Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: Xavier Musketeers

The Bearcats have not won this game all decade.

Xavier Musketeers guard Quincy Olivari (8) rises for a 3-point basket in the second half of the 91st Crosstown Shootout basketball game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Xavier Musketeers, Saturday, Dec. 9, 2023, at Cintas Center in Cincinnati. The Xavier Musketeers won, 84-79. / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

CINCINNATI — A rivalry test to see where the roster stands. 

Cincinnati takes on Xavier this Saturday at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+ in the 92nd edition of the Crosstown Shootout (UC leads the series 51-40). The Musketeers are UC's toughest opponent yet and a team Wes Miller's never beaten in his time at Cincinnati.

Zooming out further, Xavier has won eight of the past 10 outings in a rather dominant showing throughout much of this decade and beyond, but Cincinnati hasn't been set up this well to win it in a long time. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has the Bearcats winning this rendition 81.8% of the time. 

The Bearcats are ranked 18th on KenPom as of this writing, while Xavier is 61st.

"It's one of the best rivalries in college sports," Miller said this week. "This is a sports town—like I've thought that before I came here. Now, I feel like a Cincinnatian. And this is one of the best sports towns in the United States. And college basketball is a big part of that. And this game's a big part of that. So, that's, that's become more clear. You think that from a distance, but it's been more clear living here."

Cincinnati is basically at full strength for this game, besides Tyler McKinley injured on the sideline, with a sold-out crowd ready to back them.

Offensive Storyline: Hit Your Triples

Cincinnati will have to get a boost from its outside shot against one of the best two-point defenses in the nation. That's a good task to put in front of a team shooting 39.3% from outside (24th nationally). Players like Simas Lukošius, Jizzle James, and Tyler Betsey hitting close to 10 threes as a team will be a big winning gauge for Cincinnati.

Xavier is the best team Cincinnati's faced on both ends of the court and defensively brings much more length to the table than most of its opponents so far. They are a pesky man-to-man defense that hounds defenders inside the arc (44.9% two-point FG% allowed, 48th) and is forcing 8.5 steals per game (75th).

Sean Miller won't be blind to UC's shooting strength. Xavier will continue trying to deny outside shots like it has done well over much of the season (19.2 three-point attempts allowed per game, 32nd)

They are an excellent shooting team as well (40.1% from outside, 18th), shaping this up to be a shotmaking battle as both sides try to unlock their best shooters. I imagine 6-7 springy forward Dailyn Swain (8.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.9 steals, 62.5% shooting) will be on Lukošius much of the night trying to deny him the ball.

Cincinnati has to break through his ball pressure and consistent cuts/action off the ball from Dan Skillings Jr. could be a salve there. The Bearcats' top all-around player got his feet wet against Howard and practiced much of this week to ramp up.

His first good game against Xavier (two points, six rebounds in 23 minutes last year, no points, two rebounds in six minutes two years ago) could be the difference in glory or pain.

Defensive Storyline: Strangle High-Low Action

The Musketeers have a clear two-headed offensive snake Cincinnati has to cut off. Nearly half the team's point diet comes from bruising 6-9 forward Zach Freemantle (16.8 points, 7.8 rebounds) and wiry, sharpshooting guard Ryan Conwell (16.4 points, 2.5 assists).

Those two largely get set up by veteran lead guard Dayvion McKnight (11.1 points, 4.3 assists) in a variety of ways in the halfcourt or transition. We should see a paced-up afternoon for Cincinnati's defense against the 122nd-ranked team nationally in adjusted tempo.

Dealing with Xavier's on-ball actions will not be easy needing a hounding defensive performance to slow it down. The Musketeers have found plenty of success with this system, powering Freemantle to an impressive 27 Player Efficiency Rating (sixth best in Big East) and Conwell to a 19.6 PER (17th in Big East).

One thing Cincinnati won't have to worry about is Trey Green's outside shooting (37.5% mark from deep). The guard is taking a leave of absence from the team, plucking one rotation piece away from Xavier. Eight players have appeared in every game for the Musketeers this season.

It all starts with slowing down those two guards and Freemantle. Tight, sound, on-ball defense will drive the winner home in this game, despite both offenses ranking among the top 80 nationally in scoring average.

Toss out the records, toss out the predictions, This game's been decided by single-digit deficits in four of the past five meetings. Cincinnati has to execute in crunch time and stick together through the inevitable ups and downs in this specialstandalone game.

"It all comes down to just sticking together, being by each other's side, pushing each other up, through highs or lows," UC forward Dillon Mitchell said about powering through close-game moments. "There's gonna be lows in every game, but being next to each other, continue to motivate each other, even the guys on the bench, I think just being together and pushing through, remembering the little details, giving every effort on every possession, taking it one possession at a time. 

"I think it's just the standard, the little details, that's gonna help us win games. It'll be little things that we think didn't matter at that point of the game. But every little detail matters, every little possession matters. Like I think all those things, just staying together, I think we'll be fine if we do those things for 40 minutes."

Prediction: 81-77 Bearcats 

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