Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: Texas Tech Red Raiders

Cincinnati is 0-0-1 all-time in the series.

Houston Cougars linebacker Michael Batton (44) tackles Cincinnati Bearcats running back Corey Kiner (21) in the second quarter of the College Football game at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024. / Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats have their first chance this season to earn a legacy Big 12 win. Texas Tech (3-1) is up next on Saturday night following Cincinnati's 34-0 win over Houston.

This will be the second meeting ever between the two schools (10-10 tie in 1968) and the first as conference members. Cincinnati enters the contest as a three-point underdog and sports a 42.2% chance to beat Texas Tech.

UC is currently ranked 50th in ESPN's SP+, while TTU is 59th.

Cincinnati is yet to win three games in a row under Scott Satterfield as they get a chance to knock down more milestones.

"This game will be at night, it’s a blackout and I’m sure it will be a sellout," Satterfield said about the matchup. "It’s a great environment for football and they are a very good team. Offensively, they have been lighting it up. They have one of the best running backs in the country. He is 230 pounds, and he can run and is a fast, extremely talented back. Their quarterback has been great, and I believe he's leading the Big 12 in touchdown passes. They spread you out, throw it all over the place, and they tempo you to try to get you out of position. Defensively, they gave up a lot of points the first week, but I feel like they have really settled in the last few weeks. Their guys play hard and get after it."

Let's roll into the top keys to victory for Cincinnati on Saturday night.

Offensive Key To The Game: Stay On The Field

Cincinnati is 22nd nationally in time of possession this season and they need to lean into that strength via the ground game on Saturday night. A similar flow to this past Saturday's shutout against Houston is exactly what UC should gun for to take out the crowd and limit one of the busiest offenses in the country.

UC has the personnel to get it done with Corey Kiner (6.3 yards per carry) playing the best football of his career. Tech hemorrhaged ground yards in their lone loss this season and it's the weakest part of their defense entering this one (28th nationally in EPA/rush allowed, 4.44 yards per carry allowed, 87th nationally, 66th in success rate allowed).

"If you only have to defend low to mid-50s, it’s certainly going to help your defense as compared to 80 or 90 plays, which I feel like Texas Tech runs a lot of plays," Satterfield said about the game's tempo. "So that is something that is certainly in the back of my mind. I'm not necessarily going into a game saying, ‘Hey, we have to have the ball for 35 minutes.’ You don't necessarily do that, because offensively, we're just trying to move the football. 

"I think what has worked out is that we have been able to have some long drives. This year we've had some 15, 16, and 17 play drives, and occupying the clock a lot. But while you're doing that, your defense is getting the rest. They're getting fresh. The coaches have more time to go over scheme."

Cincinnati has been stellar at moving the football (23rd nationally in total offense, 467.5 yards per game) and is getting better in the red zone week-to-week but has to keep executing in a tough environment (104th nationally in RZ TD rate, 52.94%). It's an ideal matchup on that front given Tech's leaky tendencies in the red area (63.16% TD rate allowed, 87th nationally).

Defensive Key To The Game: Weather The Storm

Saturday should be Cincinnati's toughest test of the season factoring in opponent, game time, and location. It'll get even tougher if UC's defense has to be on the field for 90-plus plays.

That's the mark Texas Tech will try to hit here entering the game averaging 81.3 snaps per game this season (fourth nationally). 

"We have talked about all of those things with our guys," Satterfield said about the high pace his defense is about to face. "I feel like our guys are ready for those types of plays, and it's just about execution whenever they happen.” 

Tahj Brooks is a big reason why Tech stays on the field that much, entering the game with a 13-outing streak of 95-plus rushing yards. He's the bell cow at 5-10, 190 pounds and leads a balanced attack that's largely due to his consistency (25th in EPA/rush, 34th in rushing success rate).

“It's difficult, I think to try to simulate that," Satterfield said about Brooks. "Obviously, we use several guys in practice to be able to try to simulate that. But you're not going to simulate a guy who's 230 pounds that runs like he does. When you're trying to defend the pass, and you're spreading everybody out, you're getting a little bit of thin in the box there and if he hands it off now you only have one guy trying to come tackle him. So, we have to really rally to the football, try to get a lot of hats to the ball whenever he does run it.”

Winning early downs and forcing this game to fall on Behren Morton's passing shoulders is a vivid upset path. He's been flat-out bad against FBS opponents. Bearcat Bunch broke down the numbers and it's not pretty (3-2 TD-INT ratio, 5.1 yards per attempt in two Power Conference games this season).

He's thrown the most passes in the country so far (180), and Cincinnati should want him throwing all game with how inconsistent he's been down-to-down (59.5 ESPN QBR this season, 62nd nationally). Texas Tech ranks 44th nationally in passing EPA/play (some strong moments), but 80th in success rate (those strong moments are few and far between).

His protection has been solid (five sacks allowed), but it hasn't led to good results against comparable teams. Cincinnati has the veteran presence to confuse the junior QB and work an interception for the fourth consecutive game.

Catch the game this Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Prediction: 30-24 Bearcats

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