Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: Kansas Jayhawks

UC is strying to wash away a three-game losing streak.

Cincinnati Bearcats guard Simas Lukosius (41) handles the ball as Kansas Jayhawks forward K.J. Adams Jr. (24) guards him in the second half of the Big 12 Conference tournament game between Cincinnati Bearcats and Kansas Jayhawks at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo., on Wednesday, March 13, 2024. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats basketball team is trying to break out of a funk against No. 11 Kansas (11-3, 2-1). UC welcomes the Jayhawks to Fifth Third Arena for a 2 p.m. ET tip on ESPN+ this Saturday.

UC is 0-3 in Big 12 play so far and is in the thick of its first three-game losing streak of the season. Adversity is hitting the Bearcats hard, but they can really start turning things back in the right direction with a win.

Kansas enters the game ranked 10th in the NET rankings and on KenPom, while Cincinnati is 35th in the NET and 33rd on KenPom. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has Kansas winning this game 56.7% of the time. Cincinnati just took its worst loss by scoring margin as a Big 12 member, 68-48, to Baylor.

"We certainly had discussions on the bench among the coaching staff on a number of things (in-game)," UC head coach Wes Miller said after the loss. "Our half-court, man-to-man defense has been the most reliable thing we've had going all year long. I even felt tonight that when we locked in on all five, we felt there would be a breakthrough. Give them credit,they got a handful of baskets in transition and our defense had a lack of effort to get back."

This marks the first matchup between the schools in Cincinnati since 1964.

Offensive Storyline: Do You Believe In Miracles?

Kansas is not the team you want to play amidst five sub-70-point games in the past six outings by UC. The Jayhawks rank fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom and are well-built to completely stifle a flailing Cincinnati offense.

Jizzle James (7.7 points per game, 32.2% effective field goal rate in conference play) and Simas Lukošius (six PPG, 36.8% eff. FG rate) have to completely flip their play from the opening three games in the Big 12 for Cincinnati to have any chance at keeping pace with a top-25 offense on the other side.

It's going to be extremely difficult to score inside against the full-game combination of centers Hunter Dickinson (15.9 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 1.5 steals) and Flory Bidunga (6.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.2 blocks). They are a rare CBB duo averaging over a block per game each and are a big reason why teams shoot 42.8% from two-point range (10th-best nationally) against Kansas.

Cincinnati got 11 points on 4-4 shooting from Aziz Bandaogo on Monday, a score line they were 6-0 with before the Baylor blowout. I'd be shocked if he did that against this frontcourt. UC has to hit close to 10 threes in this game to have a chance, and that's extremely hard to do against Kansas (29.3% three-point mark allowed, 38th nationally). Someone (preferably someone's plural) has to complement Dan Skillings Jr. after his red-hot scoring start in conference.

The time is now—fall to 0-4 at the start of Big 12 play and you are firmly fighting for your NCAA Tournament life over the next few weeks. Kansas is a black hole on defense that swallows motion offenses and allows just 11.4 assists per game (68th nationally). Dillon Mitchell has to wash away a rare bad game against Baylor, and the Bearcats' backcourt has to show up and create some offense out of nothing in isolation.

Cincinnati will get blown off the floor like Kansas's last two opponents if they don't show up with their best offensive showing in weeks.

Defensive Storyline: Force Threes, Don't Foul

Kansas is the 24th most efficient offense on KenPom due to its balance and depth. Everything starts with Dickinson and branches off from there with his continued strong inside scoring this season (57.3% from two-point range on 10.4 shots per game).

Denying him the ball won't be easy, but it's the goal against a team ranked 86th in two-point shooting to a 126th-best mark from outside (34.8%) with just 20.9 atttempts per game (271st). Time to get that latter number UP! UC also can't foul at a high rate, with Kansas taking just 13.2 free throws per game and hitting 75.1% of those (75th).

Consistent trips to the foul stripe will just make a hyper-efficient offense that much better.

The only path to matching Kansas's efficiency in this game is forcing as many outside shots as possible, with a UC defense allowing just 28.6% from deep (24th nationally). Now, this goes against UC's profile this season as a team giving up just 18 three-point attempts per game (third-fewest nationally), but the Big 12 forces chameleon tendencies game to game.

Kansas is too efficient, and two big down low with three 6-7 or taller players in the heavy rotation to let them spam shots around the rim. Zeke Mayo (14.6 points, 38.3% from deep on a team-high 5.8 tries per game) is the one guy you don't want shooting threes—but it's a pick-your-poison matchup—something will get exposed. Balancing that exposure over 40 minutes represents Cincinnati's toughest task yet this season.

Prediction: 71-63 Jayhawks

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