Pac-12 Bowl Projections: Oregon Gets More Support Than Washington for CFP Berth
The race for the four spots in the College Football Playoff seems more uncertain than ever, at a time in the season when things typically are becoming clear.
Only one team, Georgia, is predicted to be in the CFP by all 12 of the experts we site this week.
The support between the two Pac-12 contenders -- Washington and Oregon -- is split, with Oregon gaining a sizable edge. Seven of the 13 sites predict that Oregon (8-1) will be in a CFP national semifinal game, and two sites project that Washington (9-0) will earn a berth in the College Football Playoff. Five of the sites don't expect a Pac-12 team to make it to the four-team national championship playoff.
Perhaps most surprising is the projection by College Football Network, which predicts that both Oregon and Washington will get berths in CFP semifinal games.
Five other teams -- Michigan, Florida State, Texas, Ohio State and Alabama -- are predicted to earn a CFP berth by at least one of the 12 college football experts.
Cal, Stanford and Arizona State again are predicted to be left without a bowl berth by any of our experts, but for the first time Colorado is not projected to earn a bowl berth at any of the sites we cite.
Here are the 12 bowl projections, with the Pac-12 bowl affiliations listed at the end of this article.
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Penn State
Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – Oregon State vs. Maryland
Holiday Bowl – Arizona vs. Duke
Sun Bowl – USC vs. Clemson
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. UCF
Comment:
Georgia is still the obvious choice from the SEC, and the same goes for Florida State from the ACC. From the Pac-12, undefeated Washington is in the same boat, but one-loss Oregon would nearly be assured of a playoff spot if it wins out and avenges its loss to UW in the conference title game.
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane
Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Wisconsin
Holiday Bowl – Arizona vs. Duke
Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl – Washinton State vs. Houston
Comment:
I made one notable change to my top four, replacing Washington with Oregon, even though the Huskies defeated the Ducks 36-33 at home Oct. 14. I think Oregon has looked like the more complete team since then, and it might be more equipped to handle the stretch run because of its defense. Two-time defending national champion Georgia remains No. 1, followed by Michigan, Oregon and Florida State.
Washington has looked only so-so the past three games with closer-than-expected victories over Arizona State (15-7) and Stanford (42-33) and a track meet win at USC (52-42). The Huskies surrendered 515 yards to the Trojans. I don't know if Washington is good enough on defense to remain unbeaten in its three-game finish to the regular season: home against No. 18 Utah, at No. 16 Oregon State and home against rival Washington State in the Apple Cup. Oregon's regular-season finish is a little more manageable: home against USC, at Arizona State and home against rival Oregon State.
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Oregon vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl -- Washington vs. Penn State
Alamo Bowl -- Utah vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl -- USC vs. Wisconsin
Holiday Bowl -- UCLA vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl -- Oregon State vs. Duke
LA Bowl -- Arizona vs. Fresno State
Independence Bowl -- Washington State vs. BYU
(USA Today mistakenly has Washington State in two bowls. We made a unilateral decision to put the Cougars in the Independence Bowl, not the Gasparilla Bowl)
Comment:
The current outlook remains the same in this week's bowl projections with Georgia, Michigan, Florida State and Oregon predicted to reach the playoff. But there's a lot for the contenders to face, starting this week. The Bulldogs host No. 10 Mississippi. The Wolverines travel to No. 9 Penn State. The Seminoles get a visit from rival Miami (Fla.). And the Ducks must face Southern California.
Could one of the group lose this weekend? It's certainly possible in the wild world of college football.
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San Jose Mercury News (Jon Wilner)
(Pac-12 representative only)
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Oregon
Fiesta Bowl -- Washington
Alamo Bowl -- Utah
Las Vegas Bowl -- Arizona
Holiday Bowl -- UCLA
Sun Bowl -- Oregon State
LA Bowl -- UCLA
Comment:
Comment: Oregon’s place atop the Hotlines' weekly power ratings has left many perplexed, but the calculation is really quite simple: In our opinion, and having watched 90 percent of the snaps for both teams this season, the Ducks are better than UW and will beat the Huskies on a neutral field in the Pac-12 championship game. And this year, a one-loss Pac-12 champ is absolutely getting into the CFP.
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane
Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – Arizona vs. Kansas
Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Illinois
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl – Utah vs. Miami-Fla.
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Air Force
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The Athletic (Scott Dotchterman)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Oregon vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl -- Washington vs. Texas
Alamo Bowl -- USC vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl -- Utah vs. Iowa
Holiday Bowl -- Oregon State vs. Boston College
Sun Bowl -- Arizona vs. Miami-Fla.
LA Bowl -- UCLA vs. Fresno State
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane
Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – USC vs. Oklahoma
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Nebraska
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Miami-Fla.
Sun Bowl – Arizona vs. Boston College
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. Iowa State
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Action Network (Brett McMurphy)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – Arizona vs. Nebraska
Holiday Bowl – USC vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Miami-Fla.
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. Iowa State
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Oregon vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl -- Washington Texas
Alamo Bowl -- Utah vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl -- Arizona vs. Illinois
Holiday Bowl -- USC vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl -- Oregon State vs. Boston College
LA Bowl -- UCLA vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl -- Washington State vs. Iowa State
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The Sporting News (Bill Bender)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane
Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Texas
Alamo Bowl – Oregon State vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Nebraska
Holiday Bowl – Utah vs. Miami-Fla.
Sun Bowl – UCLA vs. North Carolina State
LA Bowl – Arizona vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. Houston
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Ohio State vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Texas vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane
Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – USC vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – Arizona vs. Minnesota
Holiday Bowl – Utah vs. Duke
Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Virginia Tech
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Boise State
Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. BYU
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Texas
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Florida State vs. Alabama
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Fresno State
Peach Bowl – Oregon vs. Georgia
Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Wisconsin
Holiday Bowl – UCLA vs. North Carolina State
Sun Bowl – Arizona vs. Clemson
LA Bowl – Oregon State vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. BYU
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College Football Network (Oliver Hodgkinson)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Oregon vs. Georgia
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan
Alamo Bowl -- Oregon State vs. Kansas
Las Vegas Bowl -- USC vs. Wisconsin
Holiday Bowl -- Utah vs. North Carolina
Sun Bowl -- Arizona vs. Duke
LA Bowl -- UCLA vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl -- Washington State vs. BYU
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Pac-12 bowl affiliations:
College Football Playoff Semifinal – Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Calif., January 1) or Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, January 1): If Selected
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1, Glendale, Ariz.), Orange Bowl (Dec. 30, Miami Gardens, Fla.), Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29, Arlington, Texas) or Peach Bowl (Dec. 30, Atlanta): If Selected.
Alamo Bowl (December 28, San Antonio): vs. Big 12
Las Vegas Bowl (December 23): vs. SEC
Holiday Bowl (December 27, San Diego): vs. ACC
Sun Bowl (December 29, El Paso, Texas): vs. ACC
LA Bowl (December 16): vs. Mountain West
Independence Bowl (December 16, Shreveport, La.): vs. Big 12
A Pac-12 team could also be selected for one of three ESPN-operated bowl games: Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 23, Fort Worth, Texas), First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26, Dallas) and Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 22, Tampa, Fla.)
A Pac-12 team could also be selected for the Birmingham Bowl, which has the option to take teams from two of eight conferences tied to this bowl. It will be held Dec. 23 in Birmingham, Ala.
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Cover photo of Oregon celebration by Ben Lonergan, The Register-Guard, USA TODAY NETWORK
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