Pac-12 Football Notes: Is Oregon State a Title Contender?

Beavers favored over Washington. A ball dropped before crossing goal-line nearly doomed Washington and did doom bettors. Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. still 1-2 in Heisman race. Jake Dickert hints at tampering

A ball dropped before the goal-line by a Huskies defender, the Penix-Nix Heisman race and some interesting comments by Washington State head coach Jake Dickert are part of this week's Pac-12 football notes, but we start with the emergence of Oregon State.

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Is Oregon State a title contender?

For the past several weeks we've just been marking time until Washington and Oregon meet in the Pac-12 title game with a berth in the College Football Playoff presumably on the line.

However, while most people were watching Washington squeak by Utah and Oregon ease past USC on Saturday, Oregon State was quietly producing the most impressive performance of the weekend. That performance is why Oregon State is a slight favorite over Washington this coming weekend.

The Beavers' 62-17 victory over an improving Stanford team moved Oregon State into the top 10 of this week's AP poll at No. 10. The Beavers' dominance of that game made AP voters and everybody in the Pac-12 take notice.

Oregon State rolled up 598 yards of offense while its defense recorded 12 tackles for losses and four interceptions. Running back Damien Martinez went over 1,000 yards for the season for Oregon State, which ranks 14th in the country in scoring at 37.9 points per game.

Oregon State has suddenly emerged as a team that could topple the apple cart -- or whatever cliche you want to use.

Saturday's impressive showing came at the Beavers' Reser Stadium, where Oregon State is 5-0, including a one-sided 21-7 victory over Utah.

It is also the site of next Saturday's game against Washington, which has looked vulnerable in recent weeks and had to struggle to get past Utah 35-28 in Seattle on Saturday.

Oregon State is listed as anywhere from a 1-point favorite to a 2.5-point favorite against Washington at betting sites as of Friday. So the Beavers certainly have a shot to win that game, according to the oddsmakers. 

And the odds continue to fluctuate.  Oregon State was a slight underdogs on Sunday, it moved to a 1-point favorite on Monday, the spread increased to 2 and 2.5 points on Tuesday and sat at 2.5 points across the board on Thursday.  On Friday, however, a number of betting sites reduced the spread to 1 point, while others had the Beavers favored by 1.5 points, some listed the spread at 2 points and others still had it at 2.5 points.  On Saturday morning the spread settled at 1 point at some sites and 1.5 points at others. They all still had Oregon State as the favorite.

Oregon State is 5-2 in Pac-12 play, leaving it two games behind Washington (7-0) and one game behind Oregon (6-1).  But if the Beavers get past Washington, the gap narrows heading in Oregon State's game against Oregon the following week. The Beavers would probably need to beat the Ducks too to remain in contention for a Pac-12 championship game berth, but things will become clear after this week's games. (Arizona and Utah are still in the title picture as well, but those two play each other Saturday.)

Meanwhile, Washington would assure itself a spot in the conference title game by beating the Beavers on Saturday.

Why do players drop the ball before crossing the goal-line?

By now you've probably seen the video of Washington linebacker Alphonzo Tuputala dropping the ball about two yards before crossing the goal-line after an interception. Not one yard early, mind you, but two yards.

Two Washington players and one Utah player passed by the ball that was resting at the 1-yard line, oblivious to the situation, before Utah lineman Michael Mokofisi jumped on it for a fumble recovery.

The gaffe in the closing seconds of the third quarter prevented Washington from increasing a five-point lead to 12 points. But more important perhaps is that gamblers who bet on Washington to beat the 9.5-point spread became losers with the Huskies' 35-28 win.

More interesting perhaps is the number of times players have dropped the ball before crossing the goal-line.

You may recall the 2014 play in which Utah's Kaelin Clay dropped the ball before the goal-line. Oregon returned it for a touchdown and it was the turning point in that game

And here is a compilation of moments when a player celebrated too early, sacrificing a sure touchdown.

You have to ask yourself: Why does this happen so often? Can players not see the goal-line?  Do they not know where they are on the field?  Why would they not wait until they are at least five yards into the end zone before releasing the ball?

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Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. still top Heisman favorites

On Sunday most reputable betting site listed Oregon quarterback Bo Nix as the betting favorite to win the Heisman Trophy with Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. second.

The Heisman race is far from over, and it does not start in earnest until this weekend.  

There was a feeling that LSU's Jayden Daniels might climb to the favorite role after passing for three touchdowns and rushing for 234 yards and two more touchdowns in the Tigers' 52-35 victory over Florida.  But he is still behind both Nix and Penix, according to most oddsmakers, although he is closing the gap and is ahead of Penix at a few betting sites.

The rationale for Daniels' lower standing is that LSU has three losses, which is too many for a Heisman candidate.  However, Florida lost three regular-season games in 2007 when Tim Tebow won the Heisman.

And, oh yes, Daniels played his first three seasons at Arizona State before transferring to LSU.

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WSU head coach Jake Dickert hints at tampering

Last week Washington State coach Jake Dickert articulated what most people assume: That teams' NIL resources rule the transfer portal, and that there may be some tampering going on.

"And the facts are that at Washington State we're way behind, not even competitive in some aspects of the NIL," Dickert said last week. "Recruiting, I mean these kids tell you what they are getting. Oregon State probably has us by 10X, Arizona has us by 20X, USC, Washington, Oregon, who even knows, it's another planet."

"In three weeks it's going to be open target season on our players," he said later. "That's what it's going to be and it's already started."

Asked whether he believes some of his players are being contacted already, Dickert said, "I do think that's what people do. . . 

 "I think the tampering piece is real . . . 

"I think we all know what is actually happening out there."

Dickert pointed to an article that included quotes from Cougars defensive back Jaden Hicks, who is second on the team in tackles, has five tackles for loss and an interception.

"They (emissaries for other schools) haven’t come to me directly but they have come to my dad,” he told Cougfan.com in an interview. “So my dad will tell me but he doesn’t tell me anything specific. I’m always wondering why they’re doing that.”

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Justin Wilcox: It's my birthday?

Moments after Cal held off Washington State for a 42-39 win on Saturday, Bears head coach Justin Wilcox was asked whether the win would help him celebrate his birthday the next day, Sunday.

Wilcox paused, a bit perplexed, then said:

"I'm going to be honest with you. Until you said that, I had not even thought of that."

He then shook his head, and was speechless, searching for an explanation.

A cake?

"No, I doubt that," he said. "I don't think anyone's bringing me a cake. And that's fine. I don't want a cake. I just want to grade the game and move on."

So Wilcox turned 48 on Sunday but he was not aware his birthday was the next day. 

You think football coaches are focused?

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Draw your own conclusions on this from the Cal-Washington State game

Here is the play that wiped out WSU's completion to Cooper Mathers. Looks like a Cal coach instructed safety Patrick McMorris to go down with an injury. pic.twitter.com/9vZ2KMFxMp

— Greg Woods (@GregWWoods) November 12, 2023

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Pac-12 Player of the Year Standings

--1. Quarterback Bo Nix, Oregon – His four touchdown passes on Saturday give him 29 TYD passes and just two interceptions, one of which went right through the hands of a Ducks receiver.

--2. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., Washington – His numbers were not great Saturday, but he still leads the nation in passing yards, and his team is unbeaten.

--3 Quarterback Noah Fifita, Arizona – Fifita is fourth nationally in completion percentage (73.7%) and is leading the Wildcats' surge.

--4. Running back Damien Martinez, Oregon State -- His 146 yards against Stanford brings im to 1,024 for the season.  Martinez gives the Beavers their offensive identity.

--5. Running back Bucky Irving, Oregon – That's right, we have demoted Caleb Williams completely out of the top five.

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Top Five Pac-12 Teams

(We rank based on which teams have had the best results, not which teams we believe are the best teams)

--1. Washington (10-0, 7-0 Pac-12) – The Huskies continue to struggle, but they continue to win.

--2. Oregon (9-1, 6-1) – The Ducks were considered the nation's best one-loss team before Saturday, but that so-so showing against USC may put that label in jeopardy.

--3. Arizona (7-3, 5-2) – Who would have guessed a few weeks ago that Arizona would be ahead of USC in the Pac-12 standings?

--4. Oregon State (8-2, 5-2) -- Beavers lost to Arizona, which is wy they are beind the Wildcats.

--5. Utah (7-3, 4-3) – The Utes' road win over USC enables them to own the fifth slot.

Cover photo of Oregon State's Damien Martinez is by Soobum Im, USA TODAY Sports

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