Preview Paw Prints: East Carolina Game Two

Cincinnati needs some help in its pursuit of a top-three AAC seed.

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats (17-9, 8-5) fire up a heavy stretch of road games this week during a trip to face East Carolina (3-8, 12-12).

Cincinnati whooped them 83-55 earlier this season and cannot afford an upset as it tries to keep pace with the AAC's top-three teams.

East Carolina is ranked 213th on KenPom and sports the third-worst AAC record. Cincinnati slots in at No. 62 on KenPom, and ESPN's Matchup Predictor expects the Bearcats to win 82.2% of the time.

Time to dive into some key storylines as UC tries to end its AAC run against ECU 20-2 against the Pirates.

AAC's Three Seed: Down, Not Out

© Albert Cesare / USA TODAY NETWORK

Cincinnati bounced back from last week's rough road loss to Tulane with a home win over South Florida this past weekend. That kept them in the running for a top-three seed in the AAC Tournament.

UC is two games back of Memphis and Tulane for the 2/3 seeds, with one game against Memphis left.

"You feel like you're playing your best basketball you've played all year the last couple of weeks, and within a matter of minutes Wednesday night or Tuesday night, Rob Phinisee, who has really given us something, getting back into the swing and Vik (Lakhin) goes down," Miller said about the team's situation. "And that's tough on the team—you can say whatever you want, our team feels it—and that's frustrating and tough. But we talk about this a lot as a group. It's not about what happens—it's about how we respond to what happens."

The Bearcats responded with a dominant second half against USF after trailing by 4 points heading into the locker room.

Capturing that three-spot is realistically the only path to the NCAA Tournament for Cincinnati. Four seed or worse, and you have to play Houston before the tournament final. On top of that challenge, they'd likely half to face at least one of Tulane/Memphis, unless the 7/10 or 6/11 game-winner takes those teams out.

UC's afforded itself a little breathing room from having to play four games (1.5 games up on UCF), but that only sticks around if they beat the Knights on the road this coming weekend. The Bearcats have to find some road consistency, or the season will truly go on life support.

Miller's team is 3-4 on the road this season and 13-3 at home. Three of the final five games are away from Fifth Third Arena.

David Dimes

© Albert Cesare / USA TODAY NETWORK

David DeJulius deserves another shout out after his continued stellar passing production this season. DeJulius is now up to an astounding 6.9 assists per game in conference play and 5 per game this season (fifth in AAC).

He's notched an astounding 11 consecutive games with at least 5-plus assists, including 9 dimes in three of the past five games. On Saturday, he toasted USF's halfcourt sets (10 points, 9 assists, 2 turnovers).

"That's what three of the last five games he's had nine or more assists?" Miller said about his lead guard. "I'm glad you guys are talking about it. You should be."

DeJulius is doing all of this while adding just 0.2 turnovers per game compared to last season. He's posting a career-high in offensive rating (117.2, 11 points higher than 2021-22) and is top-15 among AAC players in turnover rate (12.1%).

It's an assist volume Miller never tallied at Noth Carolina.

"Heck no," Miller said about ever notching nine assists while at UNC, "And I got to throw the ball to Tyler Hansbrough and still never had nine assists in a game."

😂😂😂 never gave myself a chance at 9 assists https://t.co/sjzFwmZOFr

— Tyler Hansbrough (@THANS50) February 12, 2023

There's no Hansbrough on this roster, but DDJ is still making lemonade out of lemons.

He had a lot to do with Ody Oguama's perfect 9-of-9 night from the field against USF. DeJulius's play down the stretch will have a big say in UC's NCAA Tournament hopes.

Aim Small, Miss Small

© Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

East Carolina has had to navigate the past month without its top scorer, who could return against Cincinnati. Guard Javon Small (15.8 Pts, 4.8 Reb, 5.6 Ast) has missed the past six games with an undisclosed injury as the Pirates struggled to a 2-4 record.

They could really use his impact against Cincinnati, where he dropped 23 points, and 5 assists a month ago. 

Coach Schwartz comments on how the injured Javon Small is doing and recovering. pic.twitter.com/W3hijMNH4w

— 94.3 THE GAME (@943TheGame) February 10, 2023

If Small can't go, RJ Felton should continue to pick up the slack. The guard is averaging 17.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2 assists in Small's absence. He's been the main connector to Brandon Johnson (13.5 Pts, 8.5 Reb, 2 Ast).

The forward got clamped against Cincinnati (1-of-5 FGs, season-low 2 points) last month. It will likely be a heavy mix of Oguama and Kalu Ezikpe again on Wednesday. 

Will Johnson have a lot more success without Lakhin in his way?

That's the top question heading into a game that Cincinnati should handle throughout. Small and Lakhin's health are the top things to monitor as tip-off nears closer. 

Individual pops are the only path I see to an ECU upset. They don't do anything really well as a team, and their lone strengths are rebounding and getting to the free-throw line.

Cincinnati and East Carolina clash at 7 P.M. ET on ESPN+.

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