Pac-12 Bowl Projections: Washington Hangs Onto CFB Spot

Huskies predicted to land a College Football Playoff semifinal berth by seven of the 11 experts we cite. Will Colorado be left out of all bowls?

Washington's mediocre performance in Saturday's 15-7 victory over Arizona State made the Huskies' projected place in the College Football Playoff national semifinals a little less certain.

A few sites that predicted Washington to be in the national semifinals last week dropped them out this week.  Nonetheless, seven of the 11 experts we cite this week still project the Huskies to land in the College Football Playoff.

Things will become clearer next week, when the first CFP rankings come out on Tuesday, October 31. (Yes, on Halloween.)

What is just as interesting is the bowl status of USC and Colorado.

Two of the 11 experts demoted USC all the way to the Sun Bowl, which is not exactly what the Trojans had in mind when the season began.

Regarding Colorado and Coach Prime, only three of the 11 sites project the Buffaloes to land in any bowl.  Ending up without a postseason berth would be a major disappointment for Colorado after it began the season 3-0 and was ranked as high at 18th.

Cal is one of three Pac-12 teams (along with Stanford and Arizona State) not projected to earn a bowl berth by any of the 11 experts.

Here are the Pac-12 and CFP projections by 11 college football experts (with Pac-12 bowl affiliations listed at the end of this report):

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ESPN (Kyle Bonagura)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Florida State vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Penn State

Alamo Bowl – Oregon State vs. Kansas State

Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Rutgers

Holiday Bowl – UCLA vs. Duke

Sun Bowl – USC vs. Syracuse

LA Bowl – Arizona vs. Wyoming

Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. TCU

Bonagura CFP comment:

The four teams stay the same this week -- Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State -- but, not that it really matters, I flipped Michigan and Washington, with the Wolverines now projected as the No. 2 team and the theoretical favorite to reach the national championship game from the Rose Bowl semifinal. Michigan has been dominant for several weeks and not only has it looked better than the Huskies recently, but there is a strong case the Wolverines should be ranked No. 1.

On the other hand, Washington played its worst game of the season against Arizona State, narrowly defeating a team that has yet to beat an FBS opponent this year. While the Huskies survived, it will be worth monitoring if ASU found something other teams can latch onto or if it was just one of those nights.

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ESPN (Mark Schlabach)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Florida State vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Aur Force

Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Kansas State

Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Wisconsin

Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Miami-Fla.

Sun Bowl – Colorado vs. North Carolina State

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Wyoming

Independence Bowl – Arizona vs. TCU

New Mexico Bowl – Washington State vs. UNLV

Schlabach CFP comment:

My top four once again remains unchanged, even after Washington survived a close call (15-7 at home against Arizona State) on Saturday night. A letdown from the Huskies probably should have been expected after their showdown with Oregon a week earlier, but they didn't have to make it that close. Washington needed Mishael Powell's 89-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to finally go in front. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. threw two picks and fumbled twice, losing one. The Huskies still play USC (road), Utah (home), Oregon State (road) and Washington State (home), so they'll have to clean up things down the stretch.

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The Sporting News (Bill Bender)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State

Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Air Force

Alamo Bowl – Oregon State vs. Oklahoma State

Las Vegas Bowl – UCLA vs. Iowa

Holiday Bowl – Utah vs. Notre Dame

Sun Bowl – USC vs. North Carolina

LA Bowl – Arizona vs. Fresno State

Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. Baylor

Bender CFP comment:

The College Football Playoff can make teams play a little tighter.

We saw that with a few unbeaten teams in Week 8. Washington needed a pick-six to take a fourth-quarter lead and hold off Arizona State 15-7. Oklahoma prevented UCF from converting a game-tying two-point conversion in a 31-29 Big 12 thriller.

The Huskies and Sooners survived, however, and it a toss up between those two teams for the final CFP spot in our Week 9 Bowl Projections. Which team has a better CFP path? Oklahoma has the easier path, but Washington has the better resume for now. Florida State is on pace for an unbeaten season and would get the No. 4 seed in that scenario.

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CBS Sports (Jerry Palm)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Air Force

Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Oklahoma

Alamo Bowl – USC vs. Oklahoma State

Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Iowa

Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Syracuse

Sun Bowl – Washington State vs. Miami-Fla.

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Wyoming

Independence Bowl – Arizona vs. UCF

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Action Network (Brett McMurphy)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas

Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Air Force

Cotton Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama

Alamo Bowl – USC vs. Oklahoma State

Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Iowa

Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson

Sun Bowl – Arizona vs. Virginia Tech

LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Wyoming

Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. West Virginia

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Athlon Sports (Steven Lassan)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane

Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Oklahoma

Alamo Bowl – USC vs. Oklahoma State

Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Iowa

Holiday Bowl – UCLA vs. Duke

Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson

LA Bowl – Arizona vs. Air Force

Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. UCF

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247 Sports (Brad Crawford)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State

Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Air Force

Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Kansas State

Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Iowa

Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Miami-Fla.

Sun Bowl – Arizona vs. North Carolina State

LA Bowl – Colorado vs. Wyoming

Independence Bowl – UCLA vs. BYU

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College Football News

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Florida State vs. Michigan

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane

Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Texas

Alamo Bowl – UCLA vs. Kansas State

Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Nebraska

Holiday Bowl – Utah vs. Louisville

Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson

LA Bowl – Arizona vs. Air Force

Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. Baylor

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USA Today (Erick Smith)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Michigan vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Washington vs. Georgia

Fiesta Bowl -- Oregon vs. Texas

Alamo Bowl -- Utah vs. Kansas

Las Vegas Bowl -- USC vs. Iowa

Holiday Bowl -- UCLA vs. Notre Dame

Sun Bowl -- Oregon State vs. Duke

LA Bowl -- Washington State vs. Air Force

Independence Bowl -- Colorado vs. Iowa State

First Responder -- Arizona vs. TCU

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San Jose Mercury-News (Jon Wilner)

(Pac-12 representatives only)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Washington

Fiesta Bowl -- Oregon

Alamo Bowl -- Oregon State

Las Vegas Bowl -- Utah

Holiday Bowl -- USC

Sun Bowl -- Arizona

LA Bowl -- UCLA

At-large bowl -- Washington State

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College Football Network (Oliver Hodgkinson)

Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Florida State

Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Georgia

Peach Bowl – Oregon vs. Texas

Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Oklahoma State

Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Wisconsin

Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Notre Dame

Sun Bowl – UCLA vs. Duke

LA Bowl – Colorado vs. UNLV

Independence Bowl – Arizona vs. TCU

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Pac-12 bowl affiliations:

College Football Playoff Semifinal – Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Calif., January 1) or Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, January 1): If Selected

Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1, Glendale, Ariz.), Orange Bowl (Dec. 30, Miami Gardens, Fla.), Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29, Arlington, Texas) or Peach Bowl (Dec. 30, Atlanta): If Selected.

Alamo Bowl (December 28, San Antonio): vs. Big 12

Las Vegas Bowl (December 23): vs. SEC

Holiday Bowl (December 27, San Diego): vs. ACC

Sun Bowl (December 29, El Paso, Texas): vs. ACC

LA Bowl (December 16): vs. Mountain West

Independence Bowl (December 16, Shreveport, La.): vs. Big 12

A Pac-12 team could also be selected for one of three ESPN-operated bowl games: Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 23, Fort Worth, Texas), First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26, Dallas) and Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 22, Tampa, Fla.)

A Pac-12 team could also be selected for the Birmingham Bowl, which has the option to take teams from two of eight conferences tied to this bowl. It will be held Dec. 23 in Birmingham, Ala.

Cover photo of Washington's Michael Powell by Joe Nicholson, USA TODAY Sports

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