Will 2022 be Jared Goff's Last Season as a Starting QB?

Future of ex-Cal quarterback depends on his 2022 performance and 2023 NFL draft

Will 2022 be the final season in which former Cal star Jared Goff is a starting quarterback in the NFL? It’s possible, especially if you consider the early assessments of next year’s draft.

The quarterback position was weak in this year’s draft, so the Lions opted to focus on defense and – presumably – let Goff be their starting quarterback again in 2022. No quarterback was selected in the first 19 picks of the 2022 draft and Kenny Pickett was the only signal-caller picked in the first two rounds. In other words, there was no quarterback that looked like a game-changer coming out of the gate.

Things will be different in the 2023 draft. First of all, reports indicate that Goff’s contract will make it easier for the Lions to move on from Goff after the 2022 season than it would have before the upcoming season.

More important, though, is the expected presence of franchise quarterbacks in the 2023 draft. On Thursday, ESPN’s Todd McShay posted a 2023 mock draft, and his top two projected picks are quarterbacks – Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young. Beyond that, five of the top nine picks in the first round of his 2023 mock draft are used to take quarterbacks. Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson is projected to be taken with the sixth pick, Kentucky quarterback Will Levis goes with the eighth selection, and Miami’s Tyler Van Dyke is taken with the ninth pick.

Lions general manager Brad Holmes has said that the team would always be on the lookout for an available player who could be a game-changer. Here’s what Holmes told The Athletic about how the Lions would use the No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 draft.

“I’ve been saying all along that we’re looking for a game-changer at that pick, and really any pick. I’ve said ‘all positions’ — if that position is a quarterback, then it’s a quarterback,” Holmes said, via Chris Burke of TheAthletic.com.

Brad Holmes, on the possibility of a QB at 2: "I’ve been saying all along that we’re looking for a game-changer at that pick, and really any pick. I’ve said 'all positions' -- if that position is a quarterback, then it’s a quarterback."

— Chris Burke (@ChrisBurkeNFL) April 21, 2022

That game-changer was not available at the quarterback position in 2022, so the Lions took Aidan Hutchinson with the No. 2 overall pick and moved up to take wide receiver Jameson Williams with the No. 12 overall pick.

Next year, a game-changing quarterback is expected to be available for the Lions if they have one of the top five or six picks as many expect.

McShay projects that the Lions will have the No. 2 overall pick again and will take 2021 Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young. McShay explains it this way:

Detroit wisely focused on the rest of its roster last week, but it will likely have to find its franchise quarterback in 2023 and has a prime chance to do so at No. 2 with Young still on the board. A former five-star recruit, Young is only 6-foot but has solid accuracy and plenty of mobility in the pocket. And he clearly has chemistry with receiver Jameson Williams, one of the Lions' first-round picks this year, considering nearly a third of Young's 4,872 passing yards in 2021 went Williams' way. Jared Goff’s dead money dips to just $10 million next offseason, making the Lions' QB easier to move on from.

Two problems with this projection for 2023:

1. If Goff plays as well in 2022 as he did in his final six games of 2021 (11 TD passes, two interceptions, 3-2-1 record) the Lions probably won’t finish low enough in the standings to draft a franchise quarterback. Furthermore, they might then believe that Goff, who is still just 27 years old, should be their long-term quarterback. With the improvements made in this year’s draft and in free agency, Goff will be in a better position to succeed.

2. Predicting a draft a year in advance is risky business. A year ago at this time, the CBS Sports mock draft had the Lions taking North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell with the No. 2 overall pick, and McShay predicted Detroit would select USC’s Kedon Slovis with that No. 2 selection. Howell was not drafted until the fifth round, and Slovis did not finish the 2021 season as the Trojans starter and opted to transfer to Pitt.

So, yes, there is a possibility that this could be Goff’s final season as a starter – if he and the team falter again in 2022 and if there is a franchise quarterback available in the draft or through a trade.

Those are sizable ifs.

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Cover photo of Jared Goff by Kirthmon F Dozier, USA TODAY Sports

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Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

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