Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: West Virginia Mountaineers

UC is on a two-game win streak in this series.

Cincinnati Bearcats guard Dan Skillings Jr. (0) drives on West Virginia Mountaineers guard Kobe Johnson (2) in the first half of the Big 12 Conference tournament between Cincinnati Bearcats and West Virginia Mountaineers at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo., on Tuesday, March 12, 2024. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

CINCINNATI — If the Bearcats (12-8, 2-7) want to pull off a miracle return to at-large NCAA Tournament status, they have to beat West Virginia (13-7, 4-5) on Sunday afternoon.

The Bearcats are on a three-game losing streak and firmly off the bubble entering the 2 p.m. ET tip on ESPN+. Cincinnati enters this game ranked 49th in the NET and 57th on KenPom, while West Virginia is 44th in the NET and 48th on KenPom. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Cincinnati a 68.6% chance to get the win after the Bearcats beat WVU in back-to-back games last March.

UC is 11-8 against WVU since the 1949-50 season. It's a Quad 2 game for Cincinnati and they can't lose any more non-Quad 1 games the rest of the season.

Offensive Storyline: Dan Skillings Jr. M.I.A

"It's due now for multiple guys to bust out at the same time offensively." 

From Wes Miller's mouth to God's ears. The Bearcats coach is confident guys like Skillings will turn things around amidst this brutal first nine games in conference play. The forward's been a shell of his normal self across three years at UC.

Cincinnati needs him to get much sounder on defense and find some kind of offensive rhythm—Skillings is averaging 7.4 points on a disgusting 33.3% effective field goal rate over the past five games. Add in just 2.4 rebounds per game in that stretch and it's hard to see how he's impacting winning ways at all.

Now, things could flip quickly and Sunday brings in an opponent he thrived against to end last season (15 points, 4.5 rebounds, and three assists per game in the final two WVU matchups). It has to start on defense. Skillings has completely fallen off a cliff there over the last few weeks. He's not sound in his switches, leaves his feet far too often, and continues to mash into opposing screens instead of sliding around. 

He holds a career-worst 109.4 defensive rating in conference play (102.5 last season).

"Dan Skillings and Jizzle James are in positions on this team that they've never been in on any team before," Miller said on Thursday. "And at times, you can see that they are in the right position. They're prepared for that position, and they'reready to be elite players in this league. And then at times, you can see that they're learning in that process. 

"I have so much faith in both of them and others, because they belong. They belong not just, in this league or on this team, but they belong in the positions they're in, where they're relied upon, and they're expected to perform. And there's a lot of basketball left, and I believe both of them are going to perform at a high level. And like anything. Sometimes, some of the small failures are what they need to take the next step as players."

The James distinction makes sense by Miller, but Skillings is far from a foreigner to the role he has on this team. He started every game after Feb. 13 last season, played more minutes per game overall on the season than this campaign, and held nearly the exact same usage rate (25.8% last season, 25.4% this season).

He has to play better for Cincinnati to turn this Titanic around. It won't be easy to get that offense sparked against a West Virginia team ranked 22nd in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Aim Small, Miss Small

Only one healthy West Virginia player is averaging double scoring figures this season and he just so happens to lead the conference in scoring. Electric guard Javon Small (19.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, five assists) is the heavy offensive hub for WVU.

Cincinnati is familiar with him from his time with East Carolina in the AAC and he's only gotten better in the past two years. He's the heart of a WVU offense that chucks up threes at a blistering rate (27.1 per game, 49th nationally) but hits just 32.7% of the time (249th). UC is going to have big issues if their recent poor three-point defense continues.

It's a clear something's gotta give matchup, with UC allowing 18.8 attempts per game (15th nationally) and 5.8 makes (ninth). Small will methodically move the offense, swing for outside shots, and drag the game into the mud (WVU ranks 328th in adjusted tempo). Cincinnati cannot get foul-happy in this game and likely needs to keep a strong free-throw shooting team under 15 attempts (WVU shoots 74.7% at the line, 84th).

Down low, forward Armani Hansberry (9.6 points, 5.6 rebounds) leads the team in two-point shooting (53.7%) and is the only real interior threat at 6-8. WVU is a terrible rebounding team (-4 rebounding differential, 47.7% rebound rate, 279th), but Cincinnati's been beaten on the glass in seven consecutive games.

They should win this game if they can get back to attacking the glass like we are so used to seeing from Cincinnati hoops. That's a big if. WVU has a clear offensive killer on their side, something no one on UC has proven to be.

Prediction: 65-64 West Virginia

Season Prediction Record: 16-4

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