Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Keys to the Game: @ Central Florida Knights

Cincinnati is 15-5 all-time against UCF.

CINCINNATI — Teetering as a trip to Florida looms.

Cincinnati has lost consecutive games in the Big 12 and is yet to win two league contests in a row as it faces the likely scenario of needing five wins in the final seven games to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time this decade.

Insert longtime rival UCF, a team they've beaten 15 out of 20 times, including three in a row. Cincinnati enters this contest ranked 35th in the NET and 36th on KenPom, while UCF is 65th in the NET and on KenPom.

ESPN expects UCF to break the streak and put Cincinnati's season on life support (56.2% Matchup Predictor favorite). Three of the Bearcats' past four losses to UCF have come on the road.

When UCF Has The Ball

It's a similar story in this one from the January matchup out of a UCF offense that loves to attack the basket and search for contact.

This is the worst shooting team in the conference overall (39.3% in Big 12 play) and a bottom three outside shooting squad (30.5% from deep in Big 12, 12th). Lead guard Jaylin Sellers (17.0 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 1.2 Ast) is still the top offensive piece to stop.

Cincinnati struggled against him earlier this year but did a good job limiting all other options from getting to their spots. Points are at a premium in this matchup of top-20 defenses nationally (UCF 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency). The Bearcats have a much more consistent offense and cannot let UCF get hot at home like they've tended to do this season.

The Knights average 75.1 points at home, but less than 60 on the road as they've shown great comfort with those friendly sight lines. In Big 12 play, they've only lost at home to top-15 opponents. It's a completely different animal than the one that came into Clifton.

Sellers is a tall task to slow down, and guard Darius Johnson (17.8 points, six assists, 3.3 rebounds past four games) has been even harder to cover over the past four outings. None of the other UCF players can score as consistently as those two hot hands.

Cincinnati must pressure them into mid-range and three-point shots with disciplined defense and strong defensive rebounding. UCF is an active glass team that thrives on creating extra chances at one of the best rates in the country (5.5 extra possessions per game, 13th nationally).

When Cincinnati Has The Ball

Grind through a tough half-court defense and hit outside shots. That's the formula, as it's difficult to envision UCF shooting just 36% at home like it did on the road last month.

Cincinnati's defense nullified their terrible outside shooting in the 11-point win (3-of-14 from deep, 21-of-38 inside the arc). Getting Ibrahima Diallo (6.0 Pts, 6.0 Reb, 1.9 Blk) into foul trouble again is a great way to start replicating that fantastic two-point mark.

He fouled out in just six minutes last month, with UCF's interior defense hurting as he sat on the bench. Backup center Omar Payne (4.6 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 0.6 Ast) is a decent replacement, but he's not nearly as consistent possession to possession. Cincinnati must work into the Knights' frontcourt depth to chip away at a normally strong interior defense (46.8% mark allowed from two, third in Big 12 play).

The turnovers cannot carry over from the Iowa State loss.

UCF is third in the Big 12 with 7.9 steals per game as a team, showing very active hands in passing lanes. They turn those swipes into points more often than not as the 131st team nationally in pace and 67th-best team in fastbreak point tally (12.57 points per game).

The UC coaching staff will surely have those turnover issues largely hammered out in the practices between games.

Prediction: Cincinnati 71-70

Given how well UCF scores the ball at home—this is a true toss-up.

I give the slight coaching and talent edge to UC—with it being enough to keep the season alive and add a crucial Quad 1 road win to the resume.

Jamille Reynolds posts his best game as Bearcat against his former team to spark a frontcourt resurgence for UC that unlocks three or four triples from CJ Fredrick to help win a nip-tuck affair.

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