Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Arizona State Sun Devils

The third time these programs have squared off.

Oct 12, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby (2) warms up before the game against the UCF Knights at FBC Mortgage Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-Imagn Images / Mike Watters-Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats (4-2) have a massive opportunity to inject more fire into this football season across a home matchup against Arizona State on Saturday (5-1).

Big news dropped from Sun Devils head coach Kenny Dillingham on Wednesday that they are missing dynamic quarterback Sam Leavitt in this game. It's prompted the betting spread to balloon Cincinnati's way (6.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks as of this writing).

This marks the third all-time meeting between the schools (UC won at ASU in 1954 and 1976). The Bearcats enter this game 61.3% Matchup Predictor favorites on ESPN.

"You have to do all the fundamentals," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said about the matchup Fundamental things that you have to do no matter what defense you play. If it's a third down or four down or whatever it may be, your guys have to execute. I think that's one of the things we did so much better in this game when you think about missed assignments. We cut those things by 30 in their missed assignments on defense, and it was a much better defensive game for us compared to the Texas Tech game. And that's what it's going to come down to. It's the least amount of mistakes and being where you're supposed to be.”

Let's get into Keys to the Game for Cincinnati's 98th Homecoming contest.

Defensive Key To The Game: Scuttle Skattebo

Amidst Leavitt's injury, ASU's only real path to victory here is controlling the clock and hammering UC on the ground with one of the nation's best running backs. Cam Skattebo motors downhill like a runaway freight train and is arguably the most physical back Cincinnati's faced in the Satterfield era.

Skattebo is fifth nationally in rushing (128.8 yards per game, 8 touchdowns total). An issue Cincinnati has weathered lately with him slotting in as the third straight opposing back ranked top 10 nationally in rushing. All in all, ASU ranks 16th nationally in total rushing attempts (260), 15th nationally in EPA/rush, and rushing success rate. 

It's a daunting tackling matchup for UC's mismatched unit, which is bleeding consistent strong runs, but not giving up those big explosive carries (88th in defensive rush success rate allowed, 21st in EPA/rush allowed). They missed 17 tackles against Texas Tech, but just nine against UCF. Single digits again on that front should lead to a win.

"Little bit of a different style runner," Satterfield said about the 5-11, 215-pound Skattebo. "He plays with great acceleration and tenacity. Whereas, RJ [Harvey] can make you miss and even [Tahj] Brooks at Texas Tech, can make you miss with a stick. I think this one he's going to run through making the rounds after the Utah game, when he had the 50-yard run, just an inside zone play, but broke about four tackles, and kept his balance. He has great contact balance, and then just went and scored a touchdown. It was a huge play in the game. They took the lead there at the end of the third quarter. 

"He's a guy where you're going to have to get a lot of hats to the ball. First guy may not bring him down, but then the next guy has to be able to get there to bring him down. I do think playing these other backs has really helped that and I think we learned a lot at the Texas Tech game that helped us in the Central Florida game, and hopefully it carries.”

Unless ASU gets down by multiple scores early, I'd be shocked to see them throw it 30-plus times. New QB Jeff Sims has a lot of experience but is a career 57.6% passer on 682 attempts with a 31-29 TD-INT ratio and ASU threw it just 25.3 times with Leavitt starting.

The Sun Devils path to victory is limited to dominating one phase.

Offensive Key To The Game: A Slicing Sorsby

Don't expect UC's rushing attack to get going after weeks of rough success. Cincinnati hasn't run for over four yards per carry in a conference game this season, but Brendan Sorsby's precision and the fresh wide receiver depth this year has kept wins flowing.

Sorsby likely has to play better than last week, where he had his worst UC performance (68.6 ESPN QBR, only above Miami (OH) outing at 54.8 QBR). I have it a tick below Miami due to the pair of interceptions faulted to Sorsby. His accuracy needs to be a little sharper this week to get back to top-15 play nationally.

"You can't press too much," Satterfield said about a game projected to have few possessions for each side. "One of the things I think is a critical stat of this coming game and obviously every week, is the turnover margin. They've been a little bit better than us in the turnover game. I think they're plus five on the season so far, and in these close games they've been playing, and that gives them the edge. We have to be able to take care of the ball and not press too much to try to fit balls into tight windows. Take what they give us, and hopefully, we're able to hit some big plays and go down and get some touchdowns. I think there's certainly going to be some opportunities out there. We have to be able to make the most of those.”

The Sun Devils have six interceptions this season (39th nationally), but all in all, they've been better against the run (11th in EPA/rush, 35th in success rate) than the pass (40th in EPA/dropback, 71st in dropback success rate). 

They are smack in the middle nationally allowing 23 points per game (64th).

Sorsby's been over 35 attempts in the past two games, expect that again, as Cincinnati can attack the edges of the ASU defense and turn quick throws into an extension of the run game. Staying on schedule is imperative as evidenced by the EPA/success rate numbers from ASU.

Palatable late-down situations have been a strong way to attack the Sun Devils all season (84th in 3rd/4th down success rate). If Cincinnati can run the ball around four yards per tote and get an accurate game out of Sorsby, it should be more than enough to win in front of a Homecoming crowd.

“They're well-coached and those guys are out there playing hard," Sorsby said about the Sun Devils' defense. "They're 5-1, like you said, so they're finding ways to win games. So obviously they're really talented, and we just have to find a way to put points on the board and give ourselves a chance at the end of the day to win the game.”

Prediction: 30-20 Bearcats

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