Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys To The Game: UCF Knights

Cincinnati is trying to avoid its first losing streak of the season.

UC's running back Corey Kiner (21) pushes through UCF's defense at Nippert Stadium on Saturday November 4, 2023. UCF leads the game at halftime with a score of 14-10. / Phil Didion/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats football team is fresh off its bye week and looking to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this season. UCF is up next trying to break their own two-game losing streak.

Cincinnati has been very good coming off bye weeks in recent years, winning five of its past six games in this scenario. Although, they've lost back-to-back games against UCF (4-5 all-time), which boasts one of the nation's best rushing attacks (fourth in rushing offense at 282.4 yards per game).

“I know when you lose a couple of games in a row, you're going to want to come out and play your best," Satterfield said about UCF. "Kind of like that dog backed in the corner mentality and they are going to fight, so we know we're going to get their best shot. This has also been a great rivalry between the two programs, so you know you're going to get that intensity. It doesn't change our preparation. We have to go in with the same preparation and get ready to play. We have to have a great mindset as we head down, and that's where our focus starts. Last week, we had our bye week, and we talked about that and going out and having our very best week of preparation to go down and play a great game.” 

Cincinnati enters the game as a three-point betting underdog and boasts a 42.6% chance to win on ESPN's Matchup Predictor. Let's dive into the keys to victory for this road matchup.

Offensive Key To The Game: Keep Sorsby Cookin

UC quarterback Brendan Sorsby has been fantastic this season and it'll have to continue this week. The sophomore ranks 14th nationally in ESPN's QBR metric, plus, leads all Big 12 passers in rating (165.6) while completing 66.3% of his attempts.

He's spread the ball around well all year, including some love for Tony Johnson last week and he'll have good looks to keep this strong run rolling in Orlando. UCF is stout against the run (23rd in EPA/rush allowed on College Football Insiders) but is much more vulnerable through the air (86th in EPA/dropback allowed, 106th in dropback success rate allowed).

"That's the one thing we have to continue to be able to do and take what the defense gives us and not try to force the ball," Satterfield said about spreading the rock around. "If we hit the underneath when they're all sinking, that's great. That'swhat we have to do, and I think Brendan (Sorsby) has to continue to do that. I think the guys around him within the offense are good enough to get yards and first downs and touchdowns, and we've seen that throughout the season. We justhave to be able to continue to do that.” 

UCF won't have former Bearcat Bryon Threats in this game (entered transfer portal), which is a big blow as their third-highest-graded coverage man on PFF. Fellow former Bearcat Deshawn Pace leads the team in coverage grade (81.7 coverage grade). Outside of him, UC can target multiple names on the Knights with three high-snap secondary players giving up a 104-plus NFL passer rating.

Rushing will be much tougher. Sorsby may have to add more with his legs on scrambles against a unit allowing the 23rd-best EPA/rush mark nationally and the fourth-best rushing success rate. They allow just 90 rush yards per game (14th nationally).

UC doesn't have to go nuts on the ground to get a win here. Grind out close to four yards per carry and do the maindamage through the air and UC should be in great shape. The Knights don't cause a lot of havoc, with just five total turnovers and a measly three sacks (last place nationally) on the year.

Sorsby should have very comfortable pockets to work with from his offensive line and be able to keep dialing up options in the process.

Defensive Key To The Game: Force KJ Jefferson To Throw

It's an interesting dichotomy on each side of the ball this week. Rough matchups for both defensive units and whoever can weather the storm better will come out on top.

Cincinnati is a horrific run-defending team, going up against one of the best rushing attacks in the nation (No. 1 nationally in rushing success rate, 29th in EPA/rush). UCF's only thrown it 118 times for a reason (122nd nationally).

"Now, not only are you defending 10 guys, but with their quarterback, you're defending 11," Satterfield said about UCF'soffense. "I think that's the whole premise of being able to run your quarterback, is that now we have to have a guy assigned for the quarterback and one guy assigned for the running back. I believe that's why they have been so good at what they do. When you load up a box, that's when the play action comes. 

"So, you have to do a great job of tackling and trying to make them one-dimensional. You have to try to slow the running game down. I know everybody that plays them tries to do that, and they have a hard time doing it. We certainly have our work cut out for us, but it comes back to being where we're supposed to be, assignment, and then getting a lot of hats to the ball.”

Jefferson has 61 of UCF's 249 carries this season, an average of around 50 attempts per game as a team, which they'll definitely try to hit against UC's lowly unit (111th in rushing success rate allowed, 109th in yards per carry allowed).

Dontay Corleone's been his normal, elite self, but he may have to play out of his mind to fully slow down RJ Harvey (6.6 yards per carry, 9 TDs), and Penny Boone (6.1 YPC, 2 TDs). Cincinnati needs to tackle better this week and swarm as a unit (season-high 15 missed tackles against Texas Tech). There were plays available against TTU in the run game, but they let the tackle slip away too often.

Jefferson's been flat-out bad as a passer this season (99th nationally in ESPN QBR, 7-4 TD-INT ratio), all while the team lost key wide receiver Xavier Townsend to a transfer portal entry in recent weeks. If Cincinnati can hold UCF to around four yards per carry, they should win this game.

Catch all the action at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN2.

Prediction: 34-31 Bearcats

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