Cincinnati Bearcats Football Keys to the Game: West Virginia Mountaineers

It's the 22nd meeting in the rivalry.

West Virginia Mountaineers quarterback Garrett Greene (6) carries the ball on a touchdown run in the third quarter during an NCAA college football game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and the West Virginia Mountaineers, Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023, at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, W. Va. The West Virginia Mountaineers won, 42-21. / Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

CINCINNATI — A heated rivalry adds an outing this weekend when the West Virginia Mountaineers come to town to face Cincinnati football. WVU is likely missing its starting quarterback due to injury and enters as four-point betting underdogs for the 22nd meeting between the two schools.

Cincinnati needs just one win to punch a bowl bid this season and is ranked 49th nationally in Bill Connelly's SP+ metric, while WVU is 59th.

The Mountaineers last visited Nippert Stadium in 2009 and are coming off a 42-21 win in the series last season. That result should light a fire under Cincinnati ahead of the noon kickoff.

“Last year against West Virginia toward the end of the season, we were not playing great. We go three-and-out, then they go score, we go three-and-out, and then they go score. It was just a snowball in the first half, and you look up and you'redown 28 to seven before you can even blink," Satterfield said. "And we didn't do hardly anything right. This week we'relooking on the defensive side as a different defense for us. We're not the same. 

"Now offensively, we can look at it and look and see the things that we did not do well. It was a bad taste in our mouths, for sure. I think for the guys that did play last year, they understand that feeling. And we have a lot of guys that were not here as well. What we try to do is learn from the things we did not do well last year against them, and then try to correct that. As we move forward, it's a different game plan this year. That one didn't work, so we have got to move forward with a different one. Our guys are in a different state of mind.”

Let's rattle off some keys to the game between two teams coming off of bye weeks.

Offensive Key To The Game: Air Out On Extra Rest

Brendan Sorsby has a chance to light up another opponent this week after a couple of games just off his mark leading intothe bye week. He is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country across the full season and will destroy this secondary if the accuracy is tighter.

West Virginia enters this game with a rough defense, especially through the air. They are ranked 117th in dropback success rate allowed and 122nd in EPA/dropback allowed. No FBS team has a lower PFF team coverage grade than West Virginia (38.6 overall).

Dive deeper into the traditional stats and it's not hard to see why the Mountaineers made a defensive coordinator change midseason: 132nd in yards per pass allowed (9.3), 115th in passing TDs allowed (17), and yards per game allowed (261). It's a complete mess on the backend. All while Cincinnati has a healthy protection group up front for Sorsby.

“I think the structure will be the same," Satterfield said about WVU's new defense coming out of the bye week. "It's reallyhard to go in the middle of a season and just change a lot. Anytime you're making a change like that, just over a period of time, you then are going to try to make the guys feel comfortable about whatever you're trying to do and that's really for them not to make mistakes. I think what it does, it makes you, if anything, simplify a little bit more. 

"Now, what could be different is when you're looking at third downs, third down pressures and red zone, those typethings, could structurally be a little bit different, depending on who's calling it. I think just the structure, the defense, just getting the guys lined up, having them be where they're supposed to be, is the best thing that you can do to help your kids out. I would anticipate that. I don't think there'll be a whole lot of change in what they're doing.”

WVU is much better against the run, ranking 40th in rushing EPA allowed and 26th in success rate. UC shouldn't abandon the run by any means, but a heavier pass diet will play into WVU's weaknesses and it could be perfectly timed with Sorsby feeling healthier after a week off.

Defensive Key To The Game: Weaponize Field Position

Stronger tackling, plus a precise game from Mason Fletcher will set up Cincinnati for a win on Saturday. No unit in the country has been primed with better field position to defend this season than Cincinnati, while the WVU drives have faced tough prospects to start out (121st nationally).

Add in the absence of Garrett Greene this week at quarterback, and you get a ripe situation for the Bearcats. Nicco Marchiol (89th nationally) led his team to a win over Arizona in his lone start this season, but the Wildcats have a much worse defense than Cincinnati on the ground and through the air (84th or worse in EPA and success rate allowed).

UC has plenty of Marchiol tape to gameplan with now as well.

“As far as talking about their quarterbacks, they are both really good. One is right-handed, one is left-handed, but I don'tthink that really matters, other than maybe a couple plays throughout a game," Satterfield said on Tuesday. "I think they are both really good football players, we will see. We anticipate playing the quarterback that played last week. 

"So obviously, we have had this happen before, throughout the season, with different quarterbacks that have had to play, but I still feel like they are going to run what they run on offense. We got to be a great stop and run this week. We know that they have some outstanding running backs. Our offensive line is really good, and Neal [Brown] does a great job running a football. Obviously, they will throw it, but I think the main thing is to stop the run when you are playing the West Virginia football team.”

Expect WVU to run the ball a lot with the backup QB (31 Marchiol carries this season) while leaning on Jaheim White (5.8 YPC) and CJ Donaldson (453 yards rushing and six TDs). 

If Fletcher posts a solid performance and UC keeps the missed tackles in the 10-12 range (92nd nationally in PFF tackling grade, 0-3 record this season when missing 15-plus tackles), then UC should get a win against the Mountaineers.

Prediction: 33-27 Bearcats

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