Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Miami (OH) RedHawks

UC is trying to avoid back-to-back losses to the RedHawks.

Sept. 16, 2023; Cincinnati, OH; Cincinnati Bearcats wide receiver Xzavier Henderson (8) runs with the ball as three Miami (Oh) RedHawks pursue during the NCAA football game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the Miami RedHawks at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Carter Skaggs-USA TODAY NETWORK / The Enquirer-USA TODAY NETWORK

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati football Rivalry run continues this week against Miami (OH) in what is likely the final trip to Yager Stadium in this historic matchup.

The Battle for the Victory Bell is tied 60-60-7 all-time. Cincinnati notched 16 straight wins until falling to the RedHawks 31-24 in overtime at Nippert Stadium last season. Getting back above .500 is crucial to keeping the fan base engaged following a familiar collapse against Pittsburgh.

“We have a lot of ball left, we have a big game this week, obviously, against Miami, and this is what we're all focused on,” UC head coach Scott Satterfield said this week. “It was a very difficult loss. Obviously, we lost by one point on a last-second field goal, that sucks…We feel like we have a good football team. We have a connected football team. We have guys that have a lot of fight in them. And it was shown over the last two days here. So, we're going to continue to battle, continue to go out there, and put a great product out there.”

Cincinnati is a 3.5-point betting favorite as of this writing and a 54.6% favorite on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. Let's dive into the biggest keys to a win on Saturday as Miami enters off a bye week:

Offense: Patience Is Prudent

This game profiles as a grind for Cincinnati this weekend. Northwestern is not good and their offense is flat-out bad, but Miami still went on the road in Week 1 and held them to just one touchdown and 13 total points.

The RedHawks defense is easily its biggest strength after returning eight of the 13 defenders who played at least 300 snaps in 2023. The team picked up right where it left off defensively and enters this game with the 35th-best unit in the country by ESPN's SP+.

Chuck Martin's squad does not give up big plays and forces opponents to work through long drives and execute in the red zone (21st in explosive run rate allowed, eighth in explosive pass rate allowed last season). Cincinnati had a massive problem with that last season and the red-area offense has to be sharp this week. Controlling the clock and hammering away with Corey Kiner & Co. is a strong way to win on Saturday.

“Touchdowns are huge. It was obviously a big part of last year. Just got finished watching it again. It's not fun to watch, not being able to get in the end zone," Satterfield said about the red zone's importance this week. "We were down there several times. They're good, they're stingy. Once they get down there, obviously, watching all the games from last year, they're there like that against most teams. We have to do a great job. We have to get a great plan together. We have to execute the plan on game day. 

"If we get an opportunity in the red zone, we have to find a way to get an end zone. Points is where it's at. Scoring those touchdowns obviously helps you so much more than having to settle for the field goals. But if you do settle for the field goal, you have to knock them down. No matter what, we have to score once we get down in the red zone. I think last year, that's where we fell short for sure.”

Satterfield noted during his radio show this week that Cincinnati's in an open kicker competition now between Carter Brown and Nathan Hawks, a phase of the game that could play a huge role Saturday in a tight projection. Cincinnati went 1-5 scoring red-zone touchdowns in last season's game.

Moving elite linebacker Matt Salopek out of the rushing lanes is imperative after Miami allowed just 3.64 yards per carry with him as the spearhead last season, but 4.8 YPC in Week 1 against Northwestern. Feeding the run game and hitting one or two play-action shots fits Cincinnati's strengths and fits the right path to win on Saturday against a defense you want to tire out and then strike.

Defense: Keep Away From The Big Play

Two big defensive keys ring loudly entering this game and we start with big plays. Miami was not explosive for most of last season, but they lit up Cincinnati with nine plays of 10-plus yards in the upset, plus a crucial pass interference call for big yardage.

Expect more zone coverage mixed looks this season, as Cincinnati should just be trying to wind down this game and outlast a rough Miami offense that lost its best rusher and wide receiver to the transfer portal (127th in SP+ on offense entering Week 3). If UC doesn't let an average rusher in QB Brett Gabbert go wild for 75-plus rush yards again then it should control this outing.

All in all, Cincinnati has to start tackling soundly to combat continuing big play issues (13 big plays allowed against Pitt, 23 missed tackles through two games).

“Well, we have to tackle better," Satterfield said about Cincinnati's 114th-ranked run defense. "A lot of our defense has our safeties coming down making tackles. Our weak safety, we had three different guys come down and miss tackles on some long runs. They're there to make the play, they just didn't make it. So, we have to tackle better."

Limiting big plays and tackling well will neuter this Miami offense completely amidst little signs of 60-minute consistency from that group.

Prediction: 24-21 Bearcats 

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