Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: TCU Horned Frogs

Can the home underdogs pull off an upset?

Nov 23, 2024; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats running back Corey Kiner (21) runs away from Kansas State Wildcats linebackers Desmond Purnell (32) and Austin Romaine (45) during the second quarter at Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images / Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — Momentum or moratorium, elation and despair. Cincinnati is trying to find the right side of that coin in Saturday's season finale against the TCU Horned Frogs (7-4 record).

UC needs this win to earn bowl eligibility and wash away another four-game losing streak in two short years under Scott Satterfield. They'll have to beat the odds to do it. ESPN's Matchup Predictor has TCU winning 52.3% of the time as two-point betting favorites.

The Horned Frogs are 35th in Bill Connelly's SP+ metric, while Cincinnati sits at 68th.

“It’s hard to put that in words," UC head coach Scott Satterfield said about Saturday's importance and notching a bowl bid. "We know how big that would be, obviously, right? I think anytime you can go into an offseason with a win, it just kind of springboards everything for that momentum for the offseason. We have signing day next Wednesday for high school players, and most of those guys are already committed and we know where we're at with that.

"The week after that, the portal opens, so we'll be bringing guys in for that. December is going to be, obviously, extremely busy. If you can go out, get a win, and when you're bringing portal guys in, you get practices. It has a better vibe around here, a lot more positive vibe. You can't really put that in words of how big that would be, to be able to have that for the next three to four weeks bringing guys in, you got bowl practice. It's just a lot better of a feeling, for sure.”

UC is trying to move to 3-1 all-time against TCU, having last played them in 2004.

Offensive Key To The Game: Wide Receiver Separation

TCU is a sound defense across the board and is especially adept in pass coverage. Cincinnati will be able to run the ball in this game, but they've largely been able to run all season, last week was a perfect example. If the receivers continue struggling to get open (or post three-plus drops again) Cincinnati will not be able to keep pace with TCU Tcu quarterback Josh Hoover and the Horned Frogs offense.

It's easier said than done against a defense ranked 27th in dropback success rate allowed, 64th in EPA per dropback, and sports a 89.7 coverage grade on PFF (t-17th nationally). All in all, they are allowing 6.3 yards per attempt (27th nationally). 

Play action could be the elixir here, a spot Sorsby has to start capitalizing on (62.3 PFF grade on PA throws, 8.7 YPA, 78.3 PFF grade on non-PA throws, 6.8 YPA). TCU will likely try to shut down the over-the-top routes, be willing to let Cincinnati run, and force them into long drives. Teams have leaned into the run far too much in these scenarios and end up running out of time to pull off wins.

They rank bottom-50 nationally in rushing attempts per game allowed and rushing yards per game allowed. A few plays where Cincinnati can escape on the back end and hit a deep pass could be the whole difference. Once teams get into the red zone, they score on TCU (66.6% TD rate allowed in RZ, 100th nationally). The Horned Frogs are also super shaky on late downs, ranking 110th nationally in third-down conversion rate allowed (44.12%).

“The misses have been high; the balls have been overthrown," Satterfield said about Sorsby's shaky passing recently. "I think a little bit of it is the mechanics of being balanced and not fading away. It is really just sitting in there, keeping the front shoulder down, making sure the ball is not going to sail on you. I think a little bit of it is him pressing a little bit too much as well, just trying to make every play when you don't have to do that. You have to just take what the defense gives you and take what's coming to you and not trying to make every play perfect.

Cincinnati will not win this game if it hits one or fewer 15-plus yard passes like it has each of the past two weeks. Xzavier Henderson & Co. have to step up and separate more consistently this week.

Defensive Key To The Game: Wall Up Williams, Will Turnovers

TCU running back Savion Williams could blow this game open by himself along with wide receiver Jack Beck. The latter has a whopping 1,007 receiving yards on 17.1 yards per catch (53rd nationally) and nine scores.

UC cornerback Jordan Young has played well this year and it'll take another strong performance to contain the main engine of TCU's seventh-ranked passing offense by success rate and 26th-best in EPA per dropback. Williams is a whole different beast as a Swiss Army Knife in the backfield and out wide.

He's averaging 10.5 yards per catch and 7.3 yards per carry on 100 touches this season. A winning path for this struggling defense (84th or worse nationally in rushing and passing success rate allowed) starts with containing those two talents.

“He's the guy that you have to know where he is at all times," Satterfield said about Williams. "He is the one I was talking about at 6-5, 225 and I think they had him at over 22 miles per hour this year. He is one of their faster guys. We're all blessed with some ability and talent, but usually, we're not all blessed with that much ability and talent, to be that size and to be able to run like a small guy. I think what they're doing is smart on their part, trying to find ways to get him the ball, whether it be in the backfield, whether it be a wildcat, or whether it be out there at wide receiver. He is one of their best players. We have to be aware of him at all times.”

Key in on those fire breathers, and utilize Nipp at Night. UC has to force turnovers against one of the sloppiest teams in the country. TCU is 110th nationally with 20 giveaways this season, basically splitting fumbles lost (11) and interceptions (nine). 

Channel the home crowd, use the cold to jar the ball free like they did earlier in the season and there's a clear path to bowl dancing in the locker room. They have to prove it though, prove the bowl-worthiness entering this game, forcing two turnovers in the last four games.

"I think Texas is probably somewhere around 75 to 80 degrees this time of year. So, they haven't experienced what they'llexperience Saturday night," Satterfield said about the projected freezing temperatures. "I think it will certainly be cold and windy and there could be some snow blowing. I'm probably in favor of it all. Let's get one of these great winter Ohio days. It certainly won't be as comfortable as 70 degrees for a team that likes to spread it around and throw it, so hopefullywe'll use that advantage as well as being able to play in our field, in our stadium, in front of our fans on senior night. I think that certainly has to be an advantage for us.”

Cincinnati has everything to play for in an environment it's practiced in all week. Just enough for the program to take another step.

Prediction: 27-24 Bearcats 

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