Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Pittsburgh Panthers

Cincinnati is trying to pair wins across consecutive seasons against Pitt.

Towson Tigers defensive lineman Mazio Randall (9) tackles Cincinnati Bearcats tight end Joe Royer (11) in the second quarter of the College Football game at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

CINCINNATI — The real season begins on Saturday. Cincinnati football goes from a 30-point favorite to a neck-and-neck battle against Pittsburgh at Nippert Stadium. Pat Narduzzi's team comes in looking for revenge for last year's loss in Pittsburgh, arguably the high point of UC's 2023 season.

Cincinnati enters the game a 43% underdog on ESPN's Matchup Predictor and a 1.5-point favorite on the betting line. This is about as close as it gets in college football. ESPN's Bill Connelly projected a 27-27 tie in his SP+ forecast.

"This matchup has been a great rivalry game over the years," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said. "Coach Narduzzi is a guy who coached here and was a defensive coordinator for several years, so he knows a lot about the Bearcats. They are coming off a big win where they scored 55 points (against Kent State). They have a new-look offense with a transfer quarterback from Alabama who was 30 for 40 and had an efficient day.

"Their running back had a big day as well, he is a transfer from Western Carolina. Their defense is very similar with the Pat [Narduzzi] defense. The defense is flying around and putting pressure on the offense and causing havoc. We are looking forward to playing Pitt, and we can't wait to get back in Nippert.”

It should be a much tougher test for UC this time, especially with the quarterback matchup.

Defensive Key To The Game: Win Up Front

The trenches are obviously crucial every game, but Pittsburgh's biggest weakness has to get attacked by what now may be a strength for Cincinnati.

Dontay Corleone looked like his normal self to me during practice on Tuesday and I expect to see him on the field in some capacity (not confirmed as of this writing). It would be massive and help Cincinnati put pressure on one of the weaker offensive lines they'll face this season.

"He hasn’t done the 11-on-11 work, but he's worked individually on some pads and working his hands and his feet, all the different things," Satterfield said about Corleone. "That's not real football, as we know, but I think he's been playing it for most of his life, so I feel like he'll be able to step right in and be able to go.”

Pittsburgh fielded the Power Five’s second-lowest-graded offensive line last year on PFF and only amassed a 54.1 run block grade, along with a solid 72.7 pass block grade this past weekend (four sacks allowed, five tackles for loss allowed). Getting to QB Eli Holstein shouldn't be very difficult.

Having that extra body in the middle to keep up with the no-huddle pace, while being an All-American at that, could flip this from an L to a W for UC. It wouldn't hurt to get more snaps from fellow nose tackle Harris Adams (68.9 grade against Towson on 10 snaps).

"Yeah, totally different," Satterfield said about the offense this year compared to 2023. "They're a no-huddle, fast-paced, spread-all-over-the-place type of offense. You see these types of offenses throughout the country as you turn the TVs on and watch, watch highlights, but they're going to spread you out. They're going to go fast if you give them an off coverage somewhere, they're going to take it, they're going to throw the ball there. It’s basically a take-what-they-give-you-type offense. If you spread everybody out, they're going to hand the ball to the running back, and he's obviously a dynamic player."

Dynamic Desmond Reid is a good nickname after the small, speedy back posted 14 carries for 145 yards and 1 TD, plus one 78-yard punt return for a TD. Cincinnati's tackling on him has to be sharp across defense and special teams.

Offensive Key To The Game: Hit A Couple Home Runs

Pittsburgh hemorrhaged big plays last season and tightened up a bit Saturday but still allowed two explosives of 30-plus yards to a lowly Kent State offense.

Brendan Sorsby, Evan Pryor, and more showed they can turn long fields into quick touchdowns in a hurry…against a mediocre FCS opponent. Scoring multiple 30-plus yard TDs this Saturday would be a greater feat.

"One of the things I'm very impressed with is when they do bring pressure, they're relentless," Satterfield said about Pitt's' defense. "And all his (Narduzzi's) teams have been that way. That's coaching, obviously, because they've all been that way, no matter who the players are. He does a great job with it, and when you do that, you always give yourself a chance when you play great defense. I do think there's a lot of similarities in how he's played defense throughout his whole career."

The Bearcats have more than enough talent to do it after Sorsby dropped a highly efficient 93.3 ESPN QBR in his debut (seventh-best nationally). Pitt doesn't allow a lot of long drives under Narduzzi and that continued last week after allowing a 31.6% successful play rate last season (27th nationally). Cincinnati will likely need to create some long touchdowns to outlast the Panthers (16.2% explosive pass rate allowed last season, 113th nationally).

Catch the game at noon ET on ESPN2.

Prediction: 33-31 Bearcats

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