Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Kansas State Wildcats

UC is 4-2 in this series.

Cincinnati Bearcats' quarterback Brendan Sorsby (2) breaks a tackle from Iowa State Cyclones defensive line Zaimir Hawk (53) and runs for a firstdown during the third quarter in the week-12 NCAA football at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in Ames, Iowa. / Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — Another week, another brutal scheduling spot for the Bearcats in their sixth road night game in Big 12 play since joining the conference last year. Kansas State awaits in Manhatten, trying to end a two-game losing streak, all while the Bearcats try to snap their three-game skid.

Cincinnati enters this game as a nine-point betting underdog and holds a 28.1% chance to pull the upset and punch a 2024 bowl ticket on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. The Wildcats are ranked 18th in Bill Connelly's SP+ metric, with Cincinnati'ssitting at 57th.

“Sunday, it was a little bit somber. Everybody's disappointed. Yesterday was a great bounce back from our guys. We met with the guys on Monday, our leadership group, and they were fired up, hungry to get back out on the field this week," UC head coach Satterfield said about the team's response to a 34-17 loss at Iowa State. "We have another opportunity andthat's what you want. As I told them, if we're 10-0, 5-0, 0-10, doesn't matter this week. None of that matters. It's how you come to work every day, how you prepare this week. How much enthusiasm are you going to have the day, when we go out there and practice and I think yesterday, any indication, they'll be ready to go.”

Cincinnati looks to extend its 4-2 record in this series. It's the first matchup since 1996.

Offensive Key To The Game: Hit The Layups, Create Separation

Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby and his receiver corps can wash away all the inconsistencies of the past month on Saturday. Kansas State has a solid defense overall, ranking 40th nationally in points allowed per game (21.9), with much of that strength powered against ground attacks.

According to College Football Insiders, KSU is 25th nationally in EPA/rush allowed, second nationally in rushing success rate allowed, and allows just 3.1 yards per carry. It's going to be much harder to run the ball this week. I'm very skeptical that KSU's front will let Sorsby rush for another 100-yard day to mitigate bad passing.

The duel-threat player needs to be sharper with his accuracy, but above all, he needs some help and quick wins from his receivers. KSU has been burnt that way, sporting PFF's 37th-worst coverage unit nationally, one that's allowing a 63.6% completion rate (106th nationally).

"I think it's who we're playing," Satterfield said this week about receivers struggling to get open. "I think it's how their structure, their defense has been, where they're putting their safeties. And you know, certainly early in the season, we had a lot more opportunities, I felt like, but as the season's going on, it's not as much. I think probably the last best game we had throwing was Texas Tech. And I also think Texas Tech's weakness is their pass defense, so I think we have to give credit to who we're playing and how their structure is and how they play.

"How good are they? And Colorado, to me, they had a really good man-to-man scheme, and so we had a hard time getting open, therefore we didn't. Our completion percentage was not very high. This past weekend, these guys dropped a bunch of guys into coverage trying to deter you from throwing the football. So, we took advantage of the run game. So, I mean it's a little bit of both. I think sometimes it’s having problems getting open, but other times, I think, some of the teams we're playing structure to stop some of that.” 

KSU's done a nice job limiting big passing plays (36th in EPA/dropback allowed), but they can be peppered with completions and are a mediocre red-zone defense (52nd nationally in RZ TD rate allowed). 

Passing game execution, namely by the receivers finding more much-needed space for Sorsby, is crucial on Saturday.

Defensive Key To The Game: Re-Weaponize Field Position

The field-position strength for much of the season has turned into a weakness over the past three losses. UC's averaging a drive start at its 20-yard line in this losing stretch, while its opponents are starting on average at their own 44-yard line.

That can't keep happening this week to a UC defense that has turned into a very sound unit in limiting big plays (22nd in EPA/rush allowed, 45th in EPA/dropback allowed). KSU is a highly efficient offense (Top-40 in all EPA/success rate stats) and will feast on short fields if it gets a chance.

They've been that efficient while facing terrible field position (121st in average starting field position on offense). Pinning dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson consistently is imperative to owning the clock and tempo of this game across 60 minutes. All eyes are on Mason Fletcher in his final two games at Cincinnati.

“Last two weeks he has not been there," Satterfield said about the punter. "He has to punt the ball better, bottom line. We also have to cover better. It starts with a snap, and then the next thing is the punt. We have to get good hang time. Some people think, well, you just boom the ball. That's not necessarily it. We have to get hang time, and we have to get in the spot where our guys were covering. It all matters, if you punt up a low kick and you punt a little bit away from our cover guys, they're going to get some yards. A lot of it comes back to that, but that's his job, and he's been outstanding his whole career. The last couple of weeks have been uncharacteristic for him. We anticipate him getting it back. We’ll work on all this all week."

Cincinnati will be in business if it can cover kicks/punts better and force Kansas State to pass. They are efficient across the board, but you want the young Johnson dropping back and not running especially this month.

He has just a 106.3 passer rating with a 1-4 TD-INT ratio in three November games. Johnson's been erratic to close the season and Cincinnati needs to force him into a few risky plays because they likely won't be doing that to running back DJ Giddens (1,128 yards on 6.4 YPC, five TDs).

He's the 12th-leading rusher in the country and can control this game by himself if Cincinnati doesn't bow up in the trenches. Kansas State's been a strong offense with terrible field position, UC doesn't stand much of a chance if they let that weakness become a strength again on Saturday.

Prediction: 31-27 Wildcats

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