Pac-12 Football: Is Heisman Race Over? Did Dan Lanning Blow It -- Again?

Questions. Questions. Questions.

Is the Heisman Trophy Race over?

If Washington’s 36-33 victory over Oregon on Saturday had been in the December 1 Pac-12 championship game rather than a game in mid-October, the Heisman Trophy race would be over. Huskies’ quarterback Michael Penix Jr. would be a landslide winner.

But, as we all know, Heisman winners are determined in the final games of the season, moments fresh in the voters’ minds.

For now Penix owns a big lead in the Heisman race after a glorious performance with the necessary “Heisman moment” in a riveting game against a top-10 opponent on national television. That moment came in a two-play span of 33 seconds in courageous fashion.

Struggling with cramps throughout the late stages of the game, Penix came onto the field with his team trailing by four points with 2:11 left and taking over at his own 47-yard line.

“The guy’s cramping, cramping, the entire fourth quarter,” Washington coach Kalen DeBoer said. “He was hunched over, just trying to get a snap, and even some of the play calls might have been affected as far as tempo and rhythm.”

First he throws a 35-yard completion to Ja’Lynn Polk, then on the second play he tosses an 18-yard touchdown pass to Rome Odunze, giving the Huskies a 36-33 lead with 1:38 left.

Of course, if Oregon’s Camden Lewis had made a 43-yard field goal on the game’s final play, the story might have had a different ending. Instead it concluded with an emotional postgame interview with Penix.

Not surprisingly Penix now owns a big lead in the Heisman Trophy race, with the Huskies’ ranking up to No. 5 and becoming a prime candidate for the College Football Playoff.

BetRivers has Penix’s Heisman odds at -130 (10-to-13), Fan Duel and Bet365 have Penix at -140 (5-to-7), and BetMGM places his odds at -145 (20-to-29). Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy are next, way back at about +1000 (10-to-1).

That is a huge gap, but one that can disappear with one glorious game at the end of the season.

Did Oregon’s Dan Lanning blow it with his fourth-down decision – again?

The coaching mantra preached to players is simple: Don’t make the same mistake twice. Lanning didn’t heed that precious slogan.

Last year, with Oregon tied with Washington and the clock ticking under 1:30 left in the game, Lanning decided to go for a first down on a fourth-and-1 play from the Ducks’ 34-yard line. Noah Whittington was stopped for a 1-yard loss, Washington took over with 1:26 left, and Peyton Henry kicked a game-winning field goal for Washington’s 37-34 victory.

Lanning’s postgame quote: “This game 100 percent falls on me."

This year, with Oregon leading by four points, Lanning decided to go for a first down on a fourth-and-3 play from the Huskies’ 47-yard line with 2:16 remaining. Bo Nix throws and incomplete pass, Penix has his Heisman moment, and Oregon loses 36-33.

Lanning’s postgame quote: "This game's 100 percent on me."

Here is the turnaround play and resulting Penix moment:

Is USC a Top-25 Team?

The Trojans’ first game against a ranked team resulted in a 48-20 loss to twice-beaten 21st-ranked Notre Dame, which had lost to Louisville by two touchdowns the previous week.

The Trojans had to sweat out wins over unranked Arizona at home last week and unranked Colorado the week before that, and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams had the worst game of his career against the Irish. He had thrown more than one interception in a game only once in his career, and that was a two-interception game against Baylor when he was an Oklahoma freshman. Williams had thrown only one interception over USC’s first six games, but he threw three picks in the first half against Notre Dame, helping the Irish to an insurmountable 24-3 lead.

USC dropped in the AP rankings for the fourth week in a row. Ranked No. 5 just a few weeks ago, the Trojans slipped to No. 18 in the rankings released Sunday.

The Trojans still rest atop of the Pac-12 standings with a 4-0 conference mark that sits just ahead of Washington’s 3-0 Pac-12 record. The difficult portion of USC’s schedule lies ahead with games against No. 14 Utah, No. 5 Washington, No. 8 Oregon and No. 25 UCLA to come. The Trojans can be thankful they don’t face Oregon State, which improved three spots to No. 12 in this week’s AP rankings.

How did Stanford do it?

Colorado dominated Stanford so thoroughly while taking a 29-0 halftime lead that the TV announcers were spewing anecdotes and back stories in the third quarter, paying little attention to the game.

Somehow, some way, Stanford, a team that had lost to FCS squad Sacramento State earlier this season, got back in the game, winning 46-43 in two overtimes for the biggest comeback in Stanford history and fourth-biggest comeback in conference history.

A statistic shows the difference.

--Stanford wide receiver Elic Ayomanor in the first half: 0 receptions, 0 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns.

--Stanford wide receiver Elic Ayomanor after halftime: 13 receptions, 294 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns, including 1 remarkable TD catch in the first overtime, when he took the ball off the head of Colorado defender Travis Hunter.

ELIC AYOMANOR OVER TRAVIS HUNTER IN OT 😱#SCtop10 pic.twitter.com/5odnyQrttn
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 14, 2023

Should Arizona freshman QB Noah Fifita be placed among the Pac-12 elite?

Pac-12 quarterback royalty includes Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, Caleb Williams and Shedeur Sanders, with Washington State's Cameron Ward and Oregon State’s DJ Uiagalelei approaching regal status as well.

Now here comes redshirt freshman Noah Fifita, whose emergence is sure to invoke the name of Wally Pipp. He was not exactly a player expected to turn around a program. At 5-foot-10, Fifita's size limited him to three-star prospect status out of Servite High School in Anaheim, with Arizona beating out offers from New Mexico, Utah State, Hawaii, Cal, and Fresno State.

But he has lifted Arizona.

Fifita replaced an injured Jayden de Laura in the fourth quarter of the Sept. 23 game against Stanford with Arizona trailing by three points. He completed all four of his passes to lead the Wildcats to a 21-20 comeback victory.

The next week, in his first start, Fifita gave Washington a scare, losing by seven. In his second start, he led Arizona to a 17-0 lead over USC on the Trojans’ home field before losing in the third overtime. And on Saturday, in Pullman, Wash., against 19th-ranked Washington State, Fifita led the Wildcats to a stunningly easy 44-6 victory over the Cougars, outplaying Ward and silencing the crowd.

It was Arizona’s largest margin of victory over a ranked opponent on the road in program history.

Although he did not throw a touchdown pass against Washington State, Fifita also did not throw an interception while completing 34-of-43 pass for 347 yards and being sacked just once. For the season he had thrown eight touchdown passes with two picks, and his passer rating of 156.7 is comparable to that of Ward, Uiagalelei and Sanders.

Arizona coach Jedd Fisch said afterward that Fifita got the start because de Laura was not healthy enough to protect himself. He refused to confirm that Fifita would remain Arizona’s starter when de Laura becomes fully healthy, saying only “I’ll just talk about the game today.”

If Fifita is not the starter, folks in Tucson may have something to say.

Pac-12 Player of the Year Standings

--1. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., Washington – Overwhelming favorite for the Heisman Trophy at this point, but with half a season remaining.

--2. Quarterback Bo Nix, Oregon – He did nothing to hurt his status and may get another crack at Washington.

--3. Wide receiver Rome Odunze, Washington – Second in the nation in receiving yards per game (122.7), just 0.2 yards off the top spot.

--4. Wide receiver Tony Franklin, Oregon – Seventh nationally in receiving yards (114.8), second in touchdown catches (8).

--5 Quarterback Caleb Williams, USC – He still leads the nation in TD passes (23).

--6. Defensive end Jonah Elliss, Utah – Elliss is second in the nation in sacks (9.0) and first in sack yardage (77) on a team that depends on its defense.

Top Five Pac-12 Teams

(We rank based on which teams have had the best results, not which teams we believe are the best teams)

--1. Washington (6-0, 3-0 Pac-12) – The win over Oregon leaves no questions – at least for now.

--2. Oregon (5-1, 2-1) – Losing on the road on a missed 43-yard field goal doesn’t move the Ducks down.

--3. Oregon State (6-1, 3-1) – Convincing wins over Utah and UCLA more than offset a three-point road loss to Washington State

--4. USC (6-1, 4-0) – It’s hard to demote the Trojans considering they are in first place in the conference.

--5. Arizona (4-3, 2-2) – This may be an overreaction to the win over Washington State, but, boy, the Wildcats were impressive.

.Cover photo of Michael Penix Jr. by Steven Bisig, USA TODAY Sports

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