Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Iowa State Cyclones

The second meeting ever between the two schools.

Iowa State Cyclones linebacker Gerry Vaughn (32) tackles Cincinnati Bearcats running back Myles Montgomery (26) on a carry in the first quarter during a college football game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Cincinnati Bearcats Saturday, Oct. 14, 2023, at Nippert Stadium win Cincinnati. / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats are playing a third road night game in conference action on Saturday as the Iowa State Cyclones await. Cincinnati is a betting underdog, needing just one win for bowl eligibility this season.

The Bearcats enter this game ranked 53rd nationally in Bill Connelly's SP+ metric, while Iowa State is 21st. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives the Bearcats a 30.1% chance to win.

ISU won this matchup at Nippert Stadium 30-10 last season, and returning the favor would be a stellar way to notch bowl status.

"We all know that, last week was West Virginia, and this week it's Iowa State," Scott Satterfield said about the chance to make a bowl. "We know we have to go on the road the next couple weeks, and we have one more home game. So, a lot of tough teams ahead. We know that you take it one game at a time. You try to figure out a way to where we can just try to go win this game. It's there, it's dangling. It's the elephant in the room right there. You would love to be able to already have that as you are playing these games, because it kind of frees you up, but still, you go play these games one at a time, and you just have to do your best against Iowa State. That's all we can think about. Then hopefully the results are good enough to make that happen.” 

Time for keys to victory on both sides of the ball as Cincinnati faces the Cyclones for the second time ever.

Offensive Key To The Game: Bleed Clock, Control The Crowd

Cincinnati's offense has done a decent job in its road night games this season, but Brendan Sorsby, Corey Kiner, and the rest of the Bearcats' offensive leaders must be extra sharp this week.

ISU is as balanced and disciplined as any team in the Big 12 (second in the conference in turnover margin). They are not going to beat themselves and rarely waste possessions consistently. Owning the clock and leaning on the road run game is imperative. ISU has one of the best secondaries in the country, and it's likely got bulging wide eyes in anticipation of Sorsby's shaky play recently.

The Cyclones rank 12th nationally in PFF coverage grade, 11th in dropback EPA allowed, and 68th in dropback success rate allowed. Rock solid across the board in a tricky 3-3-5 coverage system. It's the fifth-best pass defense in the country by yards per attempt (5.3).

"Hopefully we can get the run game going," Satterfield said about ISU's defense. "That helps you out tremendously, if you can get that going to try to open up some of the pass games, but Iowa State’s done an outstanding job in pass defense. They got some real experience in the back end. Their three safeties have played a ton of football. Their corners are good. They got a corner that is 6-4 that can run long. Number five is a good player who we played against last year. Those five guys in the back end are outstanding pass defenders.”

ISU is much shakier against the run (41st in rushing EPA allowed, 111th in success rate allowed). That latter number is massive and should be a way for Cincinnati to consistently grind out 4-6 yard carries and get to manageable late-down situations (ISU's defense is 100th nationally in late-down success rate).

They also give up red-zone TDs at a high rate (68.42%, 108th nationally). Points will be available in that area...if UC can get there.

Defensive Key To The Game: Capitalize On field Position

These two units match up very well and shape up to be one of the most fun battles on opposite sides of the ball all season among Cincinnati opponents. 

UC has turned into a very respectable defense, ranking 19th in rushing EPA allowed, and 46th in dropback EPA to ISU's 28th and 27th-best marks on offense. The biggest difference has been the starting field position for the two units. Cincinnati ranks fifth-best nationally after dropping from first following the West Virginia loss, while ISU is 91st among offenses in starting field position.

Both special teams units have been shaky this season, but the Cyclones are worse, ranking 86th in PFF grading to Cincinnati's 53rd-best mark. Sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht has avoided a lot of major mistakes this season, but he can be shaken if Cincinnati brings heat (65.8 PFF grade when blitzed, 78.2 when not blitzed).

Let him get comfortable in the pocket, and UC is in big trouble facing an offense just as willing to control the clock (UC is 12th nationally in time of possession, and ISU is 21st).

“Just so much poise and confidence in their offense and an understanding what he needs to do," Satterfield said about Becht. "They’ll run the football, they like to run the football, and they're good at it, and they'll utilize their tight ends in a lot of different ways. They'll go under center, they'll go shotgun. He’s just got a great knack for that. I'll tell you what he does, throws a great, catchable football, and he's very accurate. When they need a first down, maybe you cover everybody, well, he's going to go scramble. 

"Just being very annoying to the defense because he goes and gets two or three yards past the sticks and gets a first down. I just think he's a winner. I think a great game for that was a Central Florida game. Central Florida was up on those guys and gave the ball back to him late in the game, and he took him, I don't know, 80 yards down the field, and scored a touchdown and won a game. He showed great poise. He’s certainly a player that is hard to contain because he can do both and just the way he has command of their offense."

Balance has been the right business for Iowa State in one of its best seasons under head coach Matt Campbell.

Prediction: 30-24 Cyclones

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