Cal Football: Bears Hoping to Shift Run Game into High Gear Again at Colorado
The Colorado defense may be just what Cal needs to jump-start its ground game.
If the performance of the Buffaloes’ first five opponents is any indication, the Bears should rush for 221 yards on Saturday at Folsom Field in Boulder, Colorado.
What?
Well, that’s how the speculative math works out, anyway. Bear with me.
CU — with a new interim head coach, offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator after the dismissal of head coach Karl Dorrell a week ago, but with the same players — will try to alter an equation that has led to an 0-5 start.
Among the Buffs’ issues, and there are many, is a run defense that ranks as by far the worst among all 131 teams in FBS.
Colorado is surrendering 294.2 yards per game on the ground, nearly 41 yards per game more than the next-worst offender, Charlotte.
Keep in mind that Arizona, which has the nation’s 127th-rated rushing defense, gave up 354 rushing yards to Cal — 274 of them by freshman Jaydn Ott.
Two weeks ago against Washington State — the Bears’ most recent game prior to a bye — Cal managed just 32 net yards (including four sacks for 32 yards) in a 28-9 defeat.
“(Three) weeks ago it was exceptional. Against Washington State it wasn’t very good,” Cal coach Justin Wilcox said, when asked about the state of the run game. “We’ve got to find some consistency in there. You’ve got to do it week to week. We don’t want to be a team that just does it once in a while.”
Offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave, in the video at the top of this story, said the self-scouting and tweaking of things in practice never ends. "We’re counting on our best offensive days to be ahead of us this season,” he said.
Here’s what Colorado has allowed on the ground in its first five games, and how that compares what what its opponents averaged in their other outings this season:
— CU opened with a 38-13 loss to TCU, which rushed for 275 yards. The Horned Frogs are averaging 230.2 rushing yards per game. But in their five games other than CU, they’re producing 219.0 yards per game on the ground. Against Colorado, they were plus-56 yards over that average.
— In Week 2, Colorado lost 41-10 to Air Force, the nation’s top rushing team at 352.2 yards per game. They had 435 vs. CU, compared to 335.6 vs. their other opponents. So, they were plus-99 rushing yards vs. CU.
— Colorado 49-7 to Minnesota on its next game, allowing the Golden Gophers to 334 yards. Against everyone else, they average 222.0. Net difference: plus-112 yards.
— CU opened Pac-12 play with a 45-17 loss to unbeaten UCLA in which the Bruins ran for 249 yards. In their other games, they’ve averaged 204.0. Net difference: plus-45 yards.
— The Buffs lost their fifth straight two weeks ago with a 43-20 defeat to Arizona, which did most of its damage through the air. But the Wildcats still rushed for 178 yards, compared to 122.2 in their other games. Net difference: plus-56 yards.
Add ‘em all up and CU’s first five foes totaled 368 rushing yards above what they have averaged in their other games. Divide that by five and it’s an average of plus-74 rushing yards per team when the opponent is Colorado.
Cal ranks 79th nationally in rushing offense, averaging 147.4 yards. Boost that by 74 yards, and you’ve got 221.
We’ll see Saturday how close Cal comes to that.
We’re pretty sure about one thing: If the Bears hit that number they will win.
Cover photo of Cal running back Jaydn Ott by Darren Yamashita, USA Today
Follow Jeff Faraudo of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jefffaraudo
