Collin Morikawa, Max Homa Among Top 15 Favorites at U.S. Open

Morikawa says his back is fine. Homa returns to the scene of his NCAA title and course-record round

Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite in the third major of the year, the U.S. Open, but former Cal standouts Collin Morikawa and Max Homa are both among the top 15 favorites for the event, which starts Thursday at Los Angeles Country Club.

Scheffler, Homa and Morikawa are in the same threesome for the first two rounds, teeing off at 8:13 a.m. Pacific time on Thursday.

"It's nice they put the three good-looking guys together again," Homa said Tuesday.

Morikawa and Homa have the advantage of familiarity, since both are from the L.A. area and know the course well. Morikawa, who is seeking his third major title, says he is staying at his parents’ house during the tournament, and adds that his back is fine after back spasms caused him to withdraw from his most recent tournament. He did mention the back issue will cause him to use a “weird” behavior before teeing up this week (more on that later).

Homa, who is looking for his first major crown, is returning to the site where he won the NCAA individual title in 2013 but suffered a crushing defeat in the team competition in that same event 10 years ago. He also owns the course record at Los Angeles Country Club, shooting a 61 while winning the NCAA title a decade ago.

We will investigate the chances of Morikawa and Homa later in this article, but first we take a look at the odds from six betting sites – SI Sportsbook, Fan Duel, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet and Draft Kings with information on the latter five provided by Vegas Insider.

The top 15

1. Scottie Scheffler – Odds range: 6-to-1 up to 6.5-to-1

2. Jon Rahm – Odds range: 9-to-1 up to 11-to-1

3. Brooks Koepka – Odds range: 9-to-1 up to 12-to-1

4. Rory McIlroy – Odds range: 12-to-1 up to 16-to-1

5. Viktor Hovland – Odds range: 12-to-1 up to 18-to-1

6. Patrick Cantlay – Odds range: 14-to-1 up to 16-to-1

7. Xander Schauffele – Odds range: 18-to-1 across the board

8. Will Zalatoris – Odds range: 20-to-1 up to 28-to-1

9. Jordan Spieth – Odds range: 22-to-1 up to 30-to-1

10. Max Homa – Odds range: 22-to-1 to 35-to-1

11. Cameron Smith – Odds range: 25-to-1 up to 30-to-1

12. Tyrrell Hatton – Odds range: 28-to-1 up to 33-to-1

13. Matt Fitzpatrick – Odds range: 28-to-1 up to 35-to-1

14. Collin Morikawa – Odds range: 30-to-1 up to 35-to-1

15. Tony Finau – Odds range: 30-to-1 up to 40-to-1

You will note the wide range of odds for Homa. Presumably that’s because he is the No. 7-ranked golfer in the world but has struggled in majors. He has competed in 15 majors, missed the cut in eight of them and never finished better than 13th.

He is back on familiar ground at the Los Angeles Country Club. He won the 2013 NCAA individual title there with the course-record round of 61, but he later lost a semifinal match on the second extra hole in the deciding matchup in Cal’s semifinal loss in the team competition. As you can see in this video, it was a crushing loss for Homa:

He was a bit more upbeat in his Tuesday session with the media, noting that he is trying not to try too hard in a major, which has been a problem in the past. He also notes he could have shot 59 in 2013 when he set the course record of 61:

Morikawa’s chances this week might depend on his health. Ten days ago, he had to withdraw from the Memorial Tournament after three rounds because of back spasms, even though he was in contention to win the event. In the video below he addresses his back injury, starting about 9:40 into the video. He says the injury occurred while he was loosening up before he set foot on the course for the fourth round. He also said that his back is fine, adding that the only concession to the back issue was “I might be teeing up kind of weirdly this week.”

Later in the video Morikawa described the “weird” approach he will use:

“I pretty much squat down and tee it up,” he said.

Morikawa was once ranked as high as No. 2 in the world and he won the 2020 PGA Championship as well as The (British) Open in 2021. But he is now ranked 18th and has not finished higher than fifth in the six majors since his last major victory in 2021.

So what do the experts think of the chances of Morikawa and Homa?

Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com places both Morikawa and Homa in a group of 10 players with the heading “The guys who can win,” with these comments:

Collin Morikawa

Morikawa's form hasn't been up to his lofty standards this season. He has just four top-10s in 17 starts, but he did tie for 10th at the Masters. His ballstriking and familiarity with Los Angeles Country Club will come in handy. The L.A. native was on the 2017 Walker Cup team and went 4-0 in matches there.

Max Homa

One factoid you'll hear a lot this week: Homa set the still-standing LACC North Course record with a 9-under 61 in the first round of the 2013 Pac-12 championship. It was the UC Berkeley senior's first college win; he would win an NCAA individual championship a few weeks later. Homa has won six times on the PGA Tour but hasn't performed well in majors.

The Golf Channel put Homa at No. 6 and Morikawa at No. 14 in its ranking of how each player in the U.S. Open field stacks up. The author of the rankings, Brentley Romine, added these comments:

6. Max Homa:

Yes, he shot 61 here en route to winning the 2013 Pac-12 Championship. But that’s not why he’s ranked this highly. Owns a handful of top-10s in the past few months. Ranks second in par-3 scoring and fifth in strokes gained putting in addition to being top 12 in strokes gained approach. Some slight wedge play improvement and he can win.

14. Collin Morikawa:

Back spasms knocked him out of Memorial when he was just two shots off the lead and about to tee off in the final round. If healthy, he’s an elite iron player who is No. 11 in par-3 scoring. Short putting is always a concern, though Morikawa’s approach play usually always makes up for it. Was one of three players to go 4-0 in the 2017 Walker Cup at LACC; he also teamed with Norman Xiong that week to post a record 8-and-7 foursomes victory. But again, is he healthy enough?

Patrick McDonald of CBS Sports notes that Homa is in a group of “Almost Favorites” and says this:

I am almost certain Homa is this high up due to liability -- ask anyone, and they have a ticket on the six-time winner. Homa holds the course record at LACC with a 61 during the 2013 Pac-12 Championships, but that's where the positive vibes end. He is the only player inside the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings without a major top-10 finish. In order to bust the door down on his first major, Homa would need to snap a 43-major streak of champions having at least one top-10 finish prior to their victory. Webb Simpson was the last to win without one at the 2012 U.S. Open at the Olympic Club.

McDonald of CBS Sports notes in another story that he does not think much of Homa’s chances:

Star who definitely won't win -- Max Homa: The L.A. native is the only player inside the top 10 of the Official World Golf Rankings without a top-10 finish in a major championship. Not since Webb Simpson in 2012 has a player gone onto win a major without a prior top 10. Homa has flashed some form, and he has a nice history here. This is a massive home game for him, but it may ultimately prove to be too much to handle.

Finally, USA Today selected four players whose odds to win the U.S. Open looked favorable. The four were Scheffler, McIlroy, Smith and Homa, with this comment from Riley Hamel about Homa:

The King of California — four of Homa’s six Tour wins have come in the Golden State — is back in his hometown this week as he tries to capture his first major championship.

Although he tied for 55th at the PGA Championship, Homa finished T-8 at the Wells Fargo and T-9 at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

At the 2013 Pac-12 Championship, Homa fired a course-record 61 at LACC.

Cover photo of Collin Morikawa by Michael Madrid, USA TODAY Sports

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