions run defense. You're still playing him as a safe QB1.
NFL.com also has Rodgers in the No. 1 quaterback spot, but interestingly has Wilson at No. 6.
Sports Illustrated was not quite so kind, placing Rodgers as the No. 3 quarterback, behind Mahomes and Wilson this week.
The three Fantasy experts at Fantasy Data also put Rodgers at No. 3, behind Wilson and Mahomes.
The most intriguing ranking system is provided by CBS Sports, which rates how confident its experts are that Fantasy players should start a given player this weekend in a non-PPR lineup:
Rodgers gets a perfect 10.0 confidence level, which matches teammate wide receiver Davante Adams for the only perfect confidence rating in the league. Even Mahomes is just a 9.6.
CBS Sports provides this explanation:
The line wants us to believe: Nothing's stopping Green Bay. The Lions got really, really lucky to a) score 34 points last week and b) win a game. Their defense is terrible, which should put Aaron Rodgers in a spot to sling four touchdowns, which his implied team total thinks is within reason. It's not too much asking the Packers to win by eight, though I do think the oddsmakers could have gotten away with giving the Lions more points.
---On to Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen, who is currently tied with Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs for the league lead in receptions with 90 even though Allen had just five catches for 48 yards last week.
Yahoo’s group of experts ranks Allen as the No. 4 wide receiver this week, behind Adams, D.K. Metcalf and Tyreek Hill.
Here is what the Yahoo said about Allen:
We don't need to harp on last week's performance, as Herbert simply had a bad day at the office. It was just the second time all season Allen finished outside the top-36 wide receivers with Herbert under center. This is the type of game we needed after that one, as the Falcons have allowed the second-most fantasy points in the league to wide receivers (43.1 PPR points), behind only the Seahawks. They've faced the fifth-most targets (22.3 per game) but have also allowed the second-most yards (207.9 per game) to wide receivers, leading them to allow a massive 9.31 yards per target, so the efficiency is certainly there. The reason they've allowed the second-most points per game is due to the lack of touchdowns, as receivers have scored one every 24.4 targets, which ranks as the eighth-most in football. That has been due to the fact that tight ends have been money in the red zone against them, stealing some of that production. Between wide receivers and tight ends, the Falcons allow a massive 58.8 PPR points per game. There have been nine wide receivers who've surpassed 100 receiving yards against them. Do we really need to continue? Allen is a locked-and-loaded high-end WR1.
NFL Fantasy lists Allen one spot higher at No. 3, ahead of Hill.
Sports Illustrated slots Allen in the No. 4 wide-receiver position
CBS Sports gives Allen a confidence rating of 9.7, lower than only Adams and Hill among wide receivers, and only Rodgers and running back Derrick Henry also have higher confidence ratings.
(Cover photo of Keenan Allen by Rich Barnes, USA TODAY Sports)
---Poor Marvin Jones Jr., the Detroit Lions receiver who had a great game last week but is not getting much love this week against the Packers.
Yahoo experts rank him as the No. 25 wide receiver this week for non-PPR Fantasy players, and CBS Sports gives him a confidence rating of only 6.7.
And NFL.com’s Adam Rank says Fantasy players should sit Jones this week:
I also didn’t love starting Jones last week (in fairness, I went with Jarvis Landry , who was fine), but that was a mistake. Mostly because I didn’t realize it was going to be the Bears defense that was going to let us down. I mean nobody was near Jones. And I love the way Jaylon Johnson has played this season. That was a mistake. But this isn’t point chasing. This week, however, the Lions have the Green Bay Packers. And that means Jaire Alexander . Jones was targeted four times when covered by Alexander. He had three receptions for 19 yards. Jones did manage a touchdown, but that came against Christian Kirksey . Jones has played really well recently. But I would have a hard time starting him in this matchup. I know, new offensive coach. However, I’m staying away if I can.
---And finally there is Chad Hansen, who was elevated from the practice squad to the Houstaon Texan' active roster last week and responded with five receptions for 101 yards last Sunday.
Yahoo ranks him 73rd among wide receivers this week, which doesn’t sound great but puts him above players such as A.J. Green, Larry Fitzgerald, Alshon Jeffery and Danny Amendola.
Fantasy Pros said this about Hansen
Hansen came out of nowhere last week and put up over 100 receiving yards. It's unlikely that that happens again here, but he's worth monitoring heading into this game. If he has another solid performance here, he could be someone you consider rolling out in week 15.
---By the way, here is how Fantasy Data assessed Goff’s Thursday performance:
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff didn't play great in Week 14, but he was serviceable against the New England Patriots on Thursday night. He finished the game 16-for-25 for 137 yards to go with one touchdown and an interception. He also added four carries for 11 yards and a touchdown that really helped to buoy his night. This performance wasn't great, but the Rams offense didn't need to rely on their QB to get the job done in convincing fashion. Goff has a couple of good matchups over the next few weeks, so he could be a valuable streamer in the thick of the fantasy playoffs.
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