Aaron Rodgers Named All-Pro, Looks Like He'll Be Landslide MVP Winner

Ex-Cal star named first-team All-Pro for the third time; Sports Illustrated poll, oddsmakers suggest easy win for MVP

Former Cal star Aaron Rodgers was named a first-team All-Pro by the Associated Press on Friday, earning that honor for the third time (also 2011 and 2014).  The Packers' quarterback received 46 of 50 first-place votes at quarterback, the wide margin over Patrick Mahomes in that voting increasing the likelihood that he will be named league MVP for a third time. Bill quarterback Josh Allen and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes each received two votes in the All-Pro balloting.

A poll of eight Sports Illustrated experts essentially confirmed what oddsmakers and the general public already knew: Rodgers is almost sure to win the NFL MVP award, and it is likely to be by a comfortable margin.

---(Click here for a story on how Rodgers compares with the best quarterbacks in history.)

Two things are interesting:

---The SI poll had Rodgers as the easy winner of the MVP award but did not have him atop its Offensive Player of the Year voting.

---Neither Patrick Mahomes nor Derrick Henry is the second-favorite for the MVP at most betting sites. Can you guess who is No. 2?

OK. Let’s look at the SI poll first

The MVP voting came out like this, with all but one of the eight experts putting Rodgers on top.

MVP VOTING

1. Aaron Rodgers: 39 points (7 firsts, 1 second)

2. Patrick Mahomes: 31 points (7 seconds, 1 third)

3. Josh Allen: 23 points (7 thirds, 1 fourth)

4. Derrick Henry: 13 points (1 first, 2 fourths, 4 fifths)

T-5. Tom Brady: 5 points (1 fourth, 3 fifths)

T-5. Deshaun Watson: 5 points (2 fourths, 1 fifth)

T-7. Davante Adams: 2 points (1 fourth)

T-7. Lamar Jackson: 2 points (1 fourth)

Henry, who rushed for 2,027 yards, the fifth-highest single-season total in history, was no better than fourth in this MVP poll. But in the Offensive Player of the Year category he was No. 1 in the eight-person SI poll.

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTING

1. Derrick Henry: 34 points (5 firsts, 1 second, 1 third, 1 fourth)

2. Aaron Rodgers: 18 points (2 firsts, 2 seconds)

3. Stefon Diggs: 16 points (2 seconds, 2 thirds)

4. Travis Kelce: 15 points (1 first, 1 second, 1 third, 1 fourth, 1 fifth)

5. Patrick Mahomes: 14 points (2 seconds, 2 thirds)

6. Davante Adams: 10 points (2 thirds, 1 fourth, 2 fifths)

7. Alvin Kamara: 6 points (2 fourths, 2 fifths)

T-8. Josh Allen: 2 points (1 fourth)

T-8. Dalvin Cook: 2 points (1 fourth)

T-8. Darren Waller: 2 points (1 fourth)

11. Wyatt Teller: 1 point (1 fifth)

We are not going to try to explain the reasons MVP and Offensive Player of the Year voting differs because that is an endless discussion with numerous opinions about how each should be judged.

Kansas City Chiefs offensive tackle Mitchell Schwartz, a Cal alumnus, mentioned last Sunday that his quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, should not be penalized for not playing in the final regular-season game:

I like how the MVP debate is like “well if Rodgers wins today he’ll probably win it.” Shouldn’t our guy get credit for winning so much he doesn’t have to play today?? #MVPat

— Mitchell Schwartz (@MitchSchwartz71) January 3, 2021

Rodgers had already passed Mahomes as the MVP favorite the previous week, although Rodgers solidified his MVP claim with an outstanding performance in the finale.

Let’s go on to how betting sites see the MVP race, because there is unanimity there. Rodgers is a heavy favorite to win his third MVP at age 37, and – surprise – Bills quarterback Josh Allen seems to be the second favorite. Allen is a distant second, but he is ahead of Mahomes and Derrick Henry on most betting sites.

Here is small sampling:

Fan Duel had its odds this way on Monday, according to Bleacher Report

1. Aaron Rodgers -3000 (bet $100 to win $3)

2. Josh Allen +1000 (bet $100 to win $1,000)

3. Patrick Mahomes +1400

4. Derrick Henry +5000

5. Ryan Tannehill +10000

6. Davante Adams +30000

Sports Betting Dime had similar odds as of Thursday

Rodgers -2000

Allen +900

Mahomes +1600

Henry +5000

Draft Kings had it the same way, according to covers.com

Rodgers -2000

Allen +900

Mahomes +1600

Henry +5000

Points Bet had Rodgers on top -2000, with Mahomes second at +900, according to a Forbes story on Monday.

The bottom line is the MVP race is for second place. You can see why. Rodgers guided the Packers to a 13-3 record and first-round bye so they won’t play this weekend. He had 48 touchdown passes, tied for the fifth most in NFL history, and the other five quarterbacks all were named MVP that season. Rodgers’ passer rating for this season was 121.5, which is the second-highest in NFL history, topped only by Rodgers’ 122.5 in 2011, when he won his first MVP award.

And you must remember that Rodgers did not become a starter until his fourth NFL season.

Voting for the MVP takes place the week after the final regular-season game, so it began after this past Sunday's games and ends before Saturday's first playoff game. The winner is likely to be announced Feb. 6, the day before the Super Bowl.

One bad omen for Rodgers: The NFL MVP has not won the Super Bowl since the 1999 season (Kurt Warner, St. Louis Cardinals).

Cover photo of Aaron Rodgers by Dan Powers, USA TODAY NETWORK-Wis via Imagn Content Services, LLC 

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Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

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