Cal in NFL: Aaron Rodgers Now the Betting Favorite to Win MVP

Patrick Mahomes may not play in Sunday's regular-season finale, and Rodgers surged ahead with a big game on national TV Sunday

How much difference can one game late in the season make in a player’s image? 

Well, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes was the betting favorite to win his second NFL MVP award virtually the entire 2020 season. That ended this week after Packers quarterback and former Cal star Aaron Rodgers put on a remarkable performance in Green Bay’s 40-14 victory over the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. 

Rodgers had four touchdown passes, one interception and a 128.1 passer rating. And, perhaps most importantly, he did it in a nationally televised Sunday night game against a team fighting for a playoff berth.

Meanwhile, Mahomes had perhaps his worst game of the season in a 17-14 victory over the lowly Atlanta Falcons, recording two touchdown passes, one interception and a season-low passer rating of 79.5.

Suddenly everybody’s opinion changed, and Rodgers is the favorite to win his third MVP award.

The Sporting News suggests the race is still a tossup, but virtually everyone else has declared Rodgers the winner unless he has a disastrous game in the regular-season finale against the Bears.

Even Newsweek, which is known more for its coverage of domestic and international news than its sports analysis, declared Rodgers is the favorite.

During NBC’s telecast of the Packers-Titans game, analyst Cris Collinsworth said Rodgers’ performance should all but wrap up the MVP award for him. That kind of declaration from a respected former player carries a lot of weight.

Mahomes may not get a chance to improve his standing because Chiefs coach Andy Reid said Monday he will rest many of his starters for the team’s final regular-season game against the Chargers on Sunday. The Chiefs have already clinched the AFC’s only first-round bye, so there is no reason to risk injury for Mahomes.

Former NFL tight end Shannon Sharpe made the argument that most observers are making this week:

Bottom line, the oddsmakers are making Rodgers the MVP favorite for the first time this season.

Yahoo notes that on Monday morning BetMGM had Rodgers at -150 to win the MVP with Mahomes at +160. Then when Reid announced that Mahomes may not play on Sunday, BetMVP made Rodgers a bigger favorite at -225.

(Explanation: A favorite is accompanied by a minus (-) sign, indicating the amount a person needs to bet to win $100. Odds for underdogs are accompanied by a positive (+) sign, indicating the amount of money a person would win if he bets $100. In the above example in which Rodgers is -225, a person would have to wager $225 to win $100 if Rodgers were named MVP.)

The VegasInsider website, which is the one we most often refer to, has Rodgers the favorite at -250 and Mahomes second at +200.

And VegasInsider offers a comparison of how far the 37-year-old Rodgers has come from Week One.

NFL DraftKings has Rodgers at -250 and Mahomes at +220 to win the MVP

Forbes joined the wagon-jumping by noting that Rodgers became the FanDuel favorite for the first time all season, reporting this:

After a big Week 16, Rodgers became the favorite for the first time all season at -155. Rodgers’ odds before last week were +334.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes entered Week 16 a prohibitive favorite at -334. But after a rough day against Atlanta, Mahomes saw his odds lengthen to +145.

CBS Sports also cited the turnaround, noting that on Monday William Hill Sportsbook has Rodgers at -220 and Mahomes at +180.

Using the odds that non-gamblers understand, BetOnlin.ag showed the change in odds from last week to this week:

Dec. 22 odds:

Patrick Mahomes: 1-to-3

Aaron Rodgers: 9-to-4

Josh Allen: 9-to-1

Derrick Henry: 22-to-1

.

Current Odds:

Aaron Rodgers: 1-to-4

Patrick Mahomes: 5-to-2

Josh Allen: 14-to-1

Derrick Henry: Off the Board

And there are other tidbits that could go along with the Rodgers’ argument that he should win the MVP.

Aaron Rodgers had his 13th game with a 100+ passer rating this season, tying himself in 2011 and Patrick Mahomes in 2018 for the most such games in a single season in NFL history

Both Rodgers in 2011 and Mahomes in 2018 finished as that season's NFL MVP

— NFL Research (@NFLPlus) December 28, 2020

And there are some numbers we don’t pretend to understand, but they sure do look good..

Aaron Rodgers completed 84.0% of his passes tonight in the @packers win, +14.6% over expected (by CPOE). Rodgers' two best CPOE performance since 2016 have come over his three last games (+15.0% in Wk 14 vs DET).

➤ 21/25, 231 yards, 4 TD, INT (+14.6% CPOE)#TENvsGB | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/EMqGhjCEM7

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) December 28, 2020

Cover photo of Aaron Rodgers by Rick Wood Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via Imagn Content Services, LLC

.

Follow Jake Curtis of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jakecurtis53

Find Cal Sports Report on Facebook by searching: @si.calsportsreport

Click the "follow" button in the top right corner to join the conversation on Cal Sports Report on SI. Access and comment on featured stories and start your own conversations and post external links on our community page.