Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: At Baylor Bears

UC has dropped two games in a row for the first time this season.

Mar 14, 2024; Kansas City, MO, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats guard Dan Skillings Jr. (0) drives past Baylor Bears guard Jayden Nunn (2) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images / William Purnell-Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats fumbled two winnable games at the start of Big 12 Play. Now, things take a big step up in difficulty this week, starting with a road trip to face No. 25 Baylor on Tuesday night at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Cincinnati is searching for offensive consistency against a team they are 0-2 against since the 1949-50 season. The Bearcats enter this game ranked No. 32 in the NET to Baylor's No. 24 ranking and look similarly on KenPom. Cincinnati is 28th there, while Baylor is 22nd.

The Bearcats are 1-2 in road games this season and pulling the upset could recharge hope from a 10-1 non-conference run.

“Congratulations to Arizona," Wes Miller said after Saturday's 72-67 loss. "I thought they came in and played with great energy defensively and made it difficult for us and made plays. I thought we did a nice job of digging back into the game and showing some character when we were down 18 at one point. I was proud of that part and then I was not pleased with the offensive and defensive execution in the last minute, but you have to give them credit for making plays.” 

Cincinnati has to make plays of their own, ideally of the shot-making variety for them to pull off the road upset on Tuesday night. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Baylor a 69.1% chance to win this next matchup.

Offensive Storyline: Can Shots Start Falling?

Cincinnati's shooting tumble continued against Arizona and has seen their No. 1 ranked field goal rate from late November (53.8%)—drop all the way down to 47.8% (65th nationally).

UC's shooting accuracy has fallen off a small cliff and they need to catch the wall and start climbing back up. Saturday was their worst three-point shooting day of the season (5-25), and they'll lose again if that repeats in Waco.

Baylor is a solid— but not great defensive team, ranking 52nd nationally in adjusted defensive rating on KenPom. Veteran big man Norchad Omier (15.5 points, 10.8 rebounds), and freshman guard phenom V.J. Edgecombe (11.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists) are the biggest defensive pillars to overcome, and it won't be easy. Omier boasts a 91.3 defensive rating (14th in Big 12) in his minutes as a daunting 6-7, 230-pound force, while Edgecombe is right behind him at a 91.6 rating with his Big 12-leading 5.3% steal rate.

Keeping the ball moving and away from those two stoppers is imperative to bringing rhythm back in this unit. Cincinnati has to shoot better in this game and getting more than 15 points off the bench (Arizona tally) would be a huge boon.

The Bearcats are shooting 28.7% from deep on 24.9 attempts per game since the Alabama State win. Baylor is a great opponent to turn things around against, allowing 37% from deep (339th) and 8.5 makes per game (301st). Getting to the glass hard, running in transition, and swinging the ball in the halfcourt for triple hunting is the strongest path to keeping up with Baylor's well-balanced offense and pulling an upset.

At least 10 made threes feels like a must to win on Tuesday night.

Defensive Storylines: Balanced Baylor

Cincinnati may not have much leeway to play a full 10-man rotation on Tuesday night. They can't afford to have young mistakes from guys like Tyler Betsey and Arrinten Page hurt them like they did against Arizona.

That duo had a defensive rating over 120 points per 100 possessions and Page had two fouls in his nine minutes. It amounted to a -8 plus/minus combined in their 24 minutes. Those two and the whole roster have to defend as well as they have against any team they've faced so far this season.

Omier and Edgecombe are part of a five-man offensive buzzsaw—with those two and three others averaging 10-plus points per game. Head coach Scott Drew has built an assembly line of balanced offense in his years with the program. Omier is a vacuum leading the conference in rebounding and that jumpstarts their whole offense.

They overpower teams with 10-plus more shots per game this season. A win starts with overcoming that challenge. UC is ranked just 171st nationally with 25.5 defensive rebounds per game— Baylor grabs an astounding 14.5 offensive rebounds per game (15th nationally). The Bears will win this game by double-digits if they own that head-to-head matchup. UC must hold up on the glass and even out the shot totals.

Do that, and UC could hang around long enough to pull late-game magic, but even then, a hot shooting night will void the boards. Baylor is more than capable of that, ranking 62nd nationally with a 36.7% mark from deep and a 1.163 points per possession mark this season (22nd nationally).

Holding up on the glass and avoiding turnovers like they had in the first half against Arizona will keep them in the game—but it won't be easy against a hounding Baylor on-ball defense (15.4 forced turnovers per game, 30th nationally).

Prediction: 74-69 Bears

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