Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: Arizona Wildcats

UC has not beaten Arizona in the last 70 years.

Dec 30, 2024; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats guard Simas Lukosius (41) shoots against Kansas State Wildcats guard Coleman Hawkins (33) during the first half at Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — Wes Miller and the Bearcats are trying to bounce back this weekend and get to 1-1 in Big 12 play with a win over the Arizona Wildcats at home.

AU rolls into town for the Saturday tip-off at 2:30 p.m ET on ESPN2. The Bearcats fell 70-67 in its opening Big 12 game against Kansas State, while the Wildcats won 90-81 over TCU before the new year.

Cincinnati enters this game ranked No. 25 in the NET as of this writing, while AU is No. 23. The KenPom rankings are similar with UC at No. 24 and AU at No. 21. A tight, tight matchup is in store between these two teams.

UC is 0-4 against Arizona since the 1949-50 season with a -28 point differential.

Offensive Storyline: Finding Simas Lukošius

Cincinnati's offense has been largely spotty over the past four games. They destroyed Grambling State with 84 points but didn't crack 70 points in games against Dayton, Xavier, and Kansas State.

Missing impact from its leading scorer is a big reason. Cincinnati's turned the ball over too often recently (24 combined against Dayton and KSU), and hasn't been able to get Simas Lukošius cooking like he did in November and early December. 

The sharpshooter has been anything but in the past four games. Lukošius is averaging 9.5 points, 1.5 assists, and 3.3 rebounds in the past four games (18.5% from deep on 6.8 attempts). He's been largely a ghost and it's forced other players to pick up the slack in unfamiliar roles. The Lithuanian was never going to shoot 50% from deep all season, but they need much better marks than 18.5% to meet any of their goals the rest of the way.

Cincinnati got six combined threes from Dillon Mitchell and Dan Skillings Jr. on Monday and still lost. A painful pill to swallow wasting those uncharacteristic showings (six combined made threes from that duo all season before Monday).

There was too much slack to grab on Monday and Cincinnati has to unlock Lukošius on Saturday against a good defense in Arizona (No. 34 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency). Dig deeper though, and you get a nice matchup for Lukošius to bounce back. AU allows 26.2 three-point tries per game (324th), and teams hit 33.8% of those shots (231st).

They are willing to let teams shoot to add more bodies inside and defend the rim (33 two-point attempts allowed per game, 82nd nationally). Cincinnati has to get up close to 30 triples with good actions to boost Lukošius and those shooters open.

Better, harder screening and timely accuracy will give Cincinnati a great shot to win, but they have to force AU out of their defensive comfort zone and that starts with getting Lukošius going and working closer to the rim from there.

Defensive Storyline: Slow Down A Top Scorer

Cincinnati has played great defense throughout much of the Miller era, but they've struggled mightily to contain the top options on other teams and that's been a theme again this season.

UC's faced three high-usage stars thus far in Xavier's Zach Freemantle (18 points, seven rebounds, contained to two second-half points), Villanova's Eric Dixon (31 points, seven rebounds), and KSU's Coleman Hawkins (20 points, 10 rebounds).

It's safe to say things have gone pretty poorly against that trio. Freemantle got shut down in the second half last month, and Cincinnati needs to slow down Caleb Love (16.7 points per game, third in Big 12, 4.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists) on Saturday afternoon. The veteran guard is coming off a 33-point outing against TCU and turns this Arizona offense into one of the best in the nation when he's got things rolling (16th-best adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom).

The 6-3 gunner is posting a career-best 51.5% effective field goal rate this season, playing the most efficient ball of his career with the same No. 1-scorer killer attitude that's seen him reach the Final Four with North Carolina. If he gets hot from outside (31% this season on eight attempts per game), Cincinnati will lose this game.

AU is a horrid deep shooting team (30.8%, 308th nationally), which sees Love take over a third of their attempts. They make up for it with hyper-efficient play inside the arc (58.5% two-point mark, 38th nationally), and foul hunting (23.3 FT attempts per game, 48th nationally). Cincinnati can't let Love go 5-11 from outside like he did against TCU. Everything opens up all over the floor for the Wildcats if so.

Throwing timely double teams at Love and forcing him to distribute is the strongest path to victory here. He boasts a 25.8% usage rate (ninth-highest in the Big 12), with no other entrenched rotation player above 21%. Forcing the rest of the roster to step up and make plays is imperative on Saturday afternoon against a paced-up AU offense (51st nationally in adjusted tempo, fastest-paced offense UC's faced so far this season).

Prediction: 73-72 Bearcats 

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