Cal's Justin Wilcox on Transfer Explosion: 'Part of the New Era of College Football'

Bears have been bit players in adding transfers, but USC has virtually remade its offense with players from other FBS schools

The ridiculous number of players planning to transfer this season and the effect it has had on programs has changed college football, and Cal football coach Justin Wilcox knows he and other college coaches have to adjust.

"We're all going to learn as we go," he said Wednesday. "It's part of the new way of college football. We're keeping our knees bent and going to adjust with it, and we're going to make it a net positive for us."

Cal has been only a bit player in the transfer avalanche this time around, but several prominent football schools, most conspicuously USC, have essentially remade their team in a matter of weeks through transfers.

Presumably because of the new rule that allows players to transfer once without having to sit out a year as well as the effect of the 2020 season, which did not count against a player's college eligibility, the transfer market has exploded this year.

More than 3,400 Division I, II and III football players entered the transfer portal over the last three months, according to Brian Spilbeler of Tracking Football via a story by SI's Ross Dellenger.

Nearly 2,000 FBS scholarship and walk-on players have entered the transfer portal as of Jan. 29, according to Rivals.

Average number of players (ship and walk-on) to enter portal since 8/1 by level

*FBS 1,925 players/130 schools = 14.8 per school
*FCS 1,381 players/129 schools = 10.7 per school
*DII 1,411 players/166 schools = 8.5 per school
*DIII 359 players/241 schools = 1.5 per school

— NCAA Transfer Portal (@RivalsPortal) January 29, 2022

But what is more significant is that, as of January 24, according to Rivals, only a little more than half of the more than 1,400 scholarship FBS players who entered the transfer portal since August have announced that they have found a new team to join.

FBS portal info 2/3
*1,408 scholarship players have entered since 8/1
*55 players withdrew
*1,353 players remained
*764 players have found a new home, which is 56.5%
*589 players remain in portal
@rivalsmike

— NCAA Transfer Portal (@RivalsPortal) February 3, 2022

So is this year's mass exodus going to be typical in the years going forward?

"Is this typical? We don't have enough data or history yet because it's early," Wilcox said. 

Wilcox thinks it might be a good idea to let players know how many scholarship are available across the country, because now more players are entering the transfer portal than can be absorbed by FBS teams.

While a number of high-profile schools have brought in 10 or more transfers and have lost as many through the transfer portal, Wilcox expects Cal to be limited in its approach to transfers.  Cal lost eight players through the transfer portal (nine if you count Jake Tonges, who subsequently declared for the NFL draft), and the Bears brought in just three so far -- quarterback Jack Plummer (from Purdue), linebacker Jackson Sirmon (Washington) and defensive end Xavier Carlton (Utah).

"We feel strongly about our positioning in it," Wilcox said of the transfer portal. "We're not going to be an outfit that's going to take 25 transfers every year, but we're certainly going to supplement our roster with transfers and guys that we feel fit our program and our team, and we've done that."

Some schools are taking a more aggressive approach. LSU and Mississippi are two Southeastern Conference teams that have added more than 10 transfers to alter the makeup of their rosters, but no team has transformed itself more than USC of the Pac-12.

USC hired former Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley, and that change no doubt is part of the reason the Trojans have players coming and going. Fourteeen USC players entered the transfer portal the past few months, including both quarterbacks who started games in 2021 (Kedon Slovis, Jaxson Dart), but the Trojans brought in 13 transfers, including prospective starters at all offensive skill positions.

They brought in a proven quarterback (Caleb Williams), two starting running backs (Travis Dye, Austin Jones), and three potential starting wide receivers (Mario Williams, Brenden Rice, Terrell Bynum). Plus they added some quality cornerbacks and linebackers.  There are still questions about the Trojans' offensive and defensive lines, but the skill positions look top notch, thanks to the transfer portal.

Transfers have become so important that sites are beginning to rank schools' transfer hauls, much like they rank recruiting classes. The 247 Sports site did just that, ranking USC's transfer group No. 1.

The transfer madness is a relatively new phenomena that is becoming a bigger issue each year, creating a virtual free-agent market.

Wilcox is one of the coaches who believe the NCAA could alleviate some of the craziness by providing guidelines in terms of a limited, specific period in which players could transfer.

"The timelines, it would probably make things cleaner for roster management," Wilcox said. "I think that would be that would be something that would be helpful, to put some guidelines around that on the dates, so you know when those things are going to come up so you can plan and manage your roster a bit."

Coaches, of course, would love to see a limited transfer period to make things easier for them in terms of deciding how many high school players they can recruit and how many transfers they can accommodate based on their available scholarships.  But coaches always push back when a new trend or rule affects the game. In general, coaches dislike change, because they are forced to alter their approach.

Specifying when a player could enter the transfer portal might not change things anyway in this era of social media. Players could still announce anytime on Twitter or Instagram or any other medium that they plan to transfer.  Presumably they could even contact officials at other schools to see if that school might be interested in having them transfer in.  What the officials at the schools they contact could say in response while staying within the rules would be another issue.

For now, all we can say is that the transfer era of college football is here to stay, perhaps not as prevalent as it is this year, but an important factor in building a roster every year.

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Cover photo of Justin Wilcox by Kelvin Kuo, USA TODAY Sports

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Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

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