Cal's Improved Offense Faces Big Test Against UCLA's Strong Defense

The Golden Bears have been more productive this year than in any of Justin Wilcox's six previous seasons as head coach

There is no question that Cal’s 2023 offense is the best in Justin Wilcox’s seven seasons as head coach.

There also is no question the Bears’ offense will face its toughest test of the season when it plays UCLA in Pasadena on Saturday night.

The Bears this season are averaging better than 30 points and 400 yards of offense for the first time since Wilcox took over, and their four games scoring 40 points or more against FBS opponents are by far the most under Wilcox.

“Yeah, I think we’ve taken a step forward in terms of putting points on the board,” Wilcox said. “I think it starts up front with the offensive line.”

The improved play of the offensive line is one of two major differences from previously Wilcox offenses, which were always among the worst in the Pac-12. Cal averaged 3.6 yards per rushing attempt last season and is up to 4.74 yards per carry this year, and Jaydn Ott is fourth in the country in rushing, averaging 118 yards per game. Cal quarterbacks were sacked 31 times last season compared with 17 times this year.

So credit must go to first-year Cal offensive line coach Mike Bloesch, and the improvement of the offensive linemen, because the personnel is much the same as last year when the offensive line was the biggest weakness on the team.

The other difference is the addition of offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, whose version of the spread Air Raid offense is a major change from the pro-style offense run by Bill Musgrave the previous three years. 

Spavital said this week that his offense typically does not find a groove until the second year in the system, which suggests good things from the offense in 2024 when the Bears join the Atlantic Coast Conference. It will also be the second season in the system for redshirt freshman quarterback Ferando Mendoza, whose presence as the starter has increased Cal’s offensive potential. Cal has scored 40 points or more four times this season, and three of those have come during Mendoza’s six starts.

Here’s a comparison of Cal’s offense during Wilcox’s seven seasons, starting with the year, followed by points scored, yards per game, and number of games in which Cal scored 40 points or more against FBS foes.

2023 – 31.45 points, 404.2 yards per game, 4 games of 40-plus points vs. FBS teams

2022 – 23.92 points, 364.58 yards per game, 1 game of 40-plus points vs. FBS teams

2021 – 23.75 points, 386 yards per game, 1 game of 40-plus points vs. FBS teams

2020 – 20.25 points, 319.5 yards per game, 0 games of 40-plus points vs. FBS teams

2019 – 21.23 points, 328.5 yards per game, 0 games of 40-plus points vs. FBS teams

2018 – 21.54 points, 343.5 yards per game, 1 game of 40-plus points vs. FBS teams

2017 – 27.75 points, 384.5 yards per game, 1 game of 40-plus points vs. FBS teams (and that one game of 44 points came in a double-overtime game).

How Cal’s 2023 numbers will stack up against UCLA is a different matter.

Lets take a look at the Bruins’ defensive numbers:

64.8 – Rushing yards allowed per game, first nationally

2.17 – Yards allowed per rushing attempt, first nationally

40 – Number of sacks, tied for second nationally

16.73 – Points allowed per game, tied for 10

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nationally

298.7 – Yards allowed per game, 12

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nationally

And that does not consider the individual impact of UCLA’s Laiatu Latu, a good bet to be the Pac-12 defensive player of the year and a likely first-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft. He leads the nation in tackles for loss with 20.5 and is second in sacks with 13.

Oh, and by the way, UCLA’s Gabriel Murphy has 13 tackles for loss and 7.0 sacks.

Spavital says it’s imperative that Cal run the ball effectively against UCLA, despite the Bruins’ remarkable success against the run. If the Bears are unable to produce a running threat, it will turn Latu and Murphy loose against Mendoza and the Cal passing game will suffer.

The Bears' problems on defense have been noted often on this site, and that continues to be a concern, but we will find out just how good Cal’s 2023 offense is on Saturday night, a game Cal needs to win to become bowl-eligible.

Cover photo of UCLA's Laiatu Latu by Darren Yamashita, USA TODAY Sports

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