Pac-12 Bowl Projections: Washington Hangs Onto CFB Spot
Washington's mediocre performance in Saturday's 15-7 victory over Arizona State made the Huskies' projected place in the College Football Playoff national semifinals a little less certain.
A few sites that predicted Washington to be in the national semifinals last week dropped them out this week. Nonetheless, seven of the 11 experts we cite this week still project the Huskies to land in the College Football Playoff.
Things will become clearer next week, when the first CFP rankings come out on Tuesday, October 31. (Yes, on Halloween.)
What is just as interesting is the bowl status of USC and Colorado.
Two of the 11 experts demoted USC all the way to the Sun Bowl, which is not exactly what the Trojans had in mind when the season began.
Regarding Colorado and Coach Prime, only three of the 11 sites project the Buffaloes to land in any bowl. Ending up without a postseason berth would be a major disappointment for Colorado after it began the season 3-0 and was ranked as high at 18th.
Cal is one of three Pac-12 teams (along with Stanford and Arizona State) not projected to earn a bowl berth by any of the 11 experts.
Here are the Pac-12 and CFP projections by 11 college football experts (with Pac-12 bowl affiliations listed at the end of this report):
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Florida State vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Penn State
Alamo Bowl – Oregon State vs. Kansas State
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Rutgers
Holiday Bowl – UCLA vs. Duke
Sun Bowl – USC vs. Syracuse
LA Bowl – Arizona vs. Wyoming
Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. TCU
Bonagura CFP comment:
The four teams stay the same this week -- Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State -- but, not that it really matters, I flipped Michigan and Washington, with the Wolverines now projected as the No. 2 team and the theoretical favorite to reach the national championship game from the Rose Bowl semifinal. Michigan has been dominant for several weeks and not only has it looked better than the Huskies recently, but there is a strong case the Wolverines should be ranked No. 1.
On the other hand, Washington played its worst game of the season against Arizona State, narrowly defeating a team that has yet to beat an FBS opponent this year. While the Huskies survived, it will be worth monitoring if ASU found something other teams can latch onto or if it was just one of those nights.
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Florida State vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Aur Force
Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Kansas State
Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Wisconsin
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Miami-Fla.
Sun Bowl – Colorado vs. North Carolina State
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Wyoming
Independence Bowl – Arizona vs. TCU
New Mexico Bowl – Washington State vs. UNLV
Schlabach CFP comment:
My top four once again remains unchanged, even after Washington survived a close call (15-7 at home against Arizona State) on Saturday night. A letdown from the Huskies probably should have been expected after their showdown with Oregon a week earlier, but they didn't have to make it that close. Washington needed Mishael Powell's 89-yard interception return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to finally go in front. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. threw two picks and fumbled twice, losing one. The Huskies still play USC (road), Utah (home), Oregon State (road) and Washington State (home), so they'll have to clean up things down the stretch.
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The Sporting News (Bill Bender)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Air Force
Alamo Bowl – Oregon State vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – UCLA vs. Iowa
Holiday Bowl – Utah vs. Notre Dame
Sun Bowl – USC vs. North Carolina
LA Bowl – Arizona vs. Fresno State
Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. Baylor
Bender CFP comment:
The College Football Playoff can make teams play a little tighter.
We saw that with a few unbeaten teams in Week 8. Washington needed a pick-six to take a fourth-quarter lead and hold off Arizona State 15-7. Oklahoma prevented UCF from converting a game-tying two-point conversion in a 31-29 Big 12 thriller.
The Huskies and Sooners survived, however, and it a toss up between those two teams for the final CFP spot in our Week 9 Bowl Projections. Which team has a better CFP path? Oklahoma has the easier path, but Washington has the better resume for now. Florida State is on pace for an unbeaten season and would get the No. 4 seed in that scenario.
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Air Force
Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Alamo Bowl – USC vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Iowa
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Syracuse
Sun Bowl – Washington State vs. Miami-Fla.
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Wyoming
Independence Bowl – Arizona vs. UCF
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Action Network (Brett McMurphy)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas
Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Air Force
Cotton Bowl – Washington vs. Alabama
Alamo Bowl – USC vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Iowa
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl – Arizona vs. Virginia Tech
LA Bowl – UCLA vs. Wyoming
Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. West Virginia
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Texas
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane
Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Alamo Bowl – USC vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – Utah vs. Iowa
Holiday Bowl – UCLA vs. Duke
Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson
LA Bowl – Arizona vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. UCF
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Florida State
Fiesta Bowl – Oregon vs. Air Force
Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Kansas State
Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Iowa
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Miami-Fla.
Sun Bowl – Arizona vs. North Carolina State
LA Bowl – Colorado vs. Wyoming
Independence Bowl – UCLA vs. BYU
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Florida State vs. Michigan
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Georgia vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl – Washington vs. Tulane
Cotton Bowl – Oregon vs. Texas
Alamo Bowl – UCLA vs. Kansas State
Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Nebraska
Holiday Bowl – Utah vs. Louisville
Sun Bowl – Oregon State vs. Clemson
LA Bowl – Arizona vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl – Washington State vs. Baylor
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Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Michigan vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Washington vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl -- Oregon vs. Texas
Alamo Bowl -- Utah vs. Kansas
Las Vegas Bowl -- USC vs. Iowa
Holiday Bowl -- UCLA vs. Notre Dame
Sun Bowl -- Oregon State vs. Duke
LA Bowl -- Washington State vs. Air Force
Independence Bowl -- Colorado vs. Iowa State
First Responder -- Arizona vs. TCU
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San Jose Mercury-News (Jon Wilner)
(Pac-12 representatives only)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) -- Washington
Fiesta Bowl -- Oregon
Alamo Bowl -- Oregon State
Las Vegas Bowl -- Utah
Holiday Bowl -- USC
Sun Bowl -- Arizona
LA Bowl -- UCLA
At-large bowl -- Washington State
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College Football Network (Oliver Hodgkinson)
Rose Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Washington vs. Florida State
Sugar Bowl (national CFP semifinals) – Michigan vs. Georgia
Peach Bowl – Oregon vs. Texas
Alamo Bowl – Utah vs. Oklahoma State
Las Vegas Bowl – USC vs. Wisconsin
Holiday Bowl – Oregon State vs. Notre Dame
Sun Bowl – UCLA vs. Duke
LA Bowl – Colorado vs. UNLV
Independence Bowl – Arizona vs. TCU
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Pac-12 bowl affiliations:
College Football Playoff Semifinal – Rose Bowl (Pasadena, Calif., January 1) or Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, January 1): If Selected
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1, Glendale, Ariz.), Orange Bowl (Dec. 30, Miami Gardens, Fla.), Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29, Arlington, Texas) or Peach Bowl (Dec. 30, Atlanta): If Selected.
Alamo Bowl (December 28, San Antonio): vs. Big 12
Las Vegas Bowl (December 23): vs. SEC
Holiday Bowl (December 27, San Diego): vs. ACC
Sun Bowl (December 29, El Paso, Texas): vs. ACC
LA Bowl (December 16): vs. Mountain West
Independence Bowl (December 16, Shreveport, La.): vs. Big 12
A Pac-12 team could also be selected for one of three ESPN-operated bowl games: Armed Forces Bowl (Dec. 23, Fort Worth, Texas), First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26, Dallas) and Gasparilla Bowl (Dec. 22, Tampa, Fla.)
A Pac-12 team could also be selected for the Birmingham Bowl, which has the option to take teams from two of eight conferences tied to this bowl. It will be held Dec. 23 in Birmingham, Ala.
Cover photo of Washington's Michael Powell by Joe Nicholson, USA TODAY Sports
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