Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: Dayton Flyers

Another highly-anticipated game in Downtown Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bearcats guard Dan Skillings Jr. (0) drives on Dayton Flyers guard Koby Brea (4) in the first half of the NCAA men's basketball game between the Dayton Flyers and Cincinnati Bearcats at Heritage Bank Center in Cincinnati on Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

CINCINNATI — The local matchups continue for Cincinnati in a rare non-conference slate featuring Xavier, Northern Kentucky, and now No. 22 Dayton.

The Flyers are Cincinnati's best opponent yet in the 2024-25 campaign, with Friday's game happening at Heritage Bank Center in a downtown Cincy neutral-site battle at 8:30 p.m. on ESPNU. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives UC a 70.2% chance to win the game.

UC enters the game ranked 24th on KenPom, while Dayton is 31st.

Dayton's been one of the best offensive teams in the country (13th in adjusted off. efficiency on KenPom), while Cincinnati's been just as good on defense (10th in adjusted def. efficiency).

"I'm still going through our preparation process, so hopefully there's a lot more work to be done," UC head coach Wes Miller said on Tuesday. "First off, they're incredibly well coached, so give Anthony Grant, his staff, a lot of credit, but they're very skilled. They're very dynamic at guard. They have a ton of guards, and I won't start naming names because I don't want to offend somebody unnecessarily, but there's a ton of guards."

Cincinnati's played Dayton the sixth-most times of any team since the 1949-50 season as they look to avenge last season's loss and move to 45-17 all-time in that stretch.

Offensive Storyline: Ballhandler Discipline

Dayton is a stronger offensive team than defensive but still represents the first top-50 defense Cincinnati's faced this season, largely driven by pesky guard defense in man-to-man looks. Jizzle James, Simas Lukošius, and the rest of UC's backcourt have to be dialed in all game long to get this win.

Dayton turns teams over (five steals forced per game, 17th nationally) and takes care of the ball well on the other end. The Flyers won't try to run consistently all game as one of the slower-paced teams in the country, but give them those easier transition chances and you're in big trouble against a team already shooting 49.5% from the floor this season (25th nationally). Enter a UC team built to squash that advantage.

Cincinnati is only turning the ball over 9.56 times per game (17th nationally) and has a good enough half-court offense to give Dayton big problems. I expect James to bounce back in a big way from his 0-11 shooting outing against Xavier, and one way to do it is to keep up a strong 5.1/1.8 assist-to-turnover ratio. His ability to probe into the paint and find big men for easy buckets near the rim is imperative (Dayton is allowing 48.9% from two-point range, 162nd nationally)

Enoch Cheeks (14.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.8 steals per game) is one of the best defensive guards in the country, leading the team in steals and defensive rating. Cincinnati has a great chance to get its ninth win if James and the backcourt can overpower the 6-3, 190-pound talent.

Defensive Storyline: Hunt Fouls, Attack The Rim

Cincinnati's superior lineup size helped them wear down Xavier's defense into the second half this past Saturday, and that needs to happen again Friday. Dayton has only been beaten twice this season (losses to UNC and Iowa State in the Maui Invitational), those teams shot a combined 63 free throws at an over 80% clip.

Free throws are so important in these nip/tuck games, something Cincinnati knows well after posting 19 makes at the line against Xavier. They are still one of the worst teams in the country at the line (62.1%, 354th nationally), and have to keep climbing with a good performance Friday. Another size advantage for Cincinnati should help them weather a dynamic Dayton offense and get going toward the free-throw line on the other end.

Cheeks is one of four Flyers averaging 11-plus points per game in the most balanced lineup UC's had on the schedule yet. Cheeks is joined by other strong ballhandlers like Malachi Smith (11.1 points, 5.9 assists), and Javon Bennett (9.1 points, 2.6 assists). They are an elite passing team that will test Cincinnati's switching ability in man-to-man defense (Dayton is averaging 17.5 assists per game, 31st nationally). 

Dillon Mitchell can flip the game with his defensive mind (82.9 defensive rating this season, 14th-best nationally). He'll have plenty of chances to jump passing lanes and make up for coverage lapses around the rim. It'll take quick processing in the halfcourt, Dayton gives opponents little leeway to recover before fouling, making up for a lack of size with strong footspeed at nearly every position (22.4 free throw attempts per game, 72nd nationally). 

UC has a great chance to take bragging rights back if it can punish the smaller Dayton lineup with foul trouble and stay controlled in the half-court against their ball movement.

Prediction: 72-69 Bearcats

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