Cal Football Season Preview, Part 4: Best-Case, Worst-Case Scenarios

Cancellation of the first game was a frustration, but what could happen if everything goes right for the Golden Bears from this point -- or if everything goes wrong

This is the fourth in a four-part series previewing Cal's 2020 season. We looked at strengths and weaknesses in Part 1, Questions facing the Bears in Part 2, and Cal starts and potential stars in Part 3. 

The off-again on-again 2020 Pac-12 season defies logical predictions, especially after Cal’s opening game against Washington was canceled and with the Nov. 14 game at Arizona State also in jeopardy.

But we forge ahead with how things could playout for Cal.

Cal Sports Reports’ two members – Jeff Faraudo and Jake Curtis – each give you a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario for the Bears’ six-game season, which is now scheduled to begin Nov. 14 at Arizona State.

(Chase Garbers comments on the high expectations in the video above.)

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Jeff’s best-case scenario

In the year 2020, where the world we know has been flipped upside down by the pandemic, could the Bears actually win the Pac-12 North?

My initial reaction was their path to that goal became potentially more difficult with the cancellation of the opener vs. Washington. The problem as of this writing is we still don’t know whether next Saturday’s game at Arizona State will happen.

The Pac-12 division titles will be decided by winning percentage, and a tie would be settled by head-to-head result, followed by various other criteria. A team that has played two games fewer than another, however, is not factored into that discussion.

But here’s how the UW cancellation may not cause such harm: Even if the Bears have a second game canceled, there is no way they can go 4-0 without beating Oregon. In that case, the Ducks couldn’t be 6-0.

So, even 4-0 gets the job done . . . unless UW goes 5-0 and wins a complicated tiebreaker. Please, anything but electoral votes!

For the purposes of my best-case vision, I’m projecting the Bears will be cleared to play in Tempe next Saturday. And while we’re laying out the best possible scenario for the Bears, they could face an ASU team scuffling after a loss to USC during brunch on Saturday at the L.A. Coliseum.

Can the Bears win five in a row and claim the North?

It’s a reach . . . but perhaps not out of reach. Cal has the North’s most stable and experienced starting lineup, including all 11 returning starters on offense.

Oregon likely has the best overall talent level in the division but must replace its all-conference quarterback and its entire offensive line.

This rosy scenario comes to a halt in the Pac-12 title game. South favorite USC beat the Bears 41-17 last season and has prevailed 15 of the past 16 meetings. The Trojans would beat Cal in a showdown for the Pac-12 championship.

**Cal linebacker Kuony Deng gives an assessment of the members of Cal's defense:

Jeff’s worst-case scenario

Never ask what else could go wrong. Not after Wednesday, when the Bears announced a player had tested positive for COVID-19. And not after Friday, when the UW game was canceled.

Of course more could go wrong.

The pieces that seemed so much in order for the Bears to engineer a scrapbook season might just as easily fall like dominoes.

Even assuming COVID doesn’t further derail the Bears, injuries to quarterback Chase Garbers or running back Christopher Brown Jr. could stall the improvement we expect to see on offense.

Likewise, the Bears need their offensive line to be better and their D-line to overcome depth questions — and perhaps COVID, if that’s the unit that has been quarantined. They need Kuony Deng and Cam Bynum to excel.

Maybe all that happens, but it still doesn’t account for how seasons at Oregon and Washington might unfold. If the talent the Ducks and Huskies have acquired in recent years allows them to fill holes, they may simply be the better teams.

If the harm 2020 has inflicted seeps more substantially into Strawberry Canyon, the Bears’ big plans could be reduced to a disappointing 3-3 season.

That is, if the games are even played.

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Jake’s Best-Case Scenario

First of all, Cal would need the play the five remaining games before the Pac-12 championship participants are determined. That assumes next week’s game at Arizona Staet is played.

Secondly, quarterback Chase Garbers, running back Christopher Brown Jr. and defensive linemen Brett Johnson and Zeandae Johnson all stay healthy throughout the season.

Garbers takes another step toward NFL-caliber play, and he and the rest of the offense prosper in Bill Musgrave’s NFL-style offense. The secondary works well together, and Kuony Deng becomes a monster at the inside linebacker spot.

Although there are no fans, being at home helps the Bears get past Oregon, which is not as good as expected after its significant losses on offense.

Preseason expectations (Cal is picked to finish second in the Pac-12 North) give Cal the confidence to plow through the rest of the season.

Cal mights get by Arizona State, but a loss to the Sun Devils does not prevent Cal from winning the Pac-12 North and facing USC in the title game. A good game plan helps the Bears top the Trojans in the title game, earning Cal a berth in a New Year’s Six bowl, and consideration for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Final record: 7-0, including a bowl victory

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Jake’s Worst-Case Scenario

The absolute worst-case scenario is that Cal does not play a single game in 2020 because of the COVID-19 virus. And that is not out of the question.

The next-worst-case scenario is to have one or two more games canceled, which would give Cal three or four games to claim a Pac-12 North title. That would be impossible with three games, and highly unlikely with four. A final 1-4 or 1-3 record would be possible, especially with the limited practice opportunities.

If we assume Cal does not have another cancellation and plays five games before the conference championship weekend, other things could go wrong.

Such as:

Chase Garbers gets hurt and misses some playing time, and Devon Modster cannot generate enough offense. Because of the limited preparation time, Bill Musgrave’s offense never gets into a rhythm and the Bears struggle to score points, just as they have the past two years when they finished last in the Pac-12 in scoring.

Either defensive end Zeandae Johnson or defensive end Brett Johnson gets hurt and the Bears cannot hold up on the defensive line. Evan Tattersall is not as productive as past Cal inside linebackers have been, and the secondary gives up too many big plays because of the loss of safeties Ashtyn Davis and Jaylinn Hawkins to the NFL.

Home field does the Bears no good with no fans to provide support and Cal loses to Oregon.

The limited practice time because of the positive COVID-19 test hurts the team's execution, and the cancellation of a game affects team morale adversely.

The burden of high expectations proves to be too much for a Cal team that is not used to that kind of pressure, and the players’ confidence wanes as the season wears on.

Final record: 2-4, no bowl

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Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

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