Pac-12 Football Notes: Oregon Favored Over Washington in Title Game

Bo Nix’s Heisman odds. Jonathan Smith’s departure. Top individual conference awards. A comment about each team’s season

The final statement of the Pac-12 as we know it will be made in Friday’s Pac-12 title game, which is just one item in our wrap-up of the conference in 2023.

Oregon Favored Over Washington

Even though Washington is ranked No. 4 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, is one of just five undefeated FBS teams, is the first team to go unbeaten through Pac-12 play (since Utah and Colorado were added in 2011) and beat its Pac-12 title-game opponent during the regular season, the Huskies are underdogs in the conference championship game against Oregon on Friday in Las Vegas.

And the Ducks are not favored by just a point or two; they have been made 9-point favorites by most betting sites.

It’s hard to debate, though. The Huskies’ win over Oregon was in Seattle by just three points, and the Huskies have not won any of their past eight games by more than 10 points. Plus quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has not been as efficient the past two games as he was earlier in the season. 

Meanwhile, Oregon has been blowing out most its opponents since the loss to Washington, and quarterback Bo Nix continues to play at an elite level. Not only are the Ducks second in the nation in scoring offense (45.2 points per game), but they are seventh in the country in scoring defense (15.92 points per game).

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CFP Berth on the Line

It appears the winner of the Pac-12 championship game will get a berth in the four-team College Football Playoff and the loser will go to one of the other four New Year’s Six bowls (Fiesta, Cotton, Orange, Peach).

A Washington win would assure the Huskies of a CFP spot since it would be one of no more than four undefeated Power Five conference teams and own a conference title on top of it.

It seems Oregon would be part of the national championship playoff if it wins. The only arguments would come from Texas, Ohio State and Alabama/Georgia.

The Buckeyes would not be a conference champion, and the selection committee has shown that it values conference titles. Texas, meanwhile, has consistently been placed behind Oregon in the CFP rankings, and a Texas victory over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game would not mean as much as an Oregon win over Washington.

If Alabama upsets Georgia in the SEC title game, that could be a problem for Oregon, because the CFP selection committee might be inclined to invite both SEC teams.  My guess is Oregon, at 12-1, would still make the CFP field as the Pac-12 champ, but it would be dicey.

A lot of other things could affect the CFP matchups, which will be announced Sunday, December 3.

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Will Oregon State Remain Relevant Without Jonathan Smith?

You can’t blame Jonathan Smith for leaving his alma mater to become Michigan State’s head coach. But will the next Beavers coach be able to do what Smith did at Oregon State, where winning consistently was considered impossible. This is the third straight year the Beavers had a winning record in conference play, a feat achieved only once before at Oregon State since 1969.

Mike Riley had four straight winning seasons as Oregon State’s head coach from 2006 through 2009. That success landed Riley a job as Nebraska’s head coach, where he was fired after three seasons, two of which featured a losing record. Will Smith suffer a similar fate away from Corvallis?

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Bo Nix’s Heisman Lead

The Pac-12 title game will determine who wins the Heisman Trophy.

At the moment, Oregon quarterback Bo Nix is the favorite at nearly every betting site, at odds of about 4-to-5. But close behind is LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, whose odds to win the Heisman have been set at about 5-to-4.

Nix has the advantage of playing for a team that is 11-1 and has a chance to win a conference title in the respected Pac-12. Daniels’ team is 9-3 and won’t play in the SEC title game.

However, players on teams with three losses have won the Heisman in the past. Lamar Jackson in 2016 and Tim Tebow in 2007 won the Heisman Trophy despite playing on teams that lost three regular-season games. Jackson and Tebow are similar to Daniels in that all three were dual-threat quarterbacks that piled up a lot of rushing yards as well as touchdown passes.

(Paul Hornung won the 1956 Heisman Trophy while playing for a Notre Dame team that went 1-9, but we won’t address that travesty.)

The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner will be decided in the Pac-12 title game, because the most recent performance has the biggest impact on Heisman voters. A big game by Nix in an Oregon victory should cement the Heisman for the Ducks quarterback. A loss and/or a mediocre showing by Nix will give it to Daniels.

The Heisman Trophy winner will be announced December 9, and most voters wait until after the conference titles games to cast their ballot.

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Top Individual Pac-12 Awards

Offensive player of the year

Bo Nix, Oregon quarterback – A no-brainer. His 78.6 completion percentage would be an FBS record, to go along with 37 touchdown passes and two interceptions for an 11-1 team.

Runnerup: Noah Fifita, Arizona quarterback – Michael Penix Jr. would be the logical pick here, but the way Fifita guided the Wildcats to six straight wins to end the regular season cannot be ignored.

Defensive player of the year

Laiatu Latu, UCLA outside linebacker – His 21.5 tackles for loss lead the nation and his 13 sacks are third. He also intercepted two passes and forced two fumbles.

Runnerup: Jonah Elliss Utah defensive end – 12 sacks in 10 games; his 1.2 sacks per game lead the nation.

Running back of the year

Jaydn Ott, Cal running back – He led the Pac-12 and was fifth in the nation at 114.7 rushing yards per game. His 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown on Saturday in the first and only kickoff return of his college career tipped the scales in his favor.

Runnerup: Bucky Irving, Oregon running back – His 6.4 yards per carry and 48 receptions push him past Damien Martinez and Dillon Johnson.

Wide receiver of the year

Rome Odunze – A virtual dead heat with Oregon’s Troy Franklin, as Franklin and Odunze rank third and fourth in the nation, respectively, in receiving yards per game, and third and sixth, respectively in the country in receiving touchdowns. Odunze gets the edge because he returned a punt for a touchdown and had that game-deciding run against Washington State (see below).

Runnerup: Troy Franklin.

Coach of the year

Jedd Fisch, Arizona – The Wildcats went 0-5 the year before he arrived, to 1-11 in his first season, to 5-7 in his second, to 9-3 this year. Enough said.

Runnerup: Kalen DeBoer – The Huskies were 6-0 in one-score games. Coaching has to figure in that somehow. He went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Huskies’ 29-yard line with 1:11 left in a tie game on Saturday. If the Huskies had failed to convert, Washington State probably would have won and DeBoer would have been criticized endlessly, just as Oregon’s Dan Lanning had been criticized for failed fourth-down attempts. But DeBoer’s play worked, as you can see below. So now he’s a genius.

The trickery! ✨

Huskies convert a huge 4th down! pic.twitter.com/LELYRN2uSv

— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) November 26, 2023

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Comments on Each Pac-12 Team's 2023 Season

Washington (12-0, 9-0 Pac-12) – The Huskies have won eight straight games by margins of 10 points or fewer, including three by three points or fewer. That may seem like vulnerability, but only elite teams win every close game.

Oregon (11-1, 8-1) – The total package, capable of winning a national title.

Arizona (9-3, 7-2) – Picked to finish eighth in the preseason poll, the Wildcats were as good as anyone in the Pac-12 by season’s end. Just wish they had faced Oregon this season.

Oregon State (8-4, 5-4) – Impressive season in Corvallis, but we wonder what will happen to this program without Jonathan Smith.

Utah (8-4, 5-4) – Despite a rash of injuries to key players and winning their final game with a fifth-string, walk-on quarterback (Luke Bottari), the Utes finished with a winning conference mark for the sixth straight season, matching Oregon for the longest such active streak.

USC (7-5, 5-4) – The Trojans, the preseason conference favorite, proved you can’t have success without a defense, even with a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback. USC ranks 120th of 130 FBS teams in both scoring defense and total defense.

Cal (6-6, 4-5) – The Bears became a factor when redshirt freshman Fernando Mendoza became their quarterback in the sixth game. Mendoza had no FBS offers and had committed to Yale before Cal showed late interest after highly touted quarterback Justyn Martin de-committed from Cal in September 2021 and signed with UCLA. Mendoza shows great promise; Martin has yet to throw a pass at UCLA.

UCLA (7-5, 4-5) – I wouldn’t want to be Chip Kelly right now. Even though the Bruins throttled archrival USC, Saturday’s four-turnover, 33-7 loss to Cal will linger in the minds of UCLA faithful.

Arizona State (3-9, 2-7) – Kenny Dillingham’s youthful emotion made for good TV, but quarterback injuries and a postseason ban did not make for much success in his first season.

Stanford (3-9, 2-7) – Winning two conference games with the talent on hand was commendable in the first season under Troy Taylor, whose offensive scheme will be dramatically different when (and if) he gets the players he wants.

Washington State (5-7, 2-7) – Beating Washington would have turned a mediocre season into a good one. Instead the end of the Cougars’ run of seven straight seasons with a bowl berth (excluding the 2020 pandemic season) is what is remembered.

Colorado (4-8, 1-8) – The Buffs and Deion Sanders were the focus of the college football world after they started 3-0 and were nationally ranked. But they ended up in last place, one spot behind where they were picked to end up in the preseason poll.

Cover photo of Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. is by Troy Wayrynen, USA TODAY Sports

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