Cal Golf: What Are Collin Morikawa's Chances This Week at the Masters?

Fellow Golden Bear grad Max Homa also is playing at Augusta National.

All eyes will be on Tiger Woods when the 86th Masters begins in Thursday, but the five-time champion is not generally regarded as a serious threat to win at August National.

Collin Morikawa, on the other hand, is among the elite golfers considered to have a shot at winning, according to CBS Sports, Golf Digest and ESPN.

Homa tees off Thursday at 7:01 a.m. PDT in a threesome with Kevin Na and Shane Lowry. Morikawa goes off at 10:30 a.m. PDT along with Dustin Johnson and Billy Horschel.

Here are the betting odds entering the start of play Thursday:

The favorites:

Jon Rahm +1000 (10-to-1)
Justin Thomas +1400
Dustin Johnson +1600
Cameron Smith +1600
Scottie Scheffler +1600
Rory McIlroy +1800
Brooks Koepka +2000
Patrick Cantlay +2000
Jordan Spieth +2000
Viktor Hovland +2000
Collin Morikawa +2000

Others:

Xander Schauffele +2200
Bryson DeChambeau +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
Daniel Berger +4000
Louis Oosthuizen +4000
Paul Casey +5000
Tiger Woods +5000
Adam Scott +5000
Tony Finau +5000
Tommy Fleetwood +5500
Justin Rose +6500
Bubba Watson +6500
Max Homa +8000

-- Here's a story by Golf Digest dissecting Woods' impressive iron accuracy.

And here is how an assortment of golf writers view the chances this week of Morikawa and fellow Cal grad Max Homa:

—KYLE PORTER OF CBS SPORTS pegs Justin Thomas as the favorite. He ranks Jon Rahm at No. 2, Brooks Koepka at No. 3 and has Morikawa as his No. 4 pick. Here’s what Porter had to say about the two-time major winner:

4. Collin Morikawa (T18 in 2021): Put him on the list of folks who got shoot earlier in his career by feeling like he need to deviate from what he does best (which is hit flush-flush 2-yard fades on repeat for however long you want him to do so). It will likely come down to whether he's having a hot putting week. Eight times he's gained 3.6 strokes or more for an event with his putter, and all eight are top-five finishes (three of them are wins).

Porter ranks Woods No. 34.

Max Homa during a practice round at the Masters :: Photo by Kyle Terada-Augusta Chronicle/USA TODAY Network

Here’s his assessment of Homa, whom he ranks at No. 40:

40. Max Homa (MC in 2021): Homa has pretty quietly been playing some quality golf. He has top 20s in five of his last six stroke-play events, including Riviera, Bay Hill and Phoenix (all with great fields) and has been lights out from tee to green. He also might be the only pro in the field who would genuinely appreciate winning this even as much as the rest of us believe we would if we had the opportunity to play in it.

— KYLE BOONE OF CBS SPORTS pegs Morikawa as his favorite:

Winner -- Collin Morikawa (20-1): Two-time major champion, still 25 years old, one of golf's best and most consistent ball-strikers. What's not to like here, especially at 20-1? His putting has improved substantially, too, and tee-to-green he's one of the best on the PGA Tour. Completing the third leg of the career grand slam at his age would put him in some rarefied air.

— DAN RAPAPORT OF GOLF DIGEST ranked the entire field and echoes Porter’s endorsement of Thomas as the favorite. He has Koepka at No. 2, Scottie Scheffler at No. 3 and places Woods at No. 45.

Rapaport ranks Morikawa at No. 7:

7. Collin Morikawa

Age: 25 World Ranking: 3 Masters appearances: 2
Best Masters finish: T-18, 2021
He’s played eight majors in his young career and he’s halfway to the career Grand Slam. Turns out being the best iron player on the planet with a mature-beyond-his-years head on his shoulders is a good recipe for the toughest crucibles in the sport. Looked poised to become World No. 1 after a runner-up finish at the Genesis Invitational but he caught the wrong side of the draw at the Players, chipped and putted awfully at the Valspar and watched Scottie Scheffler leapfrog him after WGC-Match Play. Has looked better with the putter in his hands in recent months as he continues to groove in his new “saw” grip, and this week should serve as the ultimate test of the flatstick. Plays a cut almost exclusively with driver but has made a concerted effort to drill a 3-wood draw with Augusta in mind. Made the cut in both of his Masters starts and looked increasingly comfortable en route to a T-18 last year.

And here’s Rapaport’s analysis of Home’s chances:

28. Max Homa

Age: 31 World Ranking: 37 Masters appearances: 2
Best Masters finish: MC, 2020, 2021
Going on three years now that he’s been more than just the “Twitter Guy.” Had two wins in 2021: the stacked Genesis Invitational and the Fortinet Championship to begin this wraparound season. He’s now firmly entrenched in the top 50 of the World Ranking, which gets him into all the majors … but he’s been bitterly disappointed in them, having missed the cut in six of his last seven starts, including both Masters. He’s a cerebral fellow and will have analyzed why that’s happened, flushed it from memory and be eager to start anew. Tends to play well on the West Coast and did so again this year, with a T-14 in Phoenix and a T-10 at the Genesis, and carried it over into Florida with two top-20s at Bay Hill and the Players.

— ESPN put golfers in a various categories, rating their odds of winning. Among Tier 1: The guys who can win, are Scheffler, Thomas, Rahm, Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, Hideki Matsuyama, Rory McElroy, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele, Koeppka, Louis Oosthuizen, Daniel Berger.

Yep, it’s a generous list.

Here’s what ESPN wrote about Morikawa’s prospects:

Collin Morikawa: If Augusta National is truly a second-shot course, then you have to like Morikawa's chances. In 2020-21, he led the tour in shots gained: approach (1.17), and he's seventh in greens in regulation (72.2%) this season. He won the 2020 PGA Championship and 2021 Open Championship in his first starts in those events, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him win a green jacket in his third Masters start.

ESPN’s Pier II list of those who can win “If Everything Goes Right,” includes Woods, but also Homa:

Max Homa: Homa has been in good form with four straight top-20 finishes in stroke-play events. He missed the cut in each of his first two Masters starts.

Cover photo of Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele by Danielle Parhizkaran-Augusta Chronicle/USA TODAY Network

Follow Jeff Faraudo of Cal Sports Report on Twitter: @jefffaraudo