Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys to The Game: Houston Cougars

The Bearcats are looking for consecutive wins over the Cougars.

Cincinnati Bearcats cornerback Jordan Young (1) tackled Houston Cougars wide receiver Samuel Brown (4) in the fourth quarter of the NCAA football game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Houston Cougars TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas, on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023. / Albert Cesare / USA TODAY NETWORK

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats (2-1) return home this weekend for their opening Big 12 matchup of the season against Houston (1-2). This was Cincinnati's lone conference win last season and they are favored to get it done again amidst a home atmosphere.

Houston has leaned on its defense this month and enters as a 3.5-point underdog after opening at 5.5 points. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has Cincinnati marked as a 62% favorite to win the game and they are ranked 63rd in Bill Connelly's SP+ to Houston's No. 78 mark.

Houston owns a 15-14 all-time edge in the series, but Cincinnati is 8-6 against the Cougars at Nippert Stadium.

"They play hard, they're coached well, they're where they're supposed to be, and he's done an outstanding job," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said about Willie Fritz's group. "His team defensively is one of the better defenses in the country, top 15 in a lot of categories. For the first year, Shiel [Wood] has done a great job with their defense. Offensively, they are not as good statistically, but they can run the football. They got a lot of speed outside at wide receiver and their quarterback has played a lot of ball. He's a really big guy, we know he can run, and he's got a big-time arm as well. 

"Their return game really stands out as well. I look at their punt returner, kick returner and they have a really good return game in the special team. It is a great challenge this week against Houston for the Big 12 opener and we are excited about it. We need to feel the energy at Nippert and have everybody out there cheering us on. This is a big-time game for the Big 12.”

Let's roll into keys to victory on both sides of the ball.

Offensive Key To The Game: Win The Margins

Houston ranks 75th in SP+ on defense, but that's in large part due to weighting from last season's results. They've been a top-30 defense through three games any way you slice it, highlighted by a 16-point showing out of Oklahoma's offense.

According to CFB Graphs, Houston ranks 26th nationally in defensive EPA allowed and is stronger against the pass (11th in EPA allowed), than the run (81st in EPA allowed). Corey Kiner ran for 129 yards in this matchup last year and he should eclipse 100 yards again if he gets 20-plus carries. 

"I think that's when he's his best when he gets those carries up towards the 20-carry mark," Satterfield said about Kiner. "Defense starting to get worn down a little bit, and that's when it's go time for him. He's just a very, very solid running back. He's done a great job for our offense. Him being able to run the football certainly should help and open up more passing lanes. I think it has in the first three weeks. We'll continue to ride Corey, he's a stud.”

Kiner leads all Power Four rushers in missed tackles forced and he will likely drive the win if Cincinnati comes out victorious Saturday. Should Cincinnati stay patient and even accept some early slogging on the ground it could pay off in the end. 

Houston is a little weaker on later downs this season (32nd nationally) than on early downs, while Cincinnati is converting on late downs at a 51.5% rate (18th nationally). They don't give up big plays through the air (four of 20-plus yards, 16th nationally) and allow just a 30.5% dropback success rate (seventh nationally), Setting this up to be the toughest test of Brendan Sorsby's UC career through the air.

Still, Cincinnati has enough playmakers to be adequate passing and stay on time as long as Sorsby can continue staying turnover-free.

Some more scrambles with his legs, aggressiveness on fourth down, and a steady dose of Kiner should lead to a victory for Cincinnati.

Defensive Key To The Game: Play The Long Path

Cincinnati can pair defense and special teams as weapons in this game. They got a turnover out of the forgotten phase last week and hold a massive advantage on special teams entering this game (UC 60th in ST SP+, Houston 131st).

I have a hard time seeing the Cougars reaching 20 points if they have to work long drives for most of the game and Cincinnati can force that with the leg of Mason Fletcher and how well they are covering punts recently.

Defensively, just don't give up double-digit big plays and things will be really hard for QB Donovan Smith (40.5 ESPN QBR, 90th nationally) and his crew. It shouldn't be hard to make Houston a one-dimensional passing team in this game (3.23 yards per carry this season, 117th in EPA/rush).

"This week will be a bigger challenge," Satterfield said about Houston. "I think this team is going to try to run the football. Having to stop the quarterback runs is a different animal as well. With the speed that they have at running back and the size and speed they have at quarterback, this will be a better, bigger challenge. Hopefully, we'll continue to get better at that as we play this week.”

Smith definitely runs around a lot...into sacks. Houston has given up a whopping 11 through three games and this is where Cincinnati can pin its ears back with Eric Phillips (t-fifth among Power Four players in pressures, 14) and more to go get Smith and completely kill this attack.

As long as they don't give up a bevy of big plays to bail out Houston, UC should be able to pair consecutive games allowing less than 20 points.

Prediction: 23-17 Bearcats 

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