Pac-12 Notes: Big Day for Pac-12 College Football Playoff Hopes

Events elsewhere help Oregon, USC, UCLA move a step closer to getting one of four berths to chase a national title

November brings heightened awareness of the competition to land one of the four berths in the College Football Playoff, and things went about as well as possible on Saturday for the three Pac-12 teams involved in that chase.

First: All three one-loss Pac-12 teams -- Oregon, USC and UCLA -- won Saturday, although USC and UCLA nearly let sizable leads slip away after contracting cases of fourth-quarter ennui. No team with two losses has ever qualified for the CFP, but only once has a one-loss Power Five conference champion failed to earn a CFP berth (Ohio State in 2016 is the exception).

Second: Georgia beat No. 1 Tennessee. Georgia's win helps the Pac-12 indirectly and Oregon directly.  The Ducks' 49-3 loss to the Bulldogs in the opener continues mar Oregon's resume, but if Georgia continues to plow through the SEC, Oregon's defeat does not seem as ugly to the CFP committee. Georgia would have to lose both of its remaining SEC games (against Mississippi State and Kentucky, both on the road) not to make it to the SEC championship game. That would leave the Vols out of the conference title chase, but would not necessarily eliminate the Vols from CFP consideration (Alabama made it to the CFP in 2017 without qualifying for the SEC championship game). But the CFP committee certainly prefers Power Five conference champions.

Three: Clemson lost to Notre Dame. Clemson was unbeaten and ranked No. 4 in the CFP rankings before getting hammed by the Irish 35-14.  Losing to Notre Dame, which was unranked and lost at home to Marshall and Stanford, looks a lot worse than Oregon's loss to Georgia, or USC's one-point road loss to Utah, or UCLA's road loss to Oregon. Clemson has been virtually eliminated.

Four: LSU beat Alabama. The Tide, whether by reputation or achievement, was still a contender for a CFP berth with one loss and a No. 6 CFP ranking.  But the defeat loss hung on the Tide by LSU -- and former Arizona State quarterback Jayden Daniels -- gave Alabama the deadly second loss.

Five: Oregon, USC and UCLA are all ranked in the top nine of the AP poll released Sunday, and that ranking typically parallels the CFP rankings pretty closely. If the Ducks are ranked No. 6 in Tuesday's CFP rankings are they are in this week's AP poll, they are definitely in the CFP discussion.

Just a few things still work against the Pac-12.

First: TCU posted a comeback win over Texas Tech, enabling the Horned Frogs to stay unbeaten and move to No. 4 in the AP rankings, a spot it is likely to hold in Tuesday's CFP rankings. But next week TCU plays a road game against No. 24 Texas, whose only home loss this season was a one-point defeat against Alabama. A TCU loss in Austin would probably move Pac-12 teams up a notch.

Second: Two Big Ten teams -- Ohio State and Michigan -- remain unbeaten and will no doubt be in the top four of Tuesday's CFP rankings. The winner of their Nov. 26 matchup would be almost assured of a CFP berth, but even the loser will be considered for a CFP bid if it doesn't lose a second game.

Third: Mississippi has just one loss, and if it qualifies for the SEC title game and upsets Georgia there, the Rebels and Georgia might both get CFP berths.

Fourth: Utah, with two losses, is virtually eliminated from CFP consideration, but the Utes could upset the Pac-12 apple cart if they win the rest of their games and win the Pac-12 championship. Logic suggests that no Pac-12 team would have a chance for a national semifinal berth in that case.

Then there is the potential confusing scenario:

If Utah beats Oregon on Nov. 19, it's very possible that three teams will finish with one conference loss, possibly requiring the Pac-12's second or third tiebreaking scenario to determine the Pac-12 championship-game matchup. Oregon does not face USC, complicating the potential tiebreakers.

We are discounting the possibility that USC, UCLA, Oregon or Utah could lose to a Pac-12 opponent outside this four-team juggernaut, but since they are a combined 19-0 against the rest of the Pac-12 teams, it's a reasonable leap of faith.

David Shaw's Status

Even though betting sites have been placing Stanford head coach David Shaw near the top of their lists of coaches likely to be fired, that seemed laughable based on his record with the Cardinal and Stanford's perception of football vis-a-vis academics.

Then came Saturday's embarrassing, 52-14 home loss to Washington State, and narrative changed.

The Cardinal seems headed to to its third straight losing season (excluding the 2020 pandemic season), but consider this:

---Shaw has taken Stanford to the Rose Bowl three times.

---Shaw's winning percentage at Stanford is better than Bill Walsh's winning percentage was with the Cardinal. It's also better than Jim Harbaugh's. And Tyrone Willingham's. And John Ralston's. And Dennis Green's.  In fact, going back 90 years, no coach who spent more that two seasons at Stanford had a better winning percentage with the Cardinal than Shaw has now.  You have to go back to Pop Warner to find a coach who had a better winning percentage at Stanford than Shaw, and Warner's last season on the Farm was 1932. 

Sure, a 52-14 home loss to a team that was 1-4 in the Pac-12 is cause for administrative concern and alumni angst, but who could Stanford hire to do better than Shaw?

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The Replay of the Week

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Top Five Pac-12 Teams

1. Oregon (8-1, 6-0 Pac-12) -- Eight straight wins, scoring more than 40 points in each.

2. USC (8-1, 6-1) -- Trojans' defense makes USC fans a bit nervous, but the offense is great.

3. UCLA (8-1, 5-1) -- Bruins rolled up 402 rushing yards against Arizona State without Zach Charbonnet.

4. Utah (7-2, 5-1) -- With Cam Rising back, Utes are a contender again.

5. Washington (7-2, 4-2) -- The win over Oregon State makes the Huskies the leader of the second tier of Pac-12 teams.

Photo by Rob Schumacher, USA TODAY Network

Pac-12 Player of the Year Standings

1. Quarterback Bo Nix, Oregon -- Sixth in the nation in passer rating and heads the first-place team.

2. Quarterback Caleb Williams, USC -- 28 TD passes, 1 interception.

3. Quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA -- 120 rushing yards Saturday, 439 rushing yards for the season.

4. Quarterback Cam Rising, Utah -- Mediocre numbers Saturday, but he performs when it matters most.

5. Running back Zach Charbonnet, UCLA -- He missed Saturday's game with an injury, but he still leads the Pac-12 and is third nationally in rushing yards per game.

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Cover photo of Dorian Thompson-Robinson by Rob Schumacher, The Republic, USA TODAY Network

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