Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Colorado Buffaloes

UC is 0-1 all-time against Colorado.

Cincinnati Bearcats defensive back Kalen Carroll (21) is tackled by Arizona State Sun Devils defensive back Xavion Alford (2) at the 1-yard-line in the second quarter of the College Football game at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — A late-night affair in Boulder.

Cincinnati has played its way into Big 12 title contention midway through the 2024 season, but there is still plenty of work to be done, starting as a 5.5-point betting underdog at Colorado. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives Cincinnati a 31.9% chance to win.

The Bearcats are 0-1 all-time against CU with that lone loss coming in 1977. A win would make Cincinnati bowl eligible for the sixth time in the last seven seasons, and leave them with one loss needed by Texas Tech to control their path to a Big 12 Championship berth.

“Game number eight, playing for a Big 12 Championship, two teams with the same record. There's a lot on the line and that's what we talk about," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said on Tuesday. "All the other stuff is what everybody else talks about. For us, it's about our preparation and putting together a great game plan. Going against their offense, their defense, their kicking game, and then going out and working on that plan this week and having great confidence in that plan when we go into the game. All that other stuff is for fans and the media. For us, it's about the ball.”

The conference's second-best scoring offense welcomes in the Big 12's best scoring defense so far. Something has to give at the feet of the Rocky Mountains.

Defensive Key To The Game: Sack Sanders

It's no secret how Colorado likes to move the football this season. Shedeur Sanders has been one of the most effective quarterbacks in the country and is having his highest-graded PFF season since coming into the sport (90.9 overall).

He looks the part of a projected No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft and the stats match: Seventh nationally as a team in passing yards per game (324.0), while Sanders is second nationally in completions per game (27.86), fourth in completion percentage (72.2%), fifth in passing yards (2,268), and passing touchdowns (19). It's resulted in the 30th-best passing offense by EPA, and 39th by success rate.

Expect him to have the ball a bunch and feed star wide receiver and cornerback Travis Hunter along the way, plus, a heavy diet for his other talented receivers. Cincinnati has to find a succinct, efficient pass-rush plan to stymie the inevitable downfield plays.

“He gets outside, and all he's doing is buying time," Satterfield said about Sanders, who has a long 2.88 second time to throw this season. "He's buying time for those guys to either go deep or come across, and then he has the athleticism and accuracy to be able to put it on them. We have to stay in coverage. I think sometimes you have a tendency to think ‘Oh, man, the quarterback is out. Let me come out of coverage’. He'll [Sanders] make you pay, so you better stay in coverage and see what's going to happen. But he's looking up the field to try to make the big plays, and he's had a bunch of them outside the pocket.”

Sanders moves away from pressure for the same reason every other quarterback does: It's way easier to create big plays. His splits are stark when throwing under pressure versus being kept clean (83.2 NFL passer rating under pressure, 119.2 rating when kept clean).

Cincinnati will get 40 points hung on them if they can't get to Sanders consistently. Enter a Colorado offensive line that has seen their QB get sacked 25 times this season (t-129th nationally). He was sacked 5 and 4 times in the Buffs' two losses this season. Getting at least four sacks on Saturday is crucial to a win (UC is 33rd nationally with 17 sacks this season).

Any opportunity to force more runs from a rough CU rushing attack is a winning formula (2.7 yards per carry this season, 60th or worse in rushing EPA/success rate).

Offensive Key To The Game: Balanced Red-Zone Execution

Cincinnati should have a special teams advantage in this game, which means continued strength in the field position battle. That's a major factor in a game that Cincinnati likely wants to dominate time of possession to keep Sanders and that offense on the sideline.

Can Cincinnati bust through the Buffs' red-zone brick wall? It's the biggest roadblock to victory for Cincinnati.

Colorado has a stout defense, especially in the red zone (eighth in score rate, 35th in TD rate), and allows just 21.9 PPG overall (47th nationally). It's a rough matchup for a Cincinnati offense that's much better this season, but still in the doldrums of national red-zone scoring (107th in score rate).

A fully healthy offensive line from UC gets a hornet's nest thrown at them here as Colorado's fully turned around a defense that leads the Big 12 in sacks (21) and TFLs (49). Getting at least 150-200 rushing yards against an average ground defense (57th in rush success rate allowed, 52nd in EPA) would go a long way in keeping the offense balanced and some pressure (literally and figuratively) off Brendan Sorsby.

"It will be a great environment, and you need to drown everything out and really focus on exactly what those 11 guys are doing on that side of the ball before you snap it and have a plan," Satterfield said about Sorsby the road atmosphere. "You have to know where you are going with the ball, and I think he does a great job with that. I believe that our guys do play with poise. We're going to have to play disciplined football, Colorado has done a good job of winning the turnover margin and we need to win the turnover margin. 

"That's going to be critical and that comes down to quarterback play a lot of times, and Brendan [Sorsby] has played in big games before and has come through. I have a lot of confidence in him, but I do believe he is surrounded by a bunch of really good players that have a lot of good confidence as well. So, I think when you put all that together, it gives us a great chance to win the game.” 

Prediction: 31-30 Buffaloes

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