Will Fernando Mendoza or Chandler Rogers Be Cal's Starting QB in 2024?

Redshirt freshman Mendoza threw five interceptions over the final two games, but does he have more potential than the North Texas transfer?

Will Cal’s first season in the Atlantic Coast Conference start with a quarterback controversy? It might

When the 2023 regular-season ended, it appeared the Golden Bears had found their long-term answer at the position in redshirt freshman Fernando Mendoza. The only concern was whether Mendoza, who is from Miami, might transfer, but when that possibility was dashed, things seemed set.

He was the perfect story: a high school player who had committed to Yale but subsequently got his first and only FBS-school offer from Cal, came to Berkeley, sat out his first year, began his second season as a third-string quarterback, sat for the first five game before getting his first college start in the sixth game and elevated the Bears’ offense by adding excitement, optimism and production to the attack.

What could be better? Mendoza helped Cal win its final three games to give the Bears their first bowl berth in four years. And he seemed to gain confidence and efficiency with each start, the other players believed in him, and he figured to get better as a sophomore and junior.

Then, on December 11, North Texas graduate transfer quarterback Chandler Rogers announced he had committed to Cal for the 2024 season.

Suddenly, there was a collective “Hmmm.”

Why did Cal feel it needed to go out and get a quarterback who had proved he was capable of starting for Power Five conference team? His numbers in 2023 were better than Mendoza’s, albeit in a lesser conference. And the fact Mike Bloesch, who was North Texas offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2022, had been elevated to the Bears’ offensive coordinator position nine days before Rogers’ commitment suggests Bloesch was a factor in getting Rogers.

Then came the Independence Bowl. Mendoza was outstanding at the start, throwing a 25-yard touchdown pass on Cal’s first offensive play, completing his first seven passes and leading the Bears to a 14-7 lead in the first quarter with strong showings on Cal’s first three offensive possessions.

Suddenly it stopped. Cal did not score a point in any of its 11 remaining possessions, and Mendoza threw three second-half interceptions. Granted, the lack of a running game was the biggest impediment for Cal in that game, but Texas Tech does not have a stonewall defense, having yielded 57 points to Texas in its final regular season game.

Cal lost 34-14.

Mendoza was disappointed in his performance after the game.

“Putting it plain and simple – didn’t perform at the level I’m capable of,” he said. “Not a great performance unfortunately . . . my play wasn’t up to par.”

Mendoza threw five interceptions in Cal’s final two games, giving him 14 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions and a 133.58 passer rating for the season. That pales in comparison to what Rogers did at North Texas in 2023: 24 TD passes, 5 interceptions and a 149.71 passer rating.

Of course, Mendoza’s statistics came against the likes of Oregon State, USC, Utah and Oregon, while Rogers was doing his work against American Athletic Conference foes.

Rogers was not even the Mean Green’s starting quarterback when North Texas lost to Cal in the season opener. Rogers entered that game later and was just 3-for-7 for 10 yards and an interception, hardly the kind of performance that would impress Cal coaches.

However, he became the starter in the third game, and North Texas went 5-5 in the games in which he started. Against Mean Green’s three best conference opponents – Tulane, Memphis and SMU – Rogers threw nine touchdown passes with one interception while averaging 331.3 passing yards, although North Texas lost all three.

Bloesch left North Texas before Rogers played a game for the Mean Green, but Bloesch presumably knew a lot about Rogers, who had transferred from Louisiana-Monroe following the 2022 season. And a graduate transfer who has been a starter at two FBS schools – North Texas and Louisiana-Monroe – is unlikely to transfer to a school where he does not expect to be a starter in his final season of eligibility.

Rogers has been around. He started his college career at Southern Mississippi, spent time at Blinn (Community) College, played two years at Louisiana-Monroe and one year at North Texas and is now headed to Berkeley as the Bears begin play in the ACC.

He is well traveled and experienced, providing Cal with a polished, finished product.  But does Mendoza have a higher ceiling, making him a better long-term choice based on his early production, potential and charisma despite relatively limited playing time? 

It is assumed Cal will not name either as its starter at the start of preseason practice, preferring to conduct a quarterback competition to determine its starter for its 2024 opener against UC Davis. But the pecking order should be defined by the time Cal hosts Oregon State in a nonconference game on September 28, before Cal begins ACC play.

Cover photo of Fernando Mendoza by Paul Karge, The Times, USA TODAY NETWORK

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